The Great Shift? As job openings, quits taper off, power shifts from workers to employers

Two years ago, when Richard Jordan switched manufacturing jobs, he reaped the benefits of an employer feeding frenzy for his services.

In the end, Jordan, 58, a senior manager who oversees purchasing and production planning, was offered a 15% to 20% raise from his prior salary and negotiated an additional bump.

Now, with his auto supply company moving his position from Lincoln, Nebraska, to Mexico, Jordan is job hunting again.

He’s drawing plenty of interest, notching about 10 interviews in just a few months. But he’s seriously considering taking a job that would keep his salary at about $140,000. The position also would entail a one-hour commute from his home in Kearney compared to his current five-minute hop to the factory.

“I don’t see everyone offering big money,” Jordan says, referring to the bidding war he enjoyed in 2021.

Is the job market slowing down?

The hottest labor market on record is cooling, a development that’s shifting negotiating leverage from workers to employers and could be further underscored by a report on job openings on Wednesday. Fewer job candidates are haggling over salary, snagging signing bonuses and getting hounded by recruiters, according to survey results set to be released this week by ZipRecruiter, a leading job site.

“Some of the increased leverage that workers experienced during the pandemic….that control seems to be waning,” says Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist.

The job market hasn’t yet tilted in employers’ favor, but “it’s more centered,” says Heather Merrick, managing director of white-collar job placement for Express Employment Professionals, a staffing firm.

That should mean decidedly smaller pay increases for American workers broadly by early next year, some economists say. Workers normally don’t welcome more modest raises. But slowing wage growth likely would go a long way toward bringing down inflation from 3.7% to the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. And it would prod the central bank to start cutting interest rates after its flurry of aggressive hikes has hammered stocks and raised the prospect of recession, says economist Dante DeAntonio of Moody’s Analytics.

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at a meeting on Wednesday.

The tilt in bargaining power has been particularly dramatic in recent months, the ZipRecruiter data shows:

? 29% of job switchers tried to negotiate a higher salary after receiving a job offer in the third quarter (July-September), down from 41% the previous quarter.

? 19% got a counteroffer from their old employer and were asked to stay, down from 26%.