The Oscar underdogs that deserve to win (but probably won't)

The Academy Awards “recognize and celebrate all aspects of the arts and sciences of moviemaking through renowned awards for cinematic achievement” according to its website. But that doesn’t mean they don’t get things wrong from time to time. “Brokeback Mountain” lost to “Crash” for best picture, and Robert Redford (“Ordinary People”) beating Martin Scorsese (“Raging Bull”) for best director are two egregious examples.

More often than not the Oscars will let a mediocre film rise to the top. (See “CODA” beating “Power of the Dog” and other examples). In the acting categories, it is often the most acting, not the best acting that is rewarded. (This explains why La Streep is frequently nominated for her hammy performances.)

Even the screenplay awards are deemed prizes that signify, “Your film is really great, but we can’t give it best picture.” (See last year’s “Women Talking” as an example of an adaptation, and “Get Out” for an original screenplay).

But if the Oscars are the ultimate prize for cinematic achievement, there are some award-worthy films and performances this year that deserve recognition but are longshots to win. As such, here are this year’s Underdog Oscars, to honor those that may not get a chance at the podium.

01 Best picture

“Oppenheimer”  is all but guaranteed to win and possibly even sweep several categories after it led with the most nominations this year. Nolan’s biopic about the father of the atomic bomb is exactly the kind of long, historical prestige film the Academy likes to honor.

What deserves to win is director Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things,” an eye-popping allegorical fantasy — it's phantasmagorical! — about a young woman (nominee Emma Stone) who learns about life and sex while also developing language and motor skills. It’s not unlike its fellow nominee, the juggernaut “Barbie” in several respects — except it’s better.

But this year’s best picture underdog is “American Fiction,” Cord Jefferson’s brilliant and biting comedy-drama about race, and how a Black academic (Jeffrey Wright) finds unexpected — and unwanted — success when he pens a pandering so-called Black novel that becomes a bestseller. “American Fiction” has a slim chance to upset “Oppenheimer,” but it features an ending that bites the very Hollywood hand that feeds it. And that would make its winning even more delicious.

“The Zone of Interest,” which is arguably the least commercial film to ever be nominated for best picture, has an even slimmer chance to win, but it will be rewarded with the best international film statue instead.

02 Best director

Director Christopher Nolan is expected to be one of the many "Oppenheimer" wins for the night.

However, this year’s best director underdog is Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall,” which exacts a remarkable pull on the audience for two and a half hours as a woman (nominee Sandra Hüller) is tried for possibly killing her husband. Featuring extensive and intense courtroom scenes, and possibly the greatest marital spat ever committed to film, Triet’s drama will likely pick up the best screenplay prize, which acknowledges its achievement.

03 Best actor

The best actor race was favoring Paul Giamatti for his role in “The Holdovers,” perhaps as compensation for being snubbed for “Sideways” two decades ago. But the oddsmakers are now expecting the Oscar to go to Cillian Murphy for his performance in/as “Oppenheimer,” which makes sense given the big push for that film.   The underdog in the race is Colman Domingo, who has to settle for the honor of being nominated. Domingo has been generating Oscar buzz in recent years with his performances in everything from “Zola” to “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” And it is satisfying if unsurprising that he scored yet another nomination for “Rustin.” Domingo delivers a blistering work as the gay civil rights leader, and while his performance is often big when he inspires folks to help organize the largest peaceful protest” even getting folks to sing. But Domingo is also moving when he cries, being told by Ella Baker (Audra McDonald) to put his differences aside and work with Dr. Martin Luther King (Aml Ameen). Rustin tells Ella that he likes his men to be passionate and smart. Domingo is both throughout “Rustin” which is why his feisty performance deserves the Oscar.

04 Best actress

This race was initially focused on Lily Gladstone’s strong, often silent performance in “Killers of the Flower Moon” as she would make history were she to become the first Indigenous actor to be win an Oscar. But the oddsmakers are now favoring Emma Stone’s maximalist performance in “Poor Things,” which involves considerable physical and verbal dexterity.

