Who Will Win at Cloudbreak? SURFER Staff Makes Picks for Fiji Pro

It’s been seven years since the Championship Tour has stopped in Fiji. Seven long years without the reeling lefthand reefbreaks of Restaurants, and its big brother, Cloudbreak. But this year, as a final stop on the regular season, the Dream Tour is returning to the heart-shaped island of Tavarua as their last stop before the Final Five showdown at Lower, Trestles.

As with any final stop before the Finals, this one has a lot of implications. Mainly, it’s the last opportunity for surfers to make it into the coveted Final Five and compete for a world title at Trestles come September. But also, it will be Kelly Slater’s final official appearance on the CT as a semi-fulltime competitor. (Stay tuned for celebrations and emotional career retrospectives on that one.) What’s more? It’s f*cking Cloudbreak, one of the world’s best waves, paradise on earth, where perfect 10s are practically guaranteed, where troubles melt like lemon drops.

So, we surveyed the SURFER staff to hear their picks – favorites, underdog threats, potential Final Five shakeups and more. Keep scrolling to peer into the crystal ball.

Related: Kelly Slater Graces Cover of SURFER Magazine's New Print Issue

Who Will Win?

Jake Howard:

Jack Robinson takes his silver medal momentum and locks into some long Cloudbreak barrels to take the win in Fiji. Formed out and focused, if the swell cooperates he’s a clear favorite. Jack versus Kelly Slater in the final would be a dream matchup, and given Kelly’s record in Fiji, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.

On the women’s side, my sneaky pick is Bettylou Sakura Johnson. With that comfort in South Pacific power and her ability in hollow, scary waves, Fiji’s a great way to wrap up her season. Currently sitting ninth on the WSL leaderboard, a win here could slingshot her into the Final 5 and give her a shot at the world title at Lowers in September.

August Howell:

Joel Parkinson once said Gabriel Medina is the best to ever do it at Cloudbreak. A tall claim to be sure, but the fact that we can even debate that is a testament to the Brazilian’s remarkable skill and poise. He hasn’t always done well in Fiji in six events, but he has won two CTs there (2014 and 2016), and got runner up to Kelly Slater in his rookie year in 2012. He needs a big result to overtake at least three surfers (Jordy Smith, Yago Dora and Ethan Ewing are all above him) to get into the WSL Finals.

Johanne Defay is a former event winner (2016) and won the G-Land comp in 2022, which is a fair equivalent to Cloudbreak. It was small for the fabled Indonesian freight train, and the forecast doesn’t look huge for the waiting period in Fiji. On the Olympic finals day, Defay managed a bronze medal by going to turns at sub-par Teahupo’o. She’s more than capable of doing the same at Cloudbreak.

Zander Morton:

For the men, it's gotta be Gabe Medina. Nobody in the world is better with their back against the wall. Currently sitting in 8th, Medina needs a big finish to secure his spot in the WSL Finals. Whether Cloudbreak is 8-foot and flexing or 3-foot and rippable, Medina will win in Fiji and head into Lowers as the most dangerous surfer in the draw. Mark these words.

On the women's side I have to choose Caroline Marks. Riding high from her Olympic Gold, and needing a big result to overtake Caity Simmers heading into the Final 5 at Trestles, Marks' momentum carries her to her second CT win of 2024 at the perfect time.

Jonathan Perino:

I gotta say John John Florence. He’s on fire this year, Cloudbreak suits him, and he’s certainly not stoked on what happened in Tahiti. I think he’s looking to drop a hammer before Lowers. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t quietly hootin’ for Kelly. If he ever had a chance to pull off one more big win on the CT, this would be it. If the waves are pumping A+ Cloudbreak, then I think the GOAT has a good shot at rattling the bracket.

Caity Simmers. I’m backing up both current #1’s right now. Caity is such a rock star, that I think the “No pressure, I already made the Final 5” mantra will work in her favor at this venue. When she surfs loose she really shines, and she’s already proven her backhand barrel prowess at the beginning of the season. She certainly wants to keep the #1 spot, so I think we’re gonna see an elevated competitive side of the Oceanside local that we may not have seen yet—prepare for fireworks.

