Trump kept bookshops afloat – but who has the guts to publish his memoir?

Another impeachment trial, a thicket of potential lawsuits, possibly one more crack at the White House: Donald Trump has plenty to occupy his post-presidential gardening leave. It seems unlikely, therefore, that he is also burning the midnight oil to set his presidency down on paper.

But the issue of a Trump presidential memoir has been thrust into the spotlight by a recent open letter, signed by more than 500 American authors and literary professionals, arguing that US publishers should not do book deals with any members of his administration. The letter cites the 6 January’s violent riots at the US Capitol as “uniquely mitigating criterion for publishing houses when considering book deals”.

In a further sign of the times, on January 25 associate literary agent Colleen Oefelein, who worked for New York-based Jennifer De Chiara Literary Agency, was fired for using Parler and Gab, social media networks linked to the Capitol rioters and far-right groups.

And while the letter does not reference a Trump memoir itself, such a book would surely be the great orange whale of political literature. But if it were to surface, when could we expect it? Who might publish it? And, most significantly, would it sell?

“It would sell in a spectacular manner, particularly if it was candid,” reckons James Daunt, CEO of Waterstones and US bookstore chain, Barnes & Noble. “Trump has been the most astonishingly productive and helpful individual [for booksellers]. Bestseller after bestseller has come out of his presidency – they’ve been filling our bank accounts and keeping bookstores afloat.”

It’s a thought to make the average liberal blanch: that their cute little independent has been kept propped up by the erstwhile Vulgarian-in-chief. After all, this was a man who once flubbed his way through an interview on Crossfire by pretending to have read Tom Wolfe’s Bonfire of the Vanities. And about whom his own National Economic Advisor, Gary Cohn, wrote: “Trump won't read anything – not one-page memos, not the brief policy papers; nothing.”

But from Michael Wolff’s 2018 waspish memoir Fire and Fury to Carol D. Leonnig and Philip Rucker’s energetically muck-flinging 2020 account, A Very Stable Genius, there has been an outpouring of books about his presidency. The turmoil of the last few years – and especially the rackety saga of Trump in the White House – has sparked renewed interest in political publishing, especially memoirs.

The first volume of Barack Obama’s memoirs, A Promised Land, was 2020’s bestselling non-fiction title. And 2019’s was his wife Michelle’s own autobiography, Becoming. Penguin Random House reportedly paid $65m for the titles – by far the largest advance for any presidential memoirs. (Bill Clinton’s 2004 My Life, by contrast, received only $15m, itself a record-breaking sum at the time.)

“You don’t get that if you win the lottery,” says Daunt. “[A Trump] book is not going to be Harry Potter, but it will pay its publishers back handsomely.”

The political memoir has not always been such a sexy prospect. Gordon Brown’s glowering My Life, Our Times, for instance, shifted less than 30,000 copies. Not bad for an under-the-radar fiction debut; less impressive for a man who was Chancellor of the Exchequer for 10 years and Prime Minister for three.

But would Trump even write a memoir? He is certainly known to be fond of his first sally into print, 1987’s The Art of the Deal. So much so that he apparently asked whether he might be sworn in at inauguration on the ghostwritten business guide. Since then, there have been 18 further books credited to him; James Joyce only managed four.

And there is a strong precedent for an ex-presidential memoir, too. Most 20th Century US leaders have felt compelled to deliver weighty tomes testifying to their stint behind the Resolute Desk; and the last four presidents, back to H W Bush, have all published at least one. Even Richard Nixon found a publisher for his 1978 memoir RN, despite a concerted boycott effort. And with his finances reportedly in tatters – The New York Times claims that he is personally liable for hundreds of millions in debts due in the next few years – it would be surprising if Trump resisted the cash and prestige of a major book release.

But perhaps he is – as in so many other areas – a unique proposition. After all, as the outraged letter alludes, in the US there are ‘Son of Sam’ laws which prevent criminals from profiting by writing about their crimes. Donald Trump faces a trail in the Senate for “incitement of insurrection” for his role in the storming of US Congress. Would a mainstream publisher refuse to touch him, therefore?

