The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be historic. Here's how Pensacolians can prepare
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is just over a week away, and initial forecasts look dire as experts say it could be one of the busiest years on record.
The combination of a rising La Ni?a and water temperatures in the runway between Africa and the Gulf of Mexico that are 3.6 to 7 degrees warmer than normal has meteorologists predicting more than double the number of average named storms.
Some have even labeled 2024 the “hurricane season from hell.”
Florida residents shouldn’t become complacent after last year’s relatively tame hurricane season. So, here’s what you need to know to be prepared for an active hurricane season.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season begins and ends on the same dates each year: June 1 and Nov. 30. During this time, tropical and subtropical cyclones have a greater chance of forming in the North Atlantic Ocean. Other regions of the world have different hurricane seasons.
When does hurricane season peak?
Historically, hurricane season peaks around the beginning of September, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management.
Atlantic hurricane season 2024 forecast
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, which include seven hurricanes. Of the seven hurricanes, three are major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
As early predictions for this season started rolling in as far back as December, it became clear that there was little disagreement between them and higher confidence in the forecasts than in 2023.
WeatherBELL Analytics, which issued a forecast in December for up to 30 named storms and a “hurricane season from hell,” has stuck with that prediction. Colorado State University is predicting 23 named storms, the University of Pennsylvania is forecasting between 27 and 39 named storms, with a best estimate of 33. The Weather Company issued its most aggressive outlook since it began seasonal forecasting in 2006 with 24 named storms, and AccuWeather is predicting up to 25 named storms.
“Everyone has a lot of high numbers out,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok told The Palm Beach Post. “When you see water temperatures the way they started in 2024 where they were two to four months ahead of schedule, it’s kind of incredible.”
Last year’s water temperatures were also abnormally warm, but there was an El Ni?o present. The periodic climate pattern acts to shred fledgling hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean by increasing wind shear.
The setup of warm water and El Ni?o was billed as a clash of titans with forecasters uncertain how the hurricane season would unfold.
Weather.com senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman said the warm water temperatures won as evidenced by the formation of 20 named storms.
“This year, we have two factors working together and reinforcing each other,” Erdman said. “El Ni?o is on its last legs. It’s completely out of gas.”
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in early May that La Ni?a could form as early as June but has a higher chance (69%) of developing between July and September. That corresponds with the peak of hurricane season mid-August through mid-October.
La Ni?a happens when Pacific waters cool, moving the location of where deep tropical thunderstorms form in the Pacific so that the wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean wanes during summer and fall. In winter, La Ni?a pulses storms into the Pacific Northwest on a more northerly and inland track, holding the jet stream at higher latitudes longer where it traps cold air to its north.
But there's no guarantee that the climate pattern will behave as predicted.
Hurricane preparedness tips
The Florida Division of Emergency Management provided several low? or no-cost tips for preparing for the upcoming hurricane season.
Make a plan: Create an emergency plan known to everyone in your household. The plan should cater to everyone’s specific needs, including kids, pets and seniors. Plans should include a list of personal needs and resources. You should plan for at least seven days of supplies. It should include important contact information, need-to-know information that could be useful in case of an emergency, an evacuation route and more.
Build a kit: Part of those plans should include an emergency kit. Emergency kits should include enough non-perishable foods and water to last at least seven days for each family member. This should also include extra medication and personal documents.
Make sure you sign up for emergency and weather alerts: When a storm is on the way, the news will be flooded with information, but it can be hard to stay abreast of all the updates. Ensure you are signed up for weather alerts from local officials and sources to keep you informed.
Know your zone: In the case of major hurricanes, it’s important to know what evacuation zone you live in and what your evacuation routes are, especially if you live in a mobile home or a flood-prone area.
Keep your gas tanks half full: Anyone living in an area with an approaching storm should ensure they keep their gas tanks at least half full. This will help ensure you have enough gas to evacuate at a moment’s notice.
How to find your hurricane evacuation zone
Thanks to the Know Your Zone app, finding your evacuation zone is easy. You can access the app from any device with an active internet connection and web browser by heading to myescambia.com/KnowYourZone.
