Why aren’t people flocking to see West Side Story?
In the middle of last week, Hollywood trade paper Deadline was forecasting Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story to open in the $22–31 million (￡17–23 million) range, with $12–17m coming from North America, and $10–14m from the first wave of international territories, including most of the key European markets.
Those numbers didn’t seem bullish for a $100m-budget adaptation of a famous musical property, directed by the world’s most famous filmmaker, previously made into a film that won 10 Oscars, and now marketed by the giant studio Disney.
But they turned out to be optimistic. West Side Story has opened with a rather flat $15.1m (￡11.4m) – with $10.6m in North America and a troubling $4.5m from 37 overseas territories including UK and Ireland, France, Germany, Russia, Brazil and Mexico.
Even In The Heights, based on the pre-Hamilton Lin-Manuel Miranda stage show, began with $11.5m when it opened in North America in June, and that was considered a disappointment at the time. And In The Heights was available in cinemas and simultaneously on HBO Max, whereas West Side Story is exclusively in cinemas and should have done better.
Although the West Side Story numbers are below expectations, it’s by no means all over for the film as cinemas are likely to keep it on screens at least into the Christmas holiday period. Cinema operators understand that the older-skewing audience for this title is typically busy in mid-December, with social plans, shopping and preparations for Christmas. This audience will likely emerge in the days leading up to Christmas and beyond for a film that has been well-reviewed, enjoys high audience scores, and should benefit from Oscar and Bafta nominations in the upcoming awards season.
Omicron impact
Another worry is the impact of the omicron Covid variant. Mask-wearing is now mandatory in UK cinemas, unless the person is exempt – that requirement may encourage portions of the audience simply to wait so they can watch films such as West Side Story at home. Others may be more concerned about the risks of infection, with the same outcome.
The total UK and Ireland box office fell to ￡6.5m at the weekend – the lowest since September, and one of the lower weekend totals since cinemas reopened in May. Box office is less than half of what it was for the equivalent pre-Covid weekends in 2019 (when Jumanji: The Next Level and Frozen 2 led the market) and 2018 (led by Aquaman and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse).
The picture will be clearer when Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home arrives in cinemas this week. Advance box-office was reported to be initially strong, and nerves will calm if this superhero franchise title delivers blockbuster numbers. The Matrix: Resurrections follows a week later – but if that film ends up appealing to the same people that saw the original The Matrix in cinemas in 1999, Warner Bros could face a West Side Story-style headache of reluctant, or at least dilatory, audience members aged 40-plus.
The Ansel factor
Opinions differ regarding the impact of the scandal that erupted after West Side Story’s leading actor, Ansel Elgort, was accused of sexual assault in 2020. Elgort denies the accusation, and has not been charged with any crime, but the social media fallout presumably factored into Disney’s decision to delay – by a whole year – the release of West Side Story from its original December 2020 date. The Covid pandemic was the ostensible reason for the delay.
Elgort attended West Side Story’s New York premiere and last week appeared on The Late Show with James Corden, but overall has been rather sidelined in the press and promotion. It’s hard to assess the impact, but it’s helpful to Disney that the film is essentially not cast-driven. Many will be unaware who exactly is the cast, and Rachel Zegler, who plays Maria opposite Elgort’s Tony, is a newcomer. The strongest marketable elements for West Side Story were always going to be the property itself and Spielberg.
The weak West Side Story numbers in countries such as Germany, Russia and the Netherlands may be causing a headache for Disney, but the UK and Ireland is a relative bright spot, thanks to a chart-topping ￡1.3m opening. Still, that debut number is not what many would have been anticipating, even a month ago.
Exactly two years ago, Digital Cinema Media (DCM), which sells advertising such as trailers into cinemas, issued its predictions for the top 10 films at the UK and Ireland box office in 2020 – this was before the Covid pandemic, when titles such as No Time to Die, Fast & Furious 9 and of course West Side Story were all set for release that year.
DCM had West Side Story in equal-seventh place for the year, level with Peter Rabbit 2 on ￡32m. Peter Rabbit 2 opened in May this year, and reached only ￡20.3m thanks to the impact of the Covid pandemic. Sony may have been a tad disappointed with that outcome, but if West Side Story goes on and matches it with ￡20m at UK and Ireland cinemas, Disney will be delighted, relieved… and not a little surprised.
Top 10 films, December 10–12
West Side Story, ￡1.30m from 678 sites (new)
Clifford the Big Red Dog, ￡1.29m from 567 sites (new)
House of Gucci, ￡780,000 from 677 sites. Total: ￡7.34m (3 weeks)
Encanto, ￡635,000 from 599 sites. Total: ￡4.22m (3 weeks)
Ghostbusters: Afterlife, ￡586,000 from 588 sites. Total: ￡10.1m (4 weeks)
Eternals, ￡153,000 from 345 sites. Total: ￡14.8m (6 weeks)
Home Alone, ￡123,000 from 313 sites. Total: ￡966,000 (2018 re-release)
No Time to Die, ￡119,000 from 359 sites. Total: ￡96.3m (11 weeks)
Elf, ￡118,000 from 335 sites. Total: ￡207,000 (2021 re-release)
A Boy Called Christmas, ￡112,000 from 207 sites. Total: ￡454,000 (3 weeks)
All figures relate to cinemas in the UK and Ireland unless otherwise specified. Thanks to Comscore