Four years after COVID: How are restaurants doing? Westchester, Rockland owners tell all

Four years after COVID shut down restaurants, the Washington, DC-based National Restaurant Association is "cautiously optimistic." Their recently released 2024 State of the Restaurant Industry report predicts the forecast for sales to top $1.1 trillion nationwide. This is a new milestone for the industry, which will employ more than 15.7 million people.

Those are the national stats, but how is it really in the Lower Hudson Valley? Westchester and Rockland restaurateurs are mixed in their assessments with some saying they're seeing an upswing while others are less confident.

First, some perspective: Since January, there have been 26 new dining establishments that have opened in Westchester and at least five in Rockland, with more coming soon. An early spring preview has at least 35 more in the works.

On the flip side, there have been 11 closures, two of which shuttered after less than a year. That's almost one a week.

So what do restaurant owners have to say?

Restaurants and bars always open and close, said Tyrone Azanedo, owner of Maura's Kitchen in Nyack and co-owner of The Pie Man in Valley Cottage. "It's the nature of the business." He sees fast casual spots among some of the success stories so far.

His business partner Travis Koester, who along with The Pie Man, also owns The Local in Nyack, believes legacy restaurants as doing better because they can absorb inflationary costs, possibly due to the fact that they own their buildings, have been able to work out lease agreements or simply because they already have an established customer base.

Larry Adler who's owned The Station Kitchen and Bar in Congers for nine years, is one of those legacy owners. He, in fact, took part in the survey, which a lot of the report was based on, and is in the optimistic camp.

"2023 turned out to be a good year for us," he said. "My sales were up. But sadly, inflation of wholesale goods wiped out some of the profit.

"With inflation looking like it’s under control for 2024, I’m thinking sales will rise again since hopefully people will have more discretionary income." That said, Adler admitted he tries to be hyper sensitive in inflationary times in terms of pricing. "I’ve been running some specials in a lower price points, for example, creative burgers, sandwiches and quesadillas to try to give people a choice to save some money and still dine out," he said.

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Just like Koester and Azanedo see fast casual and legacy restaurants doing well, Adler is finding eateries that have recently opened with higher price points are also managing. "Lanni’s [in Sparkill], Otto’s [in Piermont] and Verana’s in Norwood [NJ] seem to be bucking the normal inflationary trend of dinners eating at a lower price point," he said.

Chef Giovanni Cucullo, owner of Maria's in New Rochelle, believes "everyone is hungry and excited."

"Guests still want value but they appreciate any and all extra efforts that industry professionals make via food, service and decor," he said.

And while that may be true, others say diners seem cautious. "Concerns about food and wine prices going up, along with labor, make it hard to keep up," said Paul Molakides, owner of Boro6 Wine Bar and B6 Soirée in Hastings-on-Hudson. "Many vendors have added all kinds of surcharges for 'fuel,' 'energy,' and so on," he said. "We can't really raise prices; we just continue to try to offer value and uniqueness."

It's those prices that have many restaurant owners unconvinced about the cheery numbers behind the National Restaurant Association's findings. "My own personal feeling right now is we are in the worse place we have been since the pandemic," said Shane Clifford who owns Jack's Bar & Restaurant in Eastchester, as well as Jill's, on target to open soon in Mamaroneck. "Everything is too expensive at the moment and there can be no winners if both retailer and consumer are feeling the exact same pinch of really having to watch the pennies.

"The National Restaurant Association numbers on the surface may sound encouraging but if you dig deeper it may be more problematic. The sales may well hit over three trillion but I believe that's because everything is getting so expensive not because there are more butts in seats."Also the 200,000 extra jobs created will be created out of desperation more than anything. Come April, California will pay McDonald's workers at entry level no less than $20 a hour. That is quite enticing pay, especially for people in school or those looking for a second income. I'm sure all major chains will have to go the same way with their pay structures to get employees, thus creating more jobs."

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He's noticed, too, that people are watching their money more. "My phone never stops ringing for confirmation and communion bookings for May this time of year but I've noticed I've got a lot less calls for large tables and party rooms and a lot more for catering to people's homes, which I believe is clear evidence they're definitely watching how they spend.

"It's a lot cheaper to cater especially with the cost of alcohol."

Koester agrees with Clifford's assessment of how things really are. "Profitability and the viability of the industry are two different things," he said, adding that overall sales are going up but so, too is everything else.

He and Azanedo are also seeing a decline in drinking among their younger clientele, which affects bar sales.

"With still rising interest and inflation rates, I think 2024 will be a tough year," said Azanedo. "I'm more hopeful for 2025."

National Restaurant Association Report findings

• Positive sales expected: Restaurant operators are cautiously optimistic about the year ahead, with nearly 8 in 10 predicting their sales will increase (33%) or hold steady (45%) from 2023 levels.

• Delivery, carry-out and drive-thru growth continues: 52% of consumers — including 67% of millennials and 63% of Gen Z adults — say ordering takeout from a restaurant is an essential part of their lifestyle.

• Industry employment increased but help still wanted: Forty-five percent of restaurant operators report needing more employees to meet customer demand and a majority (70%) have job openings that are hard to fill.

• Profitability remains challenged: Operators are slightly less optimistic about profitability, with only 27% of operators expecting to be more profitable this year. Average food costs have increased more than 20% and average wages more than 30% from 2019 — both impacting profitability.

• Jobs drive consumer spending: All restaurant sales are local, and consumers are generally upbeat about their community. Fifty-five percent of adults describe their local economy, including the availability of jobs, as excellent or good.

Jeanne Muchnick covers food and dining. Click here for her most recent articles and follow her latest dining adventures on Instagram @jeannemuchnick or via the lohudfood newsletter. 

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Westchester, Rockland NY restaurant owners talk state of industry four years after shut down