As the cancellations mount, so do the fears about theatre's likely return

When we spoke to Andrew Lloyd Webber in December, the composer was buoyed by news of the vaccine roll-out and felt confident that his new West End production of Cinderella could open in May 2021.

However, a leading commercial producer believes that the path to recovery for theatre may be much longer than that. “There’s been a paradigm shift since November. Although the vaccine provides a light at the end of the tunnel, new mutations of the virus have created uncertainty as to just how long the tunnel is.”

He also takes his cue from what is happening in related sectors, noting one minister who said that music festivals such as Glastonbury are unlikely to take place this summer. “My personal view is that performances with socially distanced audiences may not occur until May at the earliest, and that it will be some months before those restrictions are further eased.”

Certainly, it seems like the sector’s confidence has been shaken. A planned concert version of West End musical Come From Away, due to take place in February, has been cancelled, and the full production’s return delayed to June 18. The Les Misérables concert, which was suspended in December when London entered Tier 3 restrictions, was due to reopen in mid-February, but has now cancelled performances until at least the end of that month, while the UK premiere of Disney’s Frozen, planned for April, has been postponed. It was also announced today that Regent's Park Open Air Theatre's new 101 Dalmatians musical won't be part of its 2021 summer season.

That means the industry faces fresh challenges for the year ahead. The lifeline provided by the Culture Recovery Fund was only meant to last until the end of March, and the new round of funding – which not everyone will win access to, given the high levels of need – is intended to “support cultural organisations as they transition back to a viable and sustainable operating model during April to June 2021.” What happens after that?

The fund by itself is not a panacea. Its generosity has been spread widely among not just theatres, but also museums, galleries, music venues, heritage, and libraries. In England, theatre has only laid claim to ￡123.5 million in grants – or less than eight per cent of the fund – for an industry that has lost well over a billion pounds in revenue and incurred hundreds of millions more in actual losses.

And potential threats still lie ahead. Even if performances can resume without social distancing by July, they won’t be back to ‘normal’, since there will likely still be limits on international travel and far less tourism than usual.

There is also the question of how much disposable income the public will want to spend on theatre tickets. In a November 2020 report, the Office for Budget Responsibility anticipated that the economy would return to pre-virus levels of activity at the end of 2022 on the basis that “restrictive public health measures” would only need to be kept in place until the spring. That assessment now looks optimistic.

At the end of last year, Eleanor Lloyd, the new president of the Society of London Theatre, identified two key factors to enable the sustainable return of performances: insurance, and theatre tax relief.

Similar to live music and festivals, Government-backed insurance would allow productions to get off the ground in the first place by reassuring producers and investors, while theatre tax relief can drive economic activity and create jobs as the industry – and the economy – recovers.

In the absence of a private market, Government-backed insurance is essential to mitigate the risk that another regional shutdown – or an outbreak within the company or audience that the industry has so far managed to avoid – leads to a show’s closure.

But the potential for mutation of the virus means this is a long-term issue, and we’re still in the dark in terms of vaccine data. Recent news from Israel that a single dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine might not provide as much protection as originally hoped, with 10,000 new Covid infections reported despite the vaccine roll-out success, is concerning.

But this insurance must be coupled with a stimulus package to provide a fertile environment in which the business of theatre can flourish. Prior to the onset of Covid, the sector was growing faster than the economy as a whole, with other countries seeking out British practitioners in an attempt to replicate this creative engine to the benefit of their own domestic economies.

Given the economic headwinds and uncertainty faced by the industry, according to another producer an increase or expansion of the theatre tax relief scheme is “the most effective mechanism to accelerate the return of the sector once it is safe to do so.”

Producers are seeking an increase in the current rate of theatre tax relief to incentivise private investment in shows. This scheme, which has been in place for a number of years, rewards economic output and job creation – and the cost to the Government is dwarfed by the sector’s contribution to the Treasury.

Theatre tax relief has had an extraordinary effect on UK theatre by making it a more attractive place to initiate productions, and to remain competitive with Broadway. Recent American shows such as Tina: The Tina Turner Musical started here, while Disney is launching its brand-new version of Beauty and the Beast at Leicester Curve instead of in the US.

The need for this uplift is even more pressing in light of the recent Save Our Stages Act passed in the US – worth up to $10 million for each individual production – and Tuesday’s announcement that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has proposed a similar tax relief measure to restart Broadway theatre productions.

The benefit to the theatre industry is contingent on the creation of shows and jobs – the majority of which requires significant investment – and the value for the wider UK economy is enormous.

A recent KPMG report, The Future of Towns and Cities Post COVID-19, points out that with many more people working for home and a huge drop in commuter footfall, it will be cultural activity that draws visitors back into urban centres.

With the risk greatest for those towns and cities outside of London with “limited cultural offerings”, theatre can play a key role in the Government’s levelling up agenda and revitalising our high streets. Most regional theatres have been saved by the recovery fund, but many of those buildings will remain empty unless producers are prepared to mount touring shows again.

If we want to see our country thriving again post-Covid, thinking seriously about sustained support for theatre through insurance and tax relief is vital.