Who Will Win Gold at Teahupo'o? The SURFER Staff Makes Their Picks.

One of the best (and arguably worst) facets of surfing, both for the pros and the weekend warriors, is the unpredictability factor. In fact, it’s sort of a double-edged sword: on one hand, unlike other sports with a fixed playing field, the ocean can be a fickle, impulsive mistress; on the other, that randomness makes for upsets and excitement.

When it comes to the Olympics, this sets surfing apart from ninety percent of the other sports on the docket. The swimming pool, for example, that doesn’t change. The gymnastics mat, a stagnant, equal arena for all competitors. Even skateboarding, another new sport on the Olympic stage, has the same obstacles, and thus, the same opportunity for all. But with surfing, as with an art house film, the location is a main character. And an unstable, erratic one at that.

Related: Olympic Surfing 101: Everything to Know Before Paris 2024

Nonetheless, based on previous performances, certain competitors have the track record to be presumed as safe bets to do well in Tahiti during the Paris 2024 Olympics. And so, we picked the brains of the SURFER staff to see who’s looking good, who might swoop in from the shadows to steal the glory, and who’s most likely to have a face-to-face meeting with Chopes’ reef.

(Note: These predictions are based on the assumption that Teahupo’o will be clean, 8-10 foot during the event. We’re talking proper, scary Chopes. Fingers crossed for that.)

Gold Medal Favorites

Dashel Pierson: On the men’s side, it seems like this is John John Florence’s year. When he’s focused, he’s sort of like Slater – impossible to beat. And this year, he has that. Could be because he just became a dad, and this might be his final push in professional, competitive surfing before hanging it up. But don’t count out Gabe Medina. He, like John, is near unbeatable when he’s focused. Gabe missed out on the podium during the Olympics in Tokyo, so guaranteed he’ll be looking to take home some hardware this time.

As for the women, it’s a similar situation with Carissa Moore. She already stepped away from full-time on the CT, and she’ll be looking to cap off her competitive career with a second gold. Compared to a few of the younger competitors – Caity and Molly – Carissa hasn’t had been riding the women’s progression train seen in heavier surf this season. But she does have the experience, the poise, and perhaps the drive to do something big on surfing’s biggest stage ever.

Ashtyn Douglas-Rosa: Call me crazy, but I think the gold-medal winner is going to be a total toss-up on the men’s side. There are so many strong contenders that the conditions and the match-ups will play huge roles in determining who tops the podium and waves their country’s flag under the song of their national anthem.. But if I had to choose a favorite, I’d put my money on local boy Kauli Vaast. Sure, he doesn’t exactly have the competitive chops of the CT Olympic qualifiers, but he’s likely ridden more waves out there than anyone else in the draw and will have a homegrown crowd of supporters behind him.

Of all the female Olympic qualifiers, no one has spent more time under the hood of Teahupo’o drainers than local Tahitian tube hound Vahine Fierro. At just 24-years-old, the goofy-footed “Queen of Teahupo’o” recently dominated the 2024 Shiseido Tahiti Pro, securing her first-ever CT win (and as a wildcard, mind you) in all-time conditions. But she’ll no doubt have her work cut out for her. With barrel fiends like Molly Picklum and Tatiana Weston-Webb (who nearly took out Fierro during the Tahiti Pro with a draw-dropping perfect 10) also in the mix, she’ll have to lean heavily on her local knowledge to take that bite into a gold medal.

Related: Olympic Qualifier Vahine Fierro Talks Going for Gold on Her Home Turf

August Howell: What can be said about Gabriel Medina and Teahupo’o that hasn’t been said before? Six CT finals and two wins. Stats aside, there are times when he looks so in sync with the South Pacific orbs that his heats seem preordained. While Gabriel’s hunger for embarrassing his opponents is no secret, I’d wager these Games smell like unfinished business to him. He was barely knocked off the podium in Japan in 2021 by Owen Wright, then watched his countryman Italo Ferreira claim the gold medal. Remarkably, Gabriel nearly didn’t make the Brazilian team for this upcoming Olympics, after Filipe Toledo and Joao Chianca finished ahead of him in the 2023 CT rankings. But thanks to Brazil winning the 2024 ISA World Games, which Gabriel dominated and won, Brazil was given a third slot. After a few down years on the CT, expect Gabriel to prove he’s the top dog once again.

