Tony Awards 2024 predictions: ‘Hell’s Kitchen’ or ‘Outsiders’ — which will win Best Musical?

It’s not just the humidity that has Midtown Manhattan sweating bullets — it’s the Tony Awards!

While several races on Broadway’s biggest night are all but wrapped up, the most coveted prize, Best Musical, is going right down to the wire.

Nobody is totally sure if “Hell’s Kitchen” or “The Outsiders” takes it.

I guarantee this year’s telecast will be a lot more fun than the bump-free road to “Oppenheimer” at the Oscars.

Here’s who I predict will win at the Tonys, which air Sunday at 8 p.m. on CBS.

Best Musical: ‘The Outsiders’

Yes, there are five nominees: “Hell’s Kitchen,” “Illinoise,” “Suffs,” “Water For Elephants” and “The Outsiders.”

But the real competition, as it has been since the day the nominations were announced back in April, is between Alicia Keys’ “Hell’s Kitchen” and the twangy adaptation of S.E. Hinton’s young-adult novel “The Outsiders.” 

I’ve spoken to voters for all of these shows, and it’s the Greasers and Socs that get the most impassioned responses.

“Everyone says ‘Hell’s Kitchen,’ but I say ‘The Outsiders,’” one voter told me. “It’s a work of art.”

More blasé was a “Hell’s Kitchen” advocate who was not as effusive about the reason they clicked the box next to that show. “Not sure why!” they said.

The “Outsiders” voter also made a historical observation: “It’s so much better. It’s like ‘Wicked’ and ‘Avenue Q’ — everyone predicted ‘Wicked’.”

Broadway still talks about the Tonys 20 years ago when the hilarious puppet musical scored a shocker win against Elphaba thanks to a shrewd “vote your heart” campaign.

But what this battle reminds me more of, though, is “Beautiful: The Carole King Musical” vs. “A Gentleman’s Guide To Love And Murder” a few years later: a jukebox juggernaut against a book adaptation that’s building momentum.

You see, “Gent’s Guide” toppled Tapestry, in part, because it had so many producers who were conveniently also Tony voters.

Now, consider that “The Outsiders” has about double the number of producers as “Hell’s Kitchen.” The cynic in me believes that disparity could matter.

On the flip side, many say Keys’ show has snared the 100-or-so “road voters” who would like it to come to their cities.

This category will be awfully close, but I’ve talked to enough insiders who say “Outsiders.”

Best Play: ‘Stereophonic‘

Stevie Nicks once sang something about landslides.

As much as I admired “Prayer for the French Republic” and “Mary Jane,” David Adjmi’s “Stereophonic,” about a fictional 1970s band that’s basically Fleetwood Mac, is the only contender here.

It’s more than three hours long and has original rock songs.

Voters can’t resist.

Best Musical Revival: ‘Merrily We Roll Along‘

Remember a few months ago when everybody thought (wrongly!) that the excellent revival of “Merrily We Roll Along” would be in a tight fight with the dark and atmospheric “Cabaret”?

Willkommen, bienvenue, reality! “Cabaret” has zero chance.

Stephen Sondheim’s reformed flop “Merrily” wins easily, and “Cabaret” will deservedly settle for best scenic design (Tom Scutt).

Best Play Revival: ‘Appropriate‘

Branden Jacobs Jenkins’ play is just over 10 years old, and yet here it is duking it out with Ibsen.

While everybody is split on whether the relatively new play is really a revival, per se, it has more fans than “An Enemy of the People” (a hit, though it is) or the long-closed “Purlie Victorious.”

And the actors… 

You can bet on Jonathan Groff winning his first Tony, Best Actor in a Musical for “Merrily We Roll Along”; and his co-star Daniel Radcliffe will take Featured Actor in a Musical.

I suspect Jeremy Strong from “Succession” will finally get over the sting of losing all those TV awards to Kieran Culkin by accepting the Best Actor in a Play for “An Enemy of the People.”

And Sarah Paulson most likely has Actress in a Play in the bag over her “American Horror Story” co-star Jessica Lange (“Mother Play”) for her vicious turn in “Appropriate.”

Featured Actress in a Musical is neck and neck. It could go to Lindsay Mendez for “Merrily” — it would make sense to award the whole trio — or Kecia Lewis for her knockout vocals and emotional arc in “Hell’s Kitchen.” My pick is Lewis.

Actress in a Musical is even tougher.

Will it be Kelli O’Hara, who did some of her best work ever as a spiraling drunk in “Days of Wine and Roses”? Or new star Maleah Joi Moon, whose voice is stunner in “Hell’s Kitchen”? I’m calling it for O’Hara, if only because the role is meatier.

Or, well, boozier.