The underdog here is Sandra Hüller, whose does exceptional work as Sandra, a writer accused of killing her husband in “Anatomy of a Fall.” From her opening scene, where Sandra is practically flirting with a young woman who is interviewing her, to her deliberate and caring conversations with her blind son Daniel (Milo Machado-Graner), she comes off as a funny, likeable, caring person.

But then Sandra is absolutely stoic on the stand as she is cross-examined for practically every decision she has made in her life. Watching her react  —  by not reacting  —  as a recording seemingly incriminates her and accusations fly, shows how masterful Hüller’s performance truly is. And that Sandra’s utmost concern that her friend and lawyer, Vincent (Swann Arlaud) believes her to be innocent is full of drama. A scene of Sandra crying in a car is astonishing and should be her Oscar clip. Hüller was also magnificent in “The Zone of Interest,” as the privileged, selfish wife of a Nazi commandant, but her performance in “Anatomy” is staggeringly great.

05 Best supporting actor

The Oscar will likely go to Robert Downey, Jr. for “Oppenheimer,” which aligns with the film’s domination. Downey delivers solid work as Lewis Strauss, and the prize may be seen as an opportunity to reward his body of work over a decades-long career.

The underdog here is Mark Ruffalo, whose comic turn as the cad Duncan Wedderburn in "Poor Things." His rants are hilarious, and Ruffalo’s mugging is a comic highlight. The actor can wring laughs by revealing his incredulity at Bella’s behavior; his expressions of shock are priceless. Watching Ruffalo process what Bella has done provides a giddy pleasure, especially when he deadpans, “Oh,” or “Bella!” because he expresses so much emotion in a single word response. The actor gives what may be a career best performance here. It is a shame he is a longshot to win. But at least he was nominated — unlike his costar Willem Dafoe, who was also fantastic in “Poor Things,” but was snubbed this year.

06 Best supporting actress

Da’Vine Joy Randolph is a lock for this race for her kitchen scene in “The Holdovers.” It is next to impossible for anyone to spoil her chances of winning, as she's collected statuette after statuette during this awards season.

The underdog in this category is Jodie Foster in Netflix's “Nyad,” who delivers an ingratiating performance as Bonnie, Diana Nyad’s (nominee Annette Bening) ride-or-die bestie and coach who joins the 60-year-old Nyad on an “adventure” — swimming from Cuba to the Florida Keys. Equal parts cheerleader and drill sergeant, Bonnie understands the rush that achieving against the odds provides and watching her convince others to help her and Diana accomplish the impossible is inspiring.

While Bening is terrific in the title role, Foster steals her every scene with her tough love telling a hospitalized Diana about her experience “watching her die,” or when truly exasperated, quietly asking, “Do you have any idea how exhausting you are as a friend?” Foster’s Bonnie may be second banana, but she engenders real compassion when she asserts herself letting viewers in on her life even if Diana is blind to Bonnie’s desires. And when Bonnie practically goes hoarse coaching Diana on her historic swim, it is impossible not to share her triumph. If only Foster could triumph at the Oscars.

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07 Best original screenplay

“Anatomy of a Fall” is being touted for the original screenplay prize, as indicated above. Which makes the Samy Burch-penned “May December” – the multilayered drama (or is it a comedy?) inspired by the Mary Kay Letourneau scandal – the underdog.   Burch’s script about actress Elizabeth (Natalie Portman) following Gracie (Julianne Moore), whom she will play in a movie about her tabloid life, is a brilliant and puzzling drama about truth and lies that prompts viewers to recalibrate things in almost every scene, not unlike “Anatomy of a Fall.”

08 Best adapted screenplay

The adapted screenplay award will likely go to “Oppenheimer,” though it would be great to see “American Fiction” steal its thunder for its caustic dissection of race (and class). Cord Jefferson made some minor changes in adapting Percival Jackson’s novel “Erasure,” such as changing the setting from DC to Boston (so the film can take advantage of Martha’s Vineyard), but it captures the key concepts at the heart of the story regarding race and taste, as well as the absurdities of academia, white privilege, literary awards, family dynamics and more. It is often very funny and moving, which “Oppenheimer” is not.

The 96th Academy Awards will be presented live on Sunday, March 10 at 7 p.m. ET on ABC.