Traders Bet on More Easing as Fed Opts for Half-Point Rate Cut

Traders Bet on More Easing as Fed Opts for Half-Point Rate Cut Ā· Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Traders ramped up their bets on the pace of future US interest-rate cuts after the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark by half a point and signaled more cuts coming this year.

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The market is now pricing in another 70 basis points worth of rate reductions at the Fedā€™s two remaining meetings this year, reflecting a far more aggressive stance than policymakers. Officials on Wednesday forecast just a half-point of further easing in 2024, though Chair Jerome Powell made clear that Wednesdayā€™s decision wasnā€™t indicative of the pace ahead for cuts.

Treasuries, which are set for a fifth-straight month of gains in September, slipped after the Fedā€™s decision and Powellā€™s remarks. Still, Jamie Patton, co-head of global rates at the TCW Group Inc., said traders are correct to price in more rate cuts than Fed officials implied in their so-called dot plot.

ā€œThe market has historically done an OK job of predicting the amount and pace of early cuts,ā€ she said. ā€œBut, in the most-recent three cycles, rates have grossly underestimated the total amount of cuts. We think this time is no different, and weā€™ll see that same theme again this cycle.ā€

Ahead of the announcement, a majority of forecasters had predicted the Fed would kick off its rate-cutting cycle with a quarter-point cut on Wednesday. However, some economists ā€” including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bloomberg Economics ā€” had expected a half-point move, while traders were split.

The move caps months of uncertainty over the timing and scale of the Fedā€™s first rate cut. Now, the focus shifts to the pace of reductions ahead.

Officialsā€™ updated quarterly forecasts showed the median projections were for the funds rate to fall by yearā€™s end to 4.375% ā€” representing a further half-point of total reductions this year. By the end of 2025 and 2026, the median forecasts are for 3.375% and 2.875%, respectively.

The market-implied pricing of rate cuts, by contrast, puts the rate at below 3% by July.

ā€œThe fact that the dot plot is not suggesting more 50-basis-point moves further feeds the narrative that this is a start ā€” and proactive ā€” rather than a trend,ā€ said Nathan Thooft, a senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management in Boston. ā€œIt probably also suggests they regret not starting with 25 basis points at the last meeting.ā€