Oscars Best Actress race: Mikey Madison (‘Anora’) takes the lead, but this is still a wide-open contest

Previously known for roles in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “Scream 5” and TV’s “Better Things,” 25-year-old Mikey Madison achieved a breakthrough earlier this year at the Cannes Film Festival as the title character in “Anora,” which ended up winning the Palme d’Or. Now, as the fall film festival season has heated up, she has taken the lead in our overall odds for Best Actress at the Oscars according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. But a closer look at our predictions shows that this race is still wide open.

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For instance, Madison is predicted to win by five of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, which is more than are predicting anyone else in the category, but it’s far from a majority. Right behind her with support from four Experts is Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”). Then there are three Experts apiece betting on Karla Maria Gascon (“Emilia Perez”), Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”). One Expert is betting on Ronan for her other role this year in “Blitz,” while the last Expert is going out on a limb for June Squibb (“Thelma”). That’s seven predicted winners in a category that can only accommodate five nominees.

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Our other elite pundits don’t agree either. Gold Derby’s Editors are split six ways, with Jolie and Ronan (“Outrun”) getting the most support. Our Top 24 Users are divided between eight different women, with Madison out front. And our All-Star Top 24 are backing six different actresses, with Adams getting the advantage. And I haven’t even mentioned other strong contenders in the race like Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl“), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) and Julianne Moore (“The Room Next Door“), to name just a few. Will this race start to narrow down anytime soon? For now, let’s appreciate just how many standout performers there are to be able to discuss.

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