Oscars Best Supporting Actress odds update: Zoe Saldana now dead even with Danielle Deadwyler

Zoe Saldana has waited quite a while for her first Oscar nomination, and now it looks like she could win too. The “Emilia Perez” co-star has recently been gaining on Best Supporting Actress front-runner Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”), and now they’re tied. Both women get 4/1 odds of prevailing, according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users.

Deadwyler started the season leading our odds for her performance as Berniece Charles, who clashes with her brother (John David Washington) over a family heirloom. “Piano Lesson” is based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning play by August Wilson, which earned S. Epatha Merkerson a Tony nomination on Broadway for playing Berniece. Then a TV adaptation earned Alfre Woodard an Emmy nomination as Berniece. An Oscar nom for Deadwyler would complete the trifecta, and she has an Oscar IOU after being shockingly snubbed for her lead performance in “Till,” so voters may be motivated to make it up to her.

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Saldana could also be seen as due for a nomination and win. She starred in Best Picture nominees “Avatar” and “Avatar: The Way of Water.” And she has well over a decade of movie star cred built up from her work in the “Star Trek” franchise as Uhura and in the Marvel Cinematic Universe as Gamora. Now, just as Robert Downey Jr. went straight from the MCU to an Oscar for “Oppenheimer,” so too might Saldana be rewarded for her performance in “Perez” as a lawyer helping a cartel leader start a new life in her true gender.

As of September 26, Deadwyler was predicted to win by six of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, compared to seven betting on Saldana. But Deadwyler has the advantage with Gold Derby’s Editors: six say Deadwyler, two say Saldana. Our All-Star Top 24 agree with the Editors: 12 say Deadwyler, nine say Saldana. And our Top 24 Users are split right down the middle: nine say Deadwyler, nine say Saldana. So the race is indeed close, though Saldana’s recent trajectory gives her a lot of momentum — and maybe soon she’ll have the lead in our odds outright.

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