One of three Americans in the women’s draw, Caroline Marks arguably has the most momentum. She won the Teahupo’o CT event in 2023, the same year she won the world title. She’s surfed in 51 CT events, and this is her second Olympic appearance, so I wouldn’t expect nerves on the big stage. Caroline will be looking for redemption after missing a medal by one spot in Japan in 2021, and this venue is well suited to her skillset. Her forehand tube riding is as good as any woman in the world, and if it’s small she can rip the top off. With Shane Dorian in the coach’s corner, expect her to be fully prepared.

Jake Howard: For the gold, I’m saying John John Florence and Vahine Fierro…with a caveat that Carissa Moore could also win and go back-to-back gold medals. But John and Vahine looked so good during the WSL contest at Teahupo’o, they were both so comfortable and in-tune with the wave, it’s easy to see them keeping that momentum going.

For John, it’s interesting to think about what a gold medal would mean. He’s a new dad, he’s fronting the Championship Tour ratings with potential to win a world title, and then you add Olympic gold on top of that, it’d be quite a year. Winning a world title and gold medal the same year your son was born, that’s pretty special.

And it feels like all would be right in the world if Vahine wins the gold. Obviously, she’s lights out at Teahupo’o, but to have a local Tahitian win Olympic gold there, it’s an incredible story. And after all the scandal about the judging tower and development at the End of the Road, the Tahitian people more than deserve a champion of their own.

Zander Morton: I probably sound like a broken record, but if Teahupo’o is 8-foot (or anywhere close to it) during the Olympics, you can pencil John Florence in for Gold. Sure, Gabriel Medina is deadly out there. So is Jack Robinson. But the way I see it, those three finish Gold, Silver and Bronze, respectively. Florence is in a flow state right now, and that’s when his magic happens.

On the women’s side, I’ve got Vahine Fierro winning Gold, all day. She’s simply the best and most experienced women in the world at Teahupo’o, and she’ll back up her WSL victory last month with an even bigger win at the Olympics in August.

Safe Bets

Dashel Pierson: Watch out for Tatiana Weston-Webb, Johanne Defay, and Caroline Marks. These three, like Carissa, have the experience. This season alone, on the CT, they’ve been standout performers. Caroline and Johanne each have a win, so they’re clearly in form. As for Tati, she’s got something else: drive. She’s hungry. And not to mention her perfect 10 during the Tahiti Pro. If it’s big, she will charge.

Jack Robinson, Griffin Colapinto, Ethan Ewing, Kanoa Igarashi. Just like the above, these four are well-versed in elite level competition. They’re seasoned, and they’ve got the chops when it comes to big, barreling lefthand tubes. Although nobody has a ton of experience in the Olympics – since this is only surfing’s second appearance – experience, in general, will be crucial for a good showing.

Ashtyn Douglas-Rosa: If I wasn’t pulling for Vahine for the gold-medal win, my next pick would’ve been Tati. She was the only woman to nab a perfect-10 at the Tahiti Pro and she’ll be ready to show the world why she’s one of the best forehand tube-riders in the world. I’d also say current World Champ Caroline Marks is a safe bet as well. On the men’s side, you can’t go wrong with placing a few dollars on John John Florence, for more-than-obvious reasons, Gabriel Medina and Jack Robinson.

