The strikes are settled, but some see slower times ahead for Wilmington's film industry

If members of the Screen Actors Guild vote to officially end their strike this week and approve the deal union leaders stuck with studios and streamers, something they are widely expected to do, things might start getting back to normal for Wilmington's film industry.

Since mid-May, productions have been at a standstill as writers and actors work out their differences with production companies.

But with both strikes now all but settled, what will this new normal look like? Especially in Wilmington, which hosts the bulk of movies and TV shows shot in North Carolina. That's due to a sizeable crew base and two world-class film studios: Cinespace, which recently purchased and renamed the EUE/Screen Gems facility here, and newly opened independent studio Dark Horse, which has already announced plans to expand.

Boom or bust?

Some industry watchers have predicted a boom year for film production in 2024, with a glut of projects delayed by the strikes ramping back up.

Welcome good news arrived this week when it was revealed that hit Netflix show "Outer Banks," which shot its first three seasons in South Carolina but whose creator, Jonas Pate, lives in Wilmington, would film some scenes for season four this month in Wrightsville Beach. That would make it the first production in the Wilmington area since the strikes.

Others are more cautious about the future, however, saying that if the deals studios struck with unions cause filming costs to increase, something many expect, that could lead to fewer productions.

Add in the financial woes of some streaming services, which drove a boom in production a couple of years ago but which struggle to make money (according to the Washington Post, only Netflix is profitable), and the next few months are tough to predict.

Johnny Griffin, director of the Wilmington Regional Film Commission, said he's "heard more about (the industry) not being as strong" recently than he has about production roaring back to life from the strikes.

"It's not like after COVID when all these productions came rushing back," Griffin said.

With the studios essentially saying, "We're going to have to save money somewhere," Griffin said, that could leads to fewer productions and/or productions with smaller budgets.

Along with "the whole streaming thing trying to figure itself out," Griffin said, "the boom times may be over. The good news is, the strikes are behind us, so we can at least start to move forward a little bit."

When will filming return?

After a record year of $416 million for film spending in North Carolina in 2021, and a 2022 that posted $258 million in spending, the sixth best finish ever, 2023 will fall well short of those numbers.

Just two major productions have shot in Wilmington this year. TV movie "Zoey 102" shot here early in year and aired on Paramount+ over the summer, but "The Untitled Josh and Lauren Project," which was set to star former "Dawson's Creek" actor Joshua Jackson and was being produced by Oscar-nominated director Ava DuVernay, shut down mid-production in May and was officially shelved last month.

Griffin said he's been talking with two productions that could conceivably start work here before the end of the year. With the holidays looming, however, unless they move forward quickly, it may be January or later before we see film crews and trucks out on the streets of Wilmington again.

It's not unheard of for shows or movies to start shooting in December; that's what happened with Showtime's country music miniseries "George & Tammy" in late 2021. In general, however, holiday downtime "frustrates the process" of making a project, Griffin said, and producers often feel it's easier to wait.

Until then, Griffin said, "We're just kind of standing by."

One cause for hope: Cinespace, which has studios all over the world, could steer some projects to Wilmington that might not otherwise have come here.

Film crews still waiting

Jennifer Lea Long, who has worked in the art department of such Wilmington-shot productions as "Iron Man 3" and "The Black Phone," said most of the chatter she's hearing points to Wilmington not seeing much of anything production-wise "until the beginning of the year."

Film professionals like her have been out of work, or working a variety of other jobs, since filming shut down in May. The impact that has on the local economy is difficult to measure, but the resumption of production would certainly provide a boost, not only for film workers but also for the local businesses they and their employers patronize.

Long and other Wilmington-based crew members have reported clearing six figures during boom years for film, but that won't happen this year. Long said the scenic shop she runs is is doing a "film sale Dec 9 and 10, (just) in time for Christmas. Gotta keep the side hustles for now!"

One of Wilmington's more notable side hustles by unemployed film workers this year was the "Chapel of Horrors" haunted house, which was created by makeup and special effects artists and drew thousands of fright fans last month.

What's coming up?

In addition to "Outer Banks" this year, the rumor mill is churning with possible projects coming to Wilmington next year, including one with a pair of big-name stars, but nothing is confirmed.

Locally shot Amazon Prime drama "The Summer I Turned Pretty" has been approved for a third season, and while no announcements have been made regarding whether it's coming back to Wilmington, it would seem a pretty good bet for 2024.

Some of the book that season three of "Pretty" is based on takes place in Europe, however, so it's possible that its local footprint might not be quite as big as it was the first two years if it does return.

This article originally appeared on Wilmington StarNews: SAG-AFTRA strike is over: When will Wilmington film resume?