Bond market gets a Fed wake-up call after pricing in a recession

Bond yields rose, even though markets got a bigger rate cut than many expected. Hereā€™s why. - Getty Images

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The Federal Reserve moved in a big way on Wednesday to immediately lower borrowing costs for the first time in four years.

The central bankā€™s slashed its short-term policy rate by half a percentage point, bringing it down to a target range of 4.75% to 5%.

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But Wall Street still didnā€™t get exactly what it wanted. Longer-dated Treasury yields, which are used as a peg to price auto loans, mortgages and more, were climbing off the yearā€™s lows touched earlier in the week.

Higher yields suggest that, despite the Fedā€™s big rate cut out of the gate, Wall Street was disappointed by what the central bank telegraphed about the months to come.

ā€œWe believe rates across the curve had come down too far, too fast,ā€ said Cindy Beaulieu, chief investment officer, North America, at Conning, which has about $160 billion in assets under management.

While the initial rate cut of 50 basis points came as a surprise, Beaulieu said Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his afternoon press conference to telegraph a careful approach toward cutting rates in the future.

Powell called Wednesdayā€™s move ā€œthe beginning of this process,ā€ but said the Fed isnā€™t in a rush and will act carefully at each subsequent meeting. ā€œWe can make a good strong start. And Iā€™m very pleased that we did,ā€ he noted.

Beaulieu thinks that approach sounds prudent, even if it isnā€™t what all investors wanted to hear. ā€œWe still have a solid economy, and a consumer who is not giving up,ā€ she said. ā€œLonger rates moving higher makes a lot of sense.ā€

The 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose 4 basis points to 3.685% as of 3 p.m. Eastern time, coming off lows for the year set earlier in the week.

Beaulieu thinks the 10-year yield could end the year north of 4%, and even at 4.25%. ā€œThe market talks about pricing in a soft landing, but when driving rates so low, that sounds a lot more like a recession,ā€ she said.

Volatility in the bond market has been running high since the Fed started hiking rates in 2022, causing historical losses in bonds and whiplash across financial markets. While inflation and rate hikes no longer look like the big threats they were to investors two years ago, shocks in the rates market can still be painful for portfolios.