August Howell: A lot of the CT surfers know how to handle big Teahupo’o. Just look at the last contest: Both the men and women were getting a barrel fest for the ages. Guys like John, Jack Robinson and even Morocco’s Ramzi Boukhiam should make some noise. For the women, Vahine is definitely a favorite in all conditions. She won the CT contest in pumping conditions and can draw on local knowledge no matter what the waves serve up.

Related: Olympic Surfing Preview: Tahiti Pro Foreshadows Paris 2024 Games at Teahupo’o

Jake Howard: Hard not to consider Carissa Moore and Jack Robinson here. Carissa’s been putting the time in and seems really focused on the Olympics, while Jack’s always focused. He’s got the mindset of a Shaolin fighting monk, watch out. It would come as no surprise to see both of these exemplary humans atop the podium when it’s all said and done.

Zander Morton: The big three: John Florence, Gabriel Medina and Jack Robinson. And just below them I’d put Joao Chianca, Ramzi Boukhiam, and Kauli Vaast. If one of those six don’t win…I’ll be shocked.

In the women’s draw, it’s gotta be Vahine Fierro and Tatiana Weston-Webb. Brisa Hennessy and Molly Picklum are also proven Chopes chargers and will send it on big, scary sets.

Underdog Threats

Dashel Pierson: It feels weird to call the local Tahitians “underdogs.” But, considering Vahine Fierro and Kauli Vaast don’t have the competitive experience some of the other competitors do, that may be a factor. However, they obviously know the wave better than anyone else in the field. And if it’s big and pumping, that familiarity could trump time spent in the jersey.

Ashtyn Douglas-Rosa: Brisa Hennessy always seems to perform well on her backhand when the waves are heaving, hollow and draining. And if the surf gods answer all our wishes, the waves at the Olympics will be heaving, hollow and draining – and Brisa will be more than ready to contend for a medal. She’s spent plenty of time at Cloudbreak and placed runner-up to Tahitian queen Vahine Fierro at the recent Tahiti Pro. With most eyes likely to be on Vahine, Carissa or Tatiana to top the podium, Brisa could likely slide her way past event favorites to claim the win.

On the men’s side, I’m secretly pulling for Morocco’s Ramzi Boukhiam. Alongside many at the recent Tahiti Pro, Boukhiam put on a forehand tube-riding clinic and took down big names (and event favorites) like Kelly Slater before eventually bowing out of the event to Italo Ferriera, who won the whole damn thing. There isn’t any pressure on him in the way Florence and Medina might feel the pressure, so he'll be free to go for broke (and gold).

Related: Paris 2024 Underdogs: An Analysis of Europe’s Olympic Qualifiers

August Howell: There are very few competitors in this draw who come close to the heavy water chops of Alan Cleland Jr. Raised at the board-munching beachbreaks of Pascuales, Mexico, the 22-year-old has an affinity for hunting down roaming peaks and getting blasted out massive tubes on a regular basis. He does not have a ton of experience in Tahiti compared to some of the bigger names, and that’s reflected in the odds (a heavy underdog at +10,000). But if it’s proper second-reef Teahupo’o, he will be a clear standout and a great dark horse story.

On the women’s front, Brisa Hennessy may not be a household name, but the 24-year-old Costa Rican has quietly put together a remarkably consistent campaign on the 2024 Championship Tour. And she has a lot of experience in heavy barrels, having spent nine months in Fiji honing her backhand at the height of the pandemic. In recent years she’s done well in recent CT contests in Tahiti, making the final in two out of the last three events. She knows the Olympic venue and her technique is sound. Though she may not be on the marquee yet, don’t be surprised if she ends up on the podium.

Jake Howard: Seems weird to think of Molly Picklum as an underdog at Teahupo’o, but she’s still got a bit of work to do to prove herself out there. After what we saw on her backhand at Pipe last winter, there’s no doubt she can attack left barrels with reckless abandon.

