Oscar predictions: Who will win Sunday's Academy Awards – and who should

Hollywood guilds and critics' groups have weighed in and Oscar pundits have exhausted their expertise. It's time for the main event.

After the past two pandemic-affected years, the 94th Academy Awards are another big step back toward normalcy, with just as much uncertainty and drama as usual with who and what might be getting Oscars.

Netflix Western "The Power of the Dog" arrives to Sunday's ceremony (ABC, 8 ET/5 PT) with a leading 12 nominations, yet has slowly lost frontrunner status over the past several weeks. While several acting categories and best director seem locked up, the races for best picture and best actress could be nail-biters. Not only is there a host again but there are three: Regina Hall, Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes. And the Academy's stoked controversy by announcing it will pre-record eight technical categories for the live show.

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So what to expect for a night usually full of the unexpected? Here are our predictions for all the major categories:

BEST PICTURE

"Belfast"

"CODA"

"Don't Look Up"

"Drive My Car"

"Dune"

"King Richard"

"Licorice Pizza"

"Nightmare Alley"

"The Power of the Dog"

"West Side Story"

Will win/should win: "CODA"

"Dog," Jane Campion's psychological cowboy drama, led the very eclectic pack at the start, and but has since watched as the feel-good "CODA," a Sundance favorite about a deaf fishing family and its hearing daughter, became the little movie that actually could. A win at the Producers Guild Awards (a major bellwether since they use the same preferential ballot as the Oscars) and being named best cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards point at a likely "CODA" victory – the last time a film took PGA and SAG but didn't win best picture was 2006's "Little Miss Sunshine." This time, the heartwarming choice is the easy one: The world's a crazy place right now and "CODA" is an inclusive, musically tinged and tear-jerking gem that, unlike many of its competitors, feels needed.

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ACTOR

Javier Bardem, "Being the Ricardos"

Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Power of the Dog"

Andrew Garfield, "tick, tick ... BOOM!"

Will Smith, "King Richard"

Denzel Washington, "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Will win: Smith

Should win: Garfield

Last time there was a tie in an acting category was 1969 (Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand), so maybe it's been long enough we could swing another one? After winning at SAG, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA and Golden Globes, Smith is an overwhelming favorite to finally win Oscar for playing the Venus and Serena Williams' coach dad in "King Richard" – and, in a sense, for the rest of an iconic career. (He totally should have won for "Ali.") But what Garfield does is singularly spectacular in "BOOM!": He learned how to sing and play piano to embody the late Jonathan Larson in a musical about making something memorable before it's too late. Garfield will be back in this category again, no doubt.

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BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Olivia Colman, "The Lost Daughter"

Penélope Cruz, "Parallel Mothers"

Nicole Kidman, "Being the Ricardos"

Kristen Stewart, "Spencer"

Will win/should win: Chastain

At one point this race was a wild one, with early favorite Stewart snubbed by SAG and no one pulling ahead. While there's still a chance for a surprise because of the talent involved – and Colman and Kidman being former winners – this looks like Chastain's Oscar to lose after going on a run at SAG and Critics Choice. And after a couple previous nominations, Chastain deserves that first win for her transformation into an empathetic portrayal of disgraced televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker, who embraced love instead of hate while being surrounded by a community of powerful conservative Christians.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ciarán Hinds, "Belfast"

Troy Kotsur, "CODA"

Jesse Plemons, "The Power of the Dog"

J.K. Simmons, "Being the Ricardos"

Kodi Smit-McPhee, "The Power of the Dog"

Will win: Kotsur

Should win: Smit-McPhee

Kotsur has been riding the waves of goodwill for "CODA," and his wins at SAG, Critics Choice and BAFTA for his portrayal of a deaf father connecting with his singing daughter in heartfelt fashion have cemented his favorite status. But "Dog" star Smit-McPhee, whose winning streak Kotsur has supplanted, is even more key to his movie. The 25-year-old has a career-best turn in "Dog" as an artistic, seemingly meek bookworm mocked by his cruel new cowboy uncle (Cumberbatch). However, the character has a lot more going on internally than it appears, and proves essential to the film's gut-punch ending.

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SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley, "The Lost Daughter"

Ariana DeBose, "West Side Story"

Judi Dench, "Belfast"

Kirsten Dunst, "The Power of the Dog"

Aunjanue Ellis, "King Richard"

Will win/should win: DeBose

Though this category has often honored big stars (Viola Davis, Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie), this year it seems destined to fête a future A-lister, with the multitalented DeBose a near-certain lock. There's a full-circle nature to the prospect of the Broadway "Hamilton" alum, who's run the awards table as the feisty and soulful Anita of Steven Spielberg's reimagined "West Side Story," winning the same Oscar the original Anita, Rita Moreno, took home 60 years ago. There's history to be had as well: DeBose would be the first Afro-Latina and openly queer woman to snag an Academy Award. But it also hails a woman of the moment everybody needs to know and a throwback sort of talent who can sing, dance and act with the best of them.

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DIRECTOR

Kenneth Branagh, "Belfast"

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, "Drive My Car"

Paul Thomas Anderson, "Licorice Pizza"

Jane Campion, "The Power of the Dog"

Steven Spielberg, "West Side Story"

Will win: Campion

Should win: Spielberg

After taking the Directors Guild Awards' top prize, Campion's riding high in this Oscar saddle with her second golden guy in sight. (She first won best original screenplay for "The Piano" in 1994.) Sorry, Sam Elliott, but she does one heck of a job crafting a Western epic that looks stunning while probing toxic masculinity on the ranch. That said, what Spielberg accomplished is just as impressive and with a certain higher degree of difficulty. The legendary filmmaker tackled a beloved Broadway and movie musical with exciting gusto, putting his own cinematic signature on it, maintaining reverence and also improving the work in terms of storytelling, authenticity and social commentary.

Ranked: All of Steven Spielberg's movies (including new musical 'West Side Story')

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Oscars predictions: Who will win best picture, actor and actress?