Variety’s Awards Circuit Podcast Reveals Its Final Emmy Predictions for Big Wins and Potential Surprises
Welcome to Emmy week! And we’re already off to a record-breaking event, as FX’s “Shōgun” has made history before the Primetime Emmys ceremony even takes place. With 14 wins over the course of the Creative Arts Emmys weekend, “Shōgun” is now the most-honored program in a single year — besting “John Adams” (13 in 2008) and “Game of Thrones” (which won 12 in 2015, 2016 and 2019). And again, the big awards aren’t coming until this weekend, and “Shōgun” will very likely add several more numbers to that total.
Not enough for the folks at FX to celebrate? They also are aiming to surpass “The Bear’s” record last year for the most wins by a comedy in a single year (10). So far, after last weekend, “The Bear” has 7 this year. I think beating that 10 is very much in the cards. FX will likely be this year’s network champ — the first time HBO or Netflix hasn’t held that honor in years.
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It promises to be a busy weekend on the events calendar, as Emmy parties are back! Of course, last year’s Emmys — pushed into January due to the Hollywood strikes — made things a bit more of a muted affair. Apparently not this time. Even though the industry is definitely still grappling with some tough issues (like DirecTV’s standoff with Disney, which means those satellite customers might not be able to watch the Emmys live — unless they have an antenna), there will still be much toasting over this coming week.
On this week’s edition of Variety’s Awards Circuit Podcast, it’s a Mega Roundtable edition — as the hosts preview the 76th Emmys, and give their final predictions for who will win and who might be snubbed on Sunday. Listen below!
As we mentioned above, “Shōgun” hit it big this weekend at the Creative Arts Emmys; among other milestone moments, Sandra Oh finally won her first Emmy in the outstanding TV movie category for co-producing “Quiz Lady,” after 14 nominations and being the most nominated person of Asian descent at the Emmys without a win. Maya Rudolph won again for outstanding character voice-over performance for “Big Mouth” – she tied the overall record and she became the first woman to win the category four times. And this was the Oscars’ first-ever win for outstanding variety special (live) and most wins ever (four) in a single year.
Now, courtesy VegasInsider.com, here’s a detailed list of more records that could be broken next weekend:
? Robert Downey Jr. (“The Sympathizer”) could become the first actor to ever win an Oscar, Daytime Emmy and a Primetime Emmy in the same year – he won the supporting actor Oscar for “Oppenheimer,” Daytime Emmy for outstanding lifestyle program for “Downey’s Dream Cars” and he could win in the outstanding supporting actor in a limited series at the Primetime Emmys for “The Sympathizer.”
? “Saturday Night Live” already extended its record as the most awarded TV program in the history of the Emmys and it became the first TV program to ever win 100 Emmys (including its specials) – it has won 101 Emmys thus far (including its specials). It already won 6 Emmys on the first day of the Creative Arts Emmys, and it is nominated for 2 more Primetime Emmys at the main ceremony next week, so it could potentially extend this record.
? “Shōgun” already broke the record for the most Emmys won by a show in a single year and the most Emmys won by a drama series in a single year – at the Creative Arts Primetime Emmys, Shōgun already won 14 Emmys and they are nominated for 8 more Emmys at the main ceremony, which could extend their record even further.
? “The Bear” could break its own record for the most Primetime Emmys won by a comedy series in a single year (for its first season, it won 10 Emmys) – this year, it has already won 7 Creative Arts Primetime Emmys and it is nominated for 9 more Emmys.
? “RuPaul’s Drag Race” could extend its record as the most awarded reality program in the Emmys history (across categories) – it has won 29 Emmys, so a win at the main ceremony in the outstanding reality competition category would make it its 30th win.
? “Curb Your Enthusiasm” could extend its record for the most nominated comedy series in the outstanding comedy series without a win – they have been nominated 11 times but have never won.
? Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) could become the first Black actress to win in the outstanding lead actress in a Comedy Series category two times (last year, Brunson joined Isabel Sanford as only the second Black actress to ever win in the category and the first one to do so in 40 years); if Bruson, Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) or Maya Rudolph (“Loot”) win in the outstanding lead actress in a comedy series category this year, it would make it the first time in history that an Black actresses win in the category for two consecutive years in a row.
? Selena Gomez (“Only Murders In The Building”) could become only the second Latina actress to win in the outstanding lead actress in a comedy series category, joining America Ferrera.
? Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”), Steve Martin or Martin Short (“Only Murders In The Building”) could break Eugene Levy’s record for the oldest actor to win the Emmy for lead actor in a comedy series (Levy was 73 when he won for “Schitt’s Creek” and David is 77, Martin 79 and Short 74).
? D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (“Reservation Dogs”) could break Michael J.Fox’s record for the youngest actor to win the Emmy for lead actor in a comedy series (Fox was 25 when he won for Family Ties and Woon-A-Tai is 22 years old). Woon-A-Tai could also become the first Indigenous actor to win in the lead actor in a comedy series category (or any acting category).
? Carol Burnett (“Palm Royale”) could become the oldest actress to win in the outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series category – Burnett will be 91 at the time of the 2024 Primetime Emmys ceremony, which would also make her the oldest winner of any acting winners at the Primetime Emmys of all time – as of now, the oldest winner was John Gielgud, who was 87 when he won for “Summer’s Lease.”