Santa Rosa County evacuation zones are available here:
Evacuation zones are labeled A, B, C, D, E and none. Here is what each evacuation zone means:
Zone A: Surge up to 7 feet above ground level
Zone B: Surge up to 10 feet above ground level
Zone C: Surge up to 15 feet above ground level
Zone D: Surge up to 20 feet above ground level
Zone E: Surge up to 20+ feet above ground level
It’s important to check your evacuation zone each year as they are subject to change.
Hurricane evacuation shelters in Escambia County and Santa Rosa County
Here is a list of evacuation shelters in Escambia County. It’s important to know that not all shelters are open during each emergency. Always check that a shelter is open before driving to one.
Global Learning Academy – 100 N. P St.
Jim Bailey Middle School – 4110 Bauer Road
Molino Park Elementary School (pet-friendly shelter) – 899 Highway 97, Molino
Northview High School – 4100 W. Highway 4, Century
Pensacola Bay Center – 201 E. Gregory St.
Beulah Middle School – 6001 W. Nine Mile Road
Success Academy (special needs shelter) – Buildings 9, 25 and 26, 7045 Wymart Road
Emergency shelters in Santa Rosa County are:
Chumuckla Community Center – 2355 Highway 182
Jay High School – 3741 School St.
Milton Community Center – 5629 Byrom St.
S.S. Dixon Intermediate School – 5540 Education Drive
What should you bring to an evacuation shelter?
If you’re going to a public shelter, here is a list of items you should bring with you and your family, expecting to stay about four days.
Change of clothing, rain gear and shoes
Toiletries and personal items
Blankets or sleeping bags and pillows
Identification and important documents
Games, toys and books if you have kids (or just for yourself)
Special items for infants and elderly family members
Any special dietary needs and non-perishable foods for snacks
Battery-operated radio, flashlights and spare batteries
Prescription medications or over-the-counter medications you normally take
What do hurricane categories mean?
Hurricanes are categorized using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which has a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane’s sustained wind speed. It’s important to note that a hurricane’s category isn’t an exact representation of the storm’s damage potential. As Pensacolians learned during Hurricane Sally in 2021, all hurricanes are dangerous.
Hurricanes that reach Category 3 or higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. This scale does not address other hurricane-related impacts such as storm surge, rain-induced floods and tornadoes.
Category 1 – Wind speeds range between 74-95; minimal damage is expected at landfall
Category 2 – Wind speeds range between 96-110; extensive damage is expected at landfall
Category 3 – Wind speeds range between 111-129; devastating damage is expected at landfall
Category 4 – Wind speeds range between 130-156; catastrophic damage is expected at landfall
Category 5 – Wind speeds range between 157+; catastrophic damage is expected at landfall
Sign up for local weather alerts
The Pensacola News Journal serves its community by reporting on every storm – big or small – to ensure residents are aware of potential hazards and so they can make informed decisions when a hurricane is coming. Downloading our app and signing up for push alerts is a great way to stay on top of the latest developments in the Atlantic.
Pensacola area residents should also sign up for emergency alerts and know where to find the latest.
Following the city of Pensacola's alerts is simple. You can visit this page to sign up for a whole host of notifications. Scroll down to "Alert Center" to find the emergency alerts. Here you can subscribe to emergency and weather alerts via email and text message. You can also click to view previous messages.
If you live in Escambia County, you can visit myescambia.com and scroll down to the "BeReady Escambia" card. At the bottom of the card, you can click to view storm updates and sign up for alerts. When you sign up for alerts, you'll be prompted to choose from a list. Emergency updates should be preselected (double check that it is). Enter your email at the bottom of the pop-up and click the subscribe button to wrap up.
Santa Rosa County uses the AlertSantaRosa system to provide residents with critical information related to severe weather, evacuations, protective actions and more. Click here to jump over to the public warnings page. You will be taken to a new page that will provide you with information on how to sign up for public notifications, including how to sign up anonymously for emergency-only notifications.
Contributors: Kimberly Miller, Palm Beach Post
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Hurricane season is a week away. Here is what Floridians need to know