Related: Gabriel Medina Surfed the Best Wave in Olympic History (So Far)

Safe Bets

JH:

Gabriel Medina’s a no-brainer to contender here. He’ll paddle his rivals up to the top of the reef, find a bomb and it’ll be game over. Sitting number eight on the leaderboard, he’s going to want to put in a performance and make the WSL Finals. And the bronze medal at Teahupo’o may have left him hungry.

Molly Picklum feels like a safe bet here. One of the best backside tube riders on the women’s tour, she hasn’t made it out of the quarterfinals since she won at Sunset Beach at the start of the year. She’s due for a big result, and given how much fun Aussies always seem to have on Namotu, she could easily smile her way to the top of the podium.

AH:

John John Florence is one of only two men in the current top five who surfed in Fiji as a CT event in 2017 (Italo Ferreira is the other). Surprisingly, John has never won at Cloudbreak (his best result was equal 3rd in 2013). But based on tube-reading wizardry surely he must be considered a favorite going in. Watch his “Again” edit from 2014 to recall his affinity for pumping reef passes.

Arguably nobody on tour (except Kelly) has spent more time at Cloudbreak than Brisa Hennessy. She spent nine months in Fiji during the pandemic in 2020, a perfect scenario to get familiar with backhand barrels. She was based on Namotou, where her parents manage and run a resort. She has not competed at Cloudbreak before, but based on her standout showings at Teahupo’o in recent years, I expect her somewhat local knowledge to pay off.

ZM:

On the men's side, it's John Florence. He's gotta be pissed after losing to Jack Robinson in the Olympics. While he's already far and away the world number 1 and will be wearing the yellow jersey during the WSL Finals, he'll still be hungry to win in Fiji, making him a safe bet for at least the semifinals.

For the women, I'll say Brisa Hennessy. She's been a model of consistency all year, is a technically gifted tube rider, and has one of the meanest backside hacks on tour. It's hard to imagine her not finishing her season strong in Fiji.

JP:

Caroline Marks. Just coming off the Olympic Gold in Tahiti, Caroline is on a heater right now. And heading back into a warm-water, barreling lefthander it’d be hard to bet against this goofyfooted powerhouse. She wants that #1 spot going into Lowers—I’d bet the farm on that one.

Medina is gonna be swingin’ for the fences in Fiji—with a proven batting average at Cloudbreak to back it up. And much like John, I think he’s got some fire brewin’ after his heat with Jack in Tahiti. He’s currently just outside the Final 5 cut, so a big result at Cloudbreak is his only chance at Lowers, and very few people on Tour can handle pressure like this better than Medina. With someone like Gabe, you certainly don’t wanna poke the dragon right before a venue like this.

Related: Sierra Kerr and Erin Brooks to Make CT Debut as Wildcards in Fiji Pro

Underdog Threats

JH:

Going with the local San Clemente kid here, Cole Houshmand, on his frontside at Cloudbreak which can match power with power. He may not have the competitive experience out there or know the reef as well as some of the veterans, but he’s a good student and I like his size and go-big approach in Fiji.

And if I’m going to roll with Cole, I may as well roll with Sawyer Lindblad. She’s been getting better all year long and her results show it. A second-place in Rio was a big breakthrough for her. She’s had some time off, she’s taken a trip to Tavarua to practice. She’ll be well rested, armed with good boards from Matt Biolos and ready to go when the event starts.

AH:

Ramzi Boukhiam. All anecdotal evidence here for the Moroccan. His semifinal showing at pumping Teahupo’o, his first CT comp there, was the breakout performance of the event. Considering how disappointed he was not medaling in the Olympics this month, I expect him to be locked into rifling lefts, mentally and physically.

For the women, hard to look past wildcard Erin Brooks. She’s currently second on the Challenger Series and appears poised to join the CT full time in 2025. But at just 17 years old, it’s her tube-riding in waves of consequence that scream loud and clear: She’s bloody good in the juice. Especially on her forehand, note her expertise at Padang Padang in 2022 and bombing Kandui.

