In numbers – how worrying is Portugal's rise in coronavirus cases?
The Government yesterday announced (Sept 3) that Portugal will keep its travel corridor, meaning British holidaymakers can continue to return from the country without going into a 14-day quarantine.
It was expected that Portugal would be red-listed in Thursday's announcement, as cases in the country have now reached 23.1 per 100,000 over a 7-day average.
The threshold for a UK quarantine in recent weeks has been 20 cases per 100,000 (7-day cumulative figures), which Portugal has exceeded for days now. It is currently on 23.1 cases per 100,000. All other European countries to have exceeded this figure – including Spain, France and Croatia – have been stripped of their travel corridors.
However, Grant Shapps Tweeted to say that Portugal retains its travel corridor: “We continue to keep the Travel Corridor list under constant review and won't hesitate to remove countries if needed,” he said.
“However, there are no English additions or removals today. Nonetheless, holidaymakers are reminded – 14-day quarantine countries can and do change at very short notice.”
Holidaymakers returning from Portugal to Wales and Scotland will now have to self isolate as the Government's there have both taken the country off their safe lists from 4am today (September 4) and tomorrow (September 5), respectively.
If Portugal's cases don't drop, it might not stay on England's and Northern Ireland's "green lists" going forward. Let's look at the figures.
How many coronavirus cases does Portugal currently have?
Since the pandemic began, Portugal has reported 58,633 coronavirus cases. Last week (August 28- September 3), it recorded 2,359 new positive tests of Covid-19. This was an increase of 806 cases on the previous week’s figure of 1,573 (August 21-27).
After a strict lockdown at the height of the pandemic, Portugal is now largely open for business – but has seen a steady increase in cases over the last four weeks. Between August 7 and August 13, 1,375 new positive tests were reported; in the following week, there were 1,478.
Though the figures are steadily rising, the rate is much slower than it was in April: Portugal has only experienced around 10 per cent of its total cases over the last month.
Will UK travellers now have to quarantine when they return from Portugal?
Not at the moment.
The UK Government usually removes a country’s ‘travel corridor’ status – and enforces quarantine measures for returning travellers – if its cases exceed 20 per 100,000 people. Portugal currently has an average of 23.1 cases per 100,000 people.
Of course, Portugal has only just been added to the travel corridor list. It became a ‘safe’ destination on August 20, following a drop in cases to 14.9 per 100,000 – lower than the threshold set by the Government.
However, following the return of visitors to its holiday hotspots, cases in Portugal have risen. There were 23.1 coronavirus cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to September 3, up from 15.4 in the seven days to August 27.
If Portugal’s ‘green’ status is revoked, it will likely be announced next Thursday evening by Grant Shapps, Transport Secretary. In previous weeks, holidaymakers have been given a return deadline of 4am on the following Saturday; if they return after this time, they are required to quarantine on arrival for 14 days.
How does that compare to other countries?
Let’s follow the UK Government's lead, and look at the metrics of infections per 100,000 people. With an average of 23.1, Portugal currently has a higher rate of infection than Greece (14.2), the Netherlands (22.9), Italy (14.8), and Germany (9.8). The UK is currently at 14.5 cases per 100,000.
At the opposite end of the scale, the US is at 88.4, and Spain at 107.
Experts have said that Portugal needs a 'miracle drop' in cases to avoid going back onto the UK's quarantine list. Meanwhile, Croatia – which joined the naughty step just as Portugal left – has a current average of 44.7 cases.
Which areas of Portugal are seeing spikes?
The regions with the highest concentration of Covid-19 cases appear to be clustered on the coast and major cities. The region of Lisboa e Vale do Tejo, which includes the capital and its suburbs, currently accounts for over 50 per cent of cases.
The Algarve region, on the southern coast, is also experiencing a surge.
These areas, of course, are popular with holidaymakers – which may strengthen the case for revoking Portugal’s air corridor status.
How many people have died in Portugal from Covid-19?
The country has reported a total of 1,829 deaths from Covid-19, or 178 per one million citizens. In total, 42,427 people are reported to have fully recovered from Covid-19 in Portugal, with others still experiencing symptoms or undergoing treatment.
This death rate is relatively low. By comparison, taking into account population sizes, Spain has had 625 deaths per one million residents; the UK has had 625 per 1m; and the USA 566 per 1m.