? Liza Colón-Zayas (“The Bear”) could become the first Latina actress to win in the outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series category.
? Tyler Jesse Williams (“Abbott Elementary”) or Lionel Boyce (“The Bear”) could become only the second Black actors to win in the outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series category and the first one in more than 40 years (the first and only actor to ever do so was Robert Guillame in 1979).
? Bowen Yang (“SNL”) could become the first Asian American actor to win in the outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series category.
? Anna Sawai (“Shōgun”) or Maya Erskine (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”) could become the first actress of Asian descent to win in the outstanding lead actress in a drama series category at the Emmys.
? Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) could join a rare group of actors who won Emmys for both comedy and drama categories – Aniston last won outstanding lead actress in a comedy series for “Friends” in 2002 and this is her second nomination in the drama category for “The Morning Show.”
? If Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) wins, a rare feat would be achieved – it would be the third time that a portrayal of the same character of the same series wins the Emmy for a different actor – Staunton portrayed Queen Elizabeth II in the final season of “The Crown” and both Olivia Colman and Claire Foy, who portrayed the Queen in the previous seasons, won the Emmy for lead actress in a drama series (interestingly, both Foy and Colman won for their final seasons portraying the Queen).
? Hiroyuki Sanada (“Shōgun”) could become only the second Asian actor to ever win in the outstanding lead actor in a drama series category and he could also become the first Japanese actor to ever win in this category.
? Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) could break the record of Richard Kiley and become the oldest actor to win in the lead actor in a drama series category – Kiley was 66 when he won for “A Year in the Life,” Oldman will also be 66 at the time of the 2024 Primetime Emmys ceremony, but he will be a month older than Kiley was when he won.
? Tadanobu Asano (“Shōgun”) or Takehiro Hira (“Shōgun”) could become the first Asian actors to win in the outstanding supporting actor in a drama series category; they would also become the first Japanese actors to win in the category.
? Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”) could become the first Australian actress to win in the outstanding supporting actress in a drama series category.
? Sofía Vergara (“Griselda”) could become the first Latina actress to ever win in the outstanding lead actress in a limited series category; Vergara would also be the first Colombian actress to win in this category.
? Lily Gladstone (“Under the Bridge”) or Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”) could become the first Indigenous actors to win in the outstanding supporting actress in a limited series (or any acting category).
? Nava Mau (“Baby Reindeer”) could become the first Latina actress to win in the outstanding supporting actress in a limited series category, and she could also become the first transgender actress to ever win an Emmy in any acting category.
? “The Amazing Race” could extend its record as the most awarded program in the outstanding reality competition program category – it has won 10 Emmys and it received its 21st nomination in 2024.
? RuPaul is nominated at the Primetime Emmys ceremony (in the outstanding reality competition program category as a producer of “RuPaul’s Drag Race”), so he could extend his record as the person of color with the most Emmys ever won (now 11, could be 12).
Meanwhile, Variety‘s Clayton Davis shares his picks for the 25 categories set to be revealed on Sunday night:
Drama Series
“Shōgun” (FX)
Comedy Series
“The Bear” (FX)
Limited Series
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Lead Actor (Drama)
Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun” (FX)
Lead Actor (Comedy)
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)
Lead Actor (Limited)
Andrew Scott, “Ripley” (Netflix)
Lead Actress (Drama)
Anna Sawai, “Shо?gun” (FX)
Lead Actress (Comedy)
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (Max)
Lead Actress (Limited)
Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Supporting Actor (Drama)
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear” (FX)
Supporting Actor (Limited)
Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Supporting Actress (Drama)
Lesley Manville, “The Crown” (Netflix)
Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (Max)
Supporting Actress (Limited)
Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Talk Series
“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
Scripted Variety Series
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (Max)
Reality or Competition Program
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
Directing (Drama)
“Shо?gun” (FX), Frederick E.O. Toye, “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky”
Directing (Comedy)
“The Bear” (FX), Christopher Storer, “Fishes”
Directing (Limited/TV Movie)
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max), Issa López, series
Writing (Drama)
“The Crown” (Netflix), “Ritz” by Peter Morgan and Meriel Sheibani-Clare
Writing (Comedy)
“The Bear” (FX), “Fishes” by Joanna Calo, Christopher Storer
Writing (Limited/TV Movie)
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix), Series by Richard Gadd
Writing (Variety Special)
“Alex Edelman: Just For Us” (HBO/Max), Alex Edelman
See the rest of Clayton’s predictions here.
ABC will broadcast the 76th Emmy Awards live from downtown Los Angeles’ Peacock Theatre on Sept. 15. The telecast will be available for streaming the next day (from Sept. 16 to Sept. 22) via Hulu.
Variety’s “Awards Circuit” podcast, hosted by Clayton Davis, Jazz Tangcay, Emily Longeretta, Jenelle Riley and Michael Schneider, who also produces, is your one-stop source for lively conversations about the best in film and television. Each episode, “Awards Circuit” features interviews with top film and TV talent and creatives, discussions and debates about awards races and industry headlines, and much more. Subscribe via Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or anywhere you download podcasts.
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