ZM:

Watch out for Yago Dora. Sitting in 6th place only a few hundred points behind Ethan Ewing in 5th, Italo Ferreira in 4th and Jack Robinson in 3rd, Dora smells blood. This is going to be a wild finish. Of the aforementioned four, the two surfers that finish highest in Fiji will likely take the 4th and 5th spots. Every single one of them is wildly talented in the tube. There could be a crazy shakeup in the rankings at Cloudbreak.

Similarly, for the women, Tatiana Weston-Webb is currently on the outside of the Top 5 looking in, but it's a super tight race and we all know what Tati can do in big, scary left tubes. You just know Weston-Webb is praying for a big purple blob to pop up on the charts.

JP:

Seth Moniz. We’ve all seen what he’s capable of in barreling lefts and he’s got a razor-sharp fundamental approach on the open face. So, no matter what side of Cloudbreak we see, Seth has the game to upset just about anyone in the draw. When the ocean gives him opportunity, he tends to seize it. Plus, he knows that a good showing in Fiji could solidify requalification.

Sierra Kerr. We all love a good Wildcard upset, don’t we? And this year in Fiji, I think the young Californian has the foundational wherewithal to send some seasoned heavy-hitters home. If the waves come her way, I think Sierra has the skills and the guts to impress the hell out of the surf world in Fiji this year.

Related: Caroline Marks on the (Literal) Weight of an Olympic Surfing Gold Medal

Final Five Shakeups

JH:

My picks for the Men’s Final Five is that it ends with John John Florence at the top of the ratings. Jack Robinson moves up a spot to number two. Griffin Colapinto comes in rated third. Yago Dora and Gabriel Medina wrangle for the final two spots in the Finals. It’d be epic to see Crosby Colapinto slide in there at number five, but he’d have to run the table and it’s probably pretty unlikely.

The dream lineup for the Women’s Final Five would be Caity Simmers with the number one seed. Olympic gold medalist Caroline Marks holds onto her number two seed. Molly Picklum moves up to number three, Brisa Hennessy lands in fourth and Sawyer Lindblad cracks the Final Five. That would be three young women from San Clemente and Oceanside in what’s presumably the last WSL Finals at Lowers in a long time.

AH:

This is a tight spot for Ethan Ewing, who has two seriously talented goofyfoots looking to jump him in the rankings. For the sake of rail-game purists and entertainment in September, I hope Ethan holds his rail and his spot on the rankings. But if not, Medina will take his spot. The top three, John, Jack Robinson and Griffin Colapinto should be safe.

On the women’s side, I think the top four out of five surfers will be heading to Lowers Trestles. Gabriela Bryan (No. 5) has had a good year, but she’s staring at Johanne Defay and Tatiana Weston-Webb right below her. Both Johanne and Tatiana have proven their worth in lefthand tubes, and one of them should climb the rankings to take the last spot.

ZM:

As I already mentioned, it's nearly a guarantee that we'll see a big ratings shakeup in Fiji. If I had to make one bold prediction for the men, it's that Ethan Ewing will be replaced in the Top 5 this year by either Medina or Dora. And for the women, Weston-Webb will slide in with a win and knock Gabriela Bryan out. There could of course be even more swaps, but those are the two I feel confident claiming.

JP:

For the women, I think no matter what happens across the board, Caity and Caroline remain in #1 and #2. But Johanne Defay has a sterling resume in Fiji, so I think she’ll likely muscle her way into Lowers after this event. And same for Tatianna. For the men, I think John and Griff hold onto #1 and #2 (Griff is certainly another solid contender for a big result in Fiji). I do think Gabriel will find his opportunity for another World Title with his result at Cloudbreak, but I also think Yago has a great chance to squeak in there with a good showing. But I’d love to see Crosby really bring the heat in Fiji and bump his way into Lowers—two brothers at their home spot would be a really special thing to witness.

Related: Gallery: Intimate Moments from Surfing’s Historic Paris 2024 Olympics Finale