The recent tube shootout that took place at the WSL Tahiti Pro gave surf fans plenty to chew on as we approach 50 days out from the Olympics. New storylines emerged and plenty of long term stories began to burn hotter. 

Last week the ISA officially released the first round heats for the competition – who will face who in the non-elimination first round. From the new method of seeding surfers to several surfers on breaks from the Championship Tour who will have to shake off the competition rust, here are three heats that I’ll be paying especially close attention to in July.

Tatiana Weston-Webb vs Molly Picklum vs Caity Simmers

The new method of seeding surfers, that is, using the 2024 World Surfing Games (WSG) ranking as the primary tool, will have immediately noticeable repercussions. When I look at the women’s draw, I see six to seven surfers that I feel all have a good chance at the gold. Three of them are seeded into the same first round heat. 

Tati Weston-Webb showed she is more than capable of the Olympic gold with her perfect 10-point ride in the Tahiti Pro semifinals. Molly Picklum and Caity Simmers have emerged as the most exciting young talents in women’s surfing and have track records that show they are more than capable in waves of consequence. But, unfortunately, two of them will go straight into the elimination round (round two), while the winner will advance straight to round three.

The reason these three heavy hitters are squaring off in the first round is due to their 2024 WSG results. Weston-Webb’s second-place finish earned her the top Olympic seed, while Caity Simmers’ 65th place finish sent her to the bottom of the pecking order. Picklum’s 21st place at the WSG earned her a middle of the pack 16th seed at the Olympics. 

We could very well see an early exit from one of these three favorites given that two will have to claw through an extra heat.

Filipe Toledo vs Alonso Correa vs Kanoa Igarashi

Saying that Filipe Toledo’s opening round heat is a must-watch is kinda picking the low-hanging fruit. But it can’t be understated. Coming off several disappointing performances in heavy waves, his father admitting that Filipe is afraid of  Teahupo’o, back-to-back world titles, and a one-year break from the CT, clearly everyone wants to see how he performs in his return to competition. Toledo recently paid a visit to the venue ahead of the Tahiti Pro and, despite the army of photographers shooting the sessions, he was oddly absent from the deluge of social media content that ensued with the exception of one video he posted. Was he not getting waves? Or is there an industry wide conspiracy to not post them?

Toledo, who comes in with the 12 seed, will have a test right off the bat against Kanoa Igarashi and Alonso Correa. Igarashi has never had one breakout performance at the wave, but he’s shown that he’s more than capable of navigating a Teahupo’o tube. And Alonso Correa has been showing his proficiency in big tubes during his practice sessions in Tahiti. Toledo will have his hands full. If he doesn’t figure out the spot soon, he could very easily get sent packing early in the event. 

Ramzi Boukhiam vs Joao Chianca vs Billy Stairmand

It’s been known that Ramzi Boukhiam likes big barrels, but his recent GOAT-slaying, semifinals performance at the Tahiti Pro (his best-ever on the CT) has thrust him into the medal conversation for Paris 2024. The Moroccan goofy-footer comes in as the two seed due to his silver medal performance at the WSG and might be a (not-so) dark horse to earn the gold. 

However, Boukhiam will have to face Joao Chianca right off the bat – somewhat of a wildcard match up. Chianca is just now returning to competition this year after recovering from a near-death incident at Pipeline last year. When Chianca is on his game, he certainly is capable of making a run at the podium, but how he’ll surf in his return to competition at Tahiti is anyone’s guess. Based on the monster tubes he’s been posting at Teahupo’o during his training trips, it’s safe to say he’s back to 100 percent, but who knows if the nerves of donning the competition jersey in heavy surf could influence his surfing.

The post The 3 Most Compelling First-Round Heats at the 2024 Olympics first appeared on The Inertia.