One number shows why the economy might not get the immediate relief many hope for

Anna Kim/Getty, NeoLeo/Getty, Tyler Le/BI
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is the key rate to watch for many borrowers.

  • The bond yield has been rising, not falling, since the Fed announced its big rate cut.

  • As bond markets had priced in the rate cut well ahead of time, borrowers might not get much more relief.

The most important interest rate for borrowers in the US is moving higher, not lower, after the Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut on Wednesday.

That rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield, a key lending benchmark for everything from mortgages to corporate debt.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to an intraday peak of 3.77% on Thursday, higher than before the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday.

The rate on the 10-year bond closed at 3.65% on Tuesday.

The divergence in a falling federal funds rate and a rising 10-year Treasury yield highlights the ultimate truth in markets, which is that they're forward-looking and investors had adjusted their outlook for rates long before the Fed decision.

That's evidenced by the fact that the 10-year US Treasury yield had already dropped 125 basis points from its 5% peak in October, when it became clear that the Fed was done hiking rates.

According to Michael Reinking, a New York Stock Exchange senior market strategist, the slight bump in the 10-year Treasury yield suggests investors are feeling good about the potential for a soft landing in the US economy, as such a scenario would suggest the Fed doesn't need to cut rates as aggressively as the market previously thought.

"The reaction within Treasury markets was most telling yesterday," Reinking said. "Fixed income markets were pricing in a very aggressive rate cutting cycle suggesting some skepticism with the soft-landing narrative. The aggressive action taken yesterday seems to have acquiesced some of those concerns, potentially leading to a less deep cutting cycle."

However, it also means the 10-year Treasury is moving higher since the decision.

The move highlights that the Fed's short-term lending rate doesn't have the impact on long-term borrowing rates — for instance, the 30-year mortgage rate — that many may have been hoping for, and rate cuts might not end up providing much relief for borrowers.

Mortgage rates barely budged on Wednesday, while short-term interest rates on high-yield savings accounts and money-market funds dropped within 24 hours.

The 10-year Treasury yield is a lending benchmark for everything from home loans to corporate debt. While companies and consumers have both seen some relief from lower interest rates since they peaked in October, it might be a while before they see rates come down further.