US Ports See First Inbound Cargo Increase in 16 Months
Inbound cargo volume into the U.S. reached its likely 2023 peak in October, when ports tallied a higher-than-expected 2.05 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) during the month, a 2.5 percent jump from the year prior.
This marks the first year-over-year inbound volume increase since June 2022, according to data covered by the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.
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October well exceeded the forecast set last month, where the Global Port Tracker projections called for 1.92 million TEU, down 4.2 percent year over year.
“We originally thought peak season would come in August but imports kept growing in September and again in October,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy, NRF, in a statement. “Whether it was merchandise for retailers or cargo for other businesses, that’s a good sign for the economy and for the holiday shopping season. NRF expects record-setting holiday sales this year and retailers are well-stocked to meet consumer demand.”
The annual increase mirrors data from the Office of Textiles and Apparel of the U.S. Department of Commerce (OTEXA), which indicated earlier this month that apparel and textile imports to the U.S. increased by 2.8 percent to 8 billion square meters equivalent (SME) in October.
By topping September’s 2.03 million TEU, a 1.3 percent month-over-month jump, October should generate the most TEU into U.S. ports. The Global Port Tracker indicated that while October was the traditional peak for imported goods, this shifted to August or sooner for seven of the past 10 years.
According to the report, the shift occurred after a series of port labor disputes prompted retailers to bring merchandise into the country early to avoid potential disruptions near the holidays.
Ports have not yet reported official November numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.96 million TEU, which would be up 10.5 percent year over year. December is forecast at 1.93 million TEU, up 11.5 percent year over year.
Those numbers would bring total 2023 containers imported to 22.4 million TEU, down 12.4 percent from last year. Imports during 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 percent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
Year-over-year volume growth each month is expected to continue in 2024, with January forecast at 1.93 million TEU, up 6.6 percent year over year. February—historically the slowest month because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia—is anticipated to bring in 1.77 million TEU, up 14.5 percent year over year. March is forecast at 1.75 million TEU, up 7.7 percent year over year, and April at 1.8 million TEU, up 1 percent.
October’s outperformance comes as the NRF and CNBC said early Monday that core retail sales, excluding restaurants, automobiles and gas, increased 4.2 percent year over year in November—a strong number given that NRF expects total core holiday sales to grow 3 percent to 4 percent over 2023.
“The U.S. economy appears to be on a sustainable growth path as consumer demand remains buoyant,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, who referred to “solid” Black Friday weekend sales, strong corporate profits and continued growth of gross domestic product. “It would be natural to assume that any thought of a recession is behind us, but a significant number of economists and politicians remain skeptical. As always, time will tell.”
While the total numbers in October signal a better TEU import total than projected, much of it was buoyed by the major West Coast ports, which have seen more product shift back in their direction with concerns of congestion at the Panama Canal and ahead of a possible strike at the East Coast ports.
At the Port of Los Angeles, October 2023 loaded imports landed at 372,455 TEUs, an increase of 11 percent compared to the previous year. Imports at the Port of Long Beach increased 24 percent to 363,300 TEUs.
Major ports elsewhere in the U.S. didn’t follow that trend. At the Port of New York and New Jersey, imported loads totaled 381,756 TEUs, down 0.2 percent from October 2022. In Port Houston, loaded import volumes fell 4 percent to 174,929 TEUs, while they plummeted 16 percent to 220,298 TEUs in the Port of Savannah.