And like Vahine, I’d love to see Kauli Vaast go the distance. Just the idea of a local winning Olympic gold at their spot, it would be an amazing thing for surfing and Tahiti. Kauli doesn’t have the competitive resume as others in the draw, but he’s got more Teahupo’o experience than just about anyone. And if it’s big, he becomes a favorite really quickly.

Zander Morton: Kanoa Igarashi and Leo Fioravanti. These two best friends don’t get the props they deserve in heavy surf. But make no mistake: They both charge, they’re technically adept in heavy, barreling lefts, and they’ll both enter the Olympics with a chip on their shoulders and all the motivation in the world to prove they deserve to be in the same conversation as surfers like John Florence and Jack Robinson. Similarly, I think Caitlin Simmers is hungry to show she’s as deadly in a big left tube as some of her peers.

Countries That Will Contend

Dashel Pierson: Australia and the USA are obviously the most stacked teams, when looking at the men and women combined. The USA may have the edge, however, with a holy trinity of standout female competitors in Carissa, Caroline, and Caity.

Ashtyn Douglas-Rosa: Overall, Brazil seems to have a consistent shot. With Gabby and Jaoa Chianca on the men’s side and 10-point-ride-slayer Tatiana Weston-Webb vying for women’s gold, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of green, yellow and blue on the podium.

August Howell: Hard to go past the French. They have two locals (Kauli and Vahine) who know the reef so well. Joan Duru once competed on the CT and knows his way around barrels via thumbing Hossegor. And Johanne Defay is no slouch in left tubes either, having won an event at G-Land.

Related: Shane Dorian Will Coach Team USA at the 2024 Paris Olympics

Jake Howard: I’m going to wave the red, white and blue here. America’s having a brilliant year on the Championship Tour and there’s no reason to see that slowing down. With John and Griffin Colapinto anchoring the men, along with Carissa and Caroline Marks, that’s a ton of talent and experience to contend with. Thanks to the Tahitian contingent, France is also in play and could be really interesting to watch.

Zander Morton: All four of the USA's surfers could win Gold. Brazil and France have the next best chance.

Surfers We’re Scared For

Dashel Pierson: The non-surfing masses, watching and trying to understand everything. Also, Siqi Yang, the 14-year-old from China. But who knows! She could secretly rip in heavy lefthand tubes.

Ashtyn Douglas-Rosa: The ones in the channel reporting on the event (like our on-the-ground Olympics correspondent Dashel Pierson), having to witness impossibly perfectly lefthanders they won’t be able to access until after the Games are done.

August Howell: Filipe Toledo. There will be many eyes on the reigning World Champion, who took the 2024 CT season off to reset and prioritize his mental health. Now, he returns to competition for the first time since Pipeline (in January) to a venue he has historically underperformed at.

Related: 14-Year-Old Becomes China's First Olympic Surfer, Has Priceless Reaction (Watch)

Jake Howard: Teahupo’o is incredibly intimidating and it takes a lot of time just being in the water and watching to really start to feel comfortable out there. The surfers in the draw that haven’t spent much time out there are going to have their work cut out for them. It’s easy to point to 14-year-old Siqi Yang from China as a prime example, but as Dashel noted, the world doesn’t know much about what she’s been up to. Would that be a story if she came out and stunned the world?!

Zander Morton: Just about every surfer in the men’s draw has experience at Teahupo’o and/or has put in their time at a similar heavy, barreling left. They’ll all be up to the task. On the women’s side, the reality is that many of the Olympic surfers haven’t had the same opportunity to practice at Chopes. Aside from the CT surfers and Vahine Fierro, they’re nearly all untested, and are being thrown straight into the deep end, literally. Still: this is a massive opportunity for surfers like Siqi Yang, Anat Lelior, and Camilla Kemp (to name a few) to prove themselves in front of the world. But are we scared for them? Definitely. There’s nowhere to hide at Chopes.

Olympic surfing in the Paris 2024 Games will take place at Teahupo'o, Tahiti. The event will run for four days between July 27th and August 4th; stay tuned for coverage.