Oscar odds update: Zoe Saldana (‘Emilia Perez’) now predicted to win Best Supporting Actress

There’s been a major shake-up in Gold Derby’s Oscar odds for Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) has officially broken her tie with Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”). Saldana now has leading 39/10 odds to win the trophy, compared to Deadwyler’s second-place odds of 4/1. But, don’t forget, it’s still quite early in this awards season, and things will undoubtedly keep changing as our Experts, Editors and Users continue to update their predictions.

Saldana (as undervalued lawyer Rita Moro Castro) and Karla Sofia Gascon (as titular crime boss Emilia Perez) are essentially co-leads in the Spanish-language French musical dramedy from writer/director Jacques Audiard. However, to avoid any potential vote-splitting, Saldana has opted to compete in the supporting actress category during this awards season, while Gascon is facing off in the lead actress race.

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Sometimes all it takes to win an Academy Award is a good “narrative,” and Saldana has that in spades considering she is way overdue to receive her first career nomination. The American actress is almost single-handedly responsible for selling out blue makeup and green makeup every Halloween as fans eagerly dress up as her characters from the “Avatar” and “Guardians of the Galaxy” franchises, respectfully. “Avatar” (2009) and “Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022) were both Best Picture Oscar nominees, while all three of the “Guardians” movies (2014, 2017 and 2023) reaped below-the-line noms, so voters definitely know who she is.

SEE ‘Emilia Perez’ cast is early favorite to win at SAG Awards

Following Saldana and Deadwyler in our Best Supporting Actress Oscar predictions are likely co-nominees Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) at 15/2 odds, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) at 8/1 odds, and Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) at 9/1 odds. The Top 10 is rounded out by Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Toni Collette (“Juror #2”), Joan Chen (“Didi”) and Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”).

Out of Gold Derby’s 27 Oscar Experts from major media outlets, the following 11 have Saldana in their #1 positions: Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Cole Jaeger (The Oscar Expert), Debra Birnbaum (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Mark Johnson (The Contending), Matt Neglia (Next Best Picture), Shawn Edwards (WDAF-TV Fox), Thelma Adams (Gold Derby) and Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV).

As for our 12 website staff Editors, five of us believe Saldana will prevail at the 97th Academy Awards: Rosen, Birnbaum, Eng, Chris Beachum and Matt Noble.

Finally, 11 out of our Top 24 Users, who did the best predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, are backing Saldana: Aaron Christopher, AndrewMilito, Austinmh02, DNDIKE, GuitarLord25, Jon Ablett, TheGreatestPredictor, hozier, lady_bird, swnana and tolisgkoufas.

Have YOU made your Oscar predictions yet? It’s fun and easy — get started right now! The nominations will be announced on January 17, 2025.

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