“It depends if you think he is defined by that one event, or by his four years in office,” says Philip Jones, editor of the Bookseller. “Publishers will tread very carefully over what they’ll buy. They have always been aware of the political environment, what’s changed is they are now much more conscious of the staff reaction, of outcries on social media.”

Last year, JK Rowling’s lockdown children’s book, The Ickabog, was subject to an attempted cancellation attempt by junior staff at her publisher Hachette. They were upset at her outspoken views on trans issues – and safe spaces for biological women. Likewise, employees at Penguin Random House Canada kicked up a stink about publishing psychologist Jordan Peterson’s sequel to his bestselling 12 Rules for Life. In both cases, they were overruled: The Ickabog was released, and Peterson’s follow up is due in March.

“There’s a lot of debate at the moment about the role of publishers and where people draw the line between fostering diversity of speech and signal-boosting toxic views,” explains Olivia Beattie, editorial director at Biteback Publishing, one of the UK’s leading political publishing houses. “I think we probably would take a Trump memoir, if we were offered it, but it would be a decision for the whole company.”

But Beattie says that, despite recent examples, the US publishing scene is actually more permissive than the UK’s. “Here, the libel laws are much stricter,” she notes. “But in the US, you can get away with saying quite a lot more.”

So though the world of publishing will undoubtedly see this sort of jiggery-wokery again, it is unlikely to damage the chances of a Trump memoir.

“I would be very surprised if many publishers had the extraordinary moral fortitude to turn down the money from a book like that,” observes Daunt.

One issue which may stymie its chances, though, is fact-checking. As of January 20, The Washington Post claims to have tallied 30,573 lies told by the president since he came to office. And if Trump’s approach to Twitter is anything to go by, combing through his manuscript for falsehoods or potentially libelous statements would be an arduous and expensive process.

A further hurdle could be getting a literary agent. They are an essential component of the publishing ecosystem; not having one would be a major sticking point, unless he fancied self-publishing, as his son Donald Trump Jr did with his latest title, Liberal Privilege. (But with just 12,000 copies sold through conventional retailers, Trump Senior would probably want to make a bigger splash.)

American literary agent Keith Urbahn argued a Trump memoir would be “the thorniest nonfiction challenge I’ve ever seen”. And United Talent Agency’s Byrd Leavell, who represented Trump’s last book, Crippled America, has distanced himself from his involvement with the president.

“I hate that I did that [represent Trump],” he said. “I mean I did it, I have to own it, but it’s tricky. For me, it’s like just a little fraught because the world’s shifted and now you look back on that guy and it’s like ‘you were just a f––king arsehole.’”

But provided those challenges could be overcome, Daunt reckons a Trump memoir stands a good chance of finding a widespread audience. “As long as it’s lawful and published by a mainstream publisher, then we’d stock it,” he says. “If people want to buy books, then we supply them without passing judgement.”

He points out that bookselling is also notably localised: “We don’t sell the same books in Union Square, Manhattan as we do in Birmingham, Alabama. And while in the UK, the liberal view of Trump has tended to do well; in the US there have been lots of pro-Trump titles, like Tucker Carlson’s Ship of Fools, which have done immensely well.”

Jones at the Bookseller agrees. The heartland states from where Trump largely draws his support are well-served with bookshops – and would make for an eager readership. “Walmart is a huge player in the paperback market,” he argues. “If Trump did write a book, I would imagine it would find its audience.”

As for when it might appear, he reckons its “years, not months”. After all, “Obama’s book took four years”.

Beattie suggests that getting a book from manuscript to the public typically takes about 18 months in the US. So a 2024 release date, perhaps, assuming a two year composition process. Perfectly timed for another presidential run.

Daunt is more circumspect: “He’s an unusual man who has broken every other convention, so who knows?”

So when retailers open after their long lockdown hibernation, brace yourself. The Art of the Deal: the White House Years could be coming soon to a bookshop near you.