2024 elections: How Biden's pause on liquefied natural gas exports gives Texas GOP a cudgel

The Biden administration's decision to pause exports of liquefied natural gas pending the outcome a federal study about its effects on the climate threatens to put Democrats from energy-rich Texas on the defensive and gives Republicans more ammunition to paint their opponents as hostile to the state's signature industry just as the 2024 election cycle gains steam.

"I want to be respectful and gentle, but that's one of the dumbest things that's been done out of Washington, D.C., in a long time," U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, told reporters last week when asked about the pause. "This idea that somehow, in order to appease the president's environmental radicals (and) activists, we're going to hit the brakes on LNG exports. It's really a disservice not only to the people who work in the oil and gas industry here in Texas, but also to our friends and allies around the world who have come to depend on us. "

Cornyn's remark comes in the wake of a federal lawsuit filed March 21 by Texas and 15 other states asserting that the U.S. Department of Energy exceeded its authority when in January it ordered a temporary pause on exporting the product commonly called LNG and used in the generation of electricity and as a fuel for heating and cooking appliances. The lawsuit describes LNG as an “economic engine” that has generated billions of dollars in investments and is vital to America's energy-dependent trading partners.

While the lawsuit awaits action in the courts, Republicans are pressing ahead on the political front. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who unlike Cornyn is up for reelection this year, is seeking to hang the LNG pause on U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, heading toward their showdown on Election Day in November. Allred is challenging Cruz in his bid for a third term in the Senate.

"That was designed to be a 'screw you' to Texas  — to hurt Texas to hurt jobs in Texas," Cruz told a Houston TV station and later amplified it on social media last month in a reference to the LNG pause. "Colin Allred had a chance to vote to overturn that, and he voted with Biden and the Democrats."

Allred, who voted against a Republican-backed House bill titled Unlocking Our Domestic LNG Potential Act that would have rolled back the Energy Department's pause on LNG exports, pointed out in a statement on his campaign website that the pause is only temporary.

“I will always support Texas energy, and we must take an all-of-the-above approach to maintaining our energy independence, creating jobs and protecting the planet," the statement said. “I again urge the Administration to utilize our domestic LNG supply to both fortify our allies in Europe so they don’t have to rely on Russian gas, to reduce emissions as the global energy supply shifts away from coal and to support thousands of Texas jobs.”

How oil and gas drive the Texas economy

Allred's estimate on the number of oil and gas jobs in Texas is on the low side. The oil and gas industry was responsible for nearly 472,000 direct jobs in Texas in 2023 and about 2.5 million indirect jobs, according to a March 21 report by the Texas Independent Producers & Royalty Owners Association, an oil and gas industry advocate.

And the oil and gas industry is not just in the business of selling its product, it's also one of the state's major buyers, purchasing about $288 billion worth of goods and services last year, 83% of which came from Texas businesses, the report found.

In an opinion column published in several Texas news outlets last month, the head of the Texas Oil & Gas Association called the federal LNG export pause "a major mistake."

Todd Staples, a Republican who served two terms as Texas agriculture commissioner before becoming president of the oil and gas group in 2015, wrote that the state exported an average of 6.8 billion cubic feet of LNG per day in 2023, all while keeping the inflation-adjusted price at its lowest since 1994. Texas accounted for more than half of the nation's LNG exports last year, and the U.S. was the world's largest exporter of the product.

"What’s more, our research confirms that expanded LNG exports actually spur production and productivity gains, which help to drive prices down," Staples wrote. "In Texas, we know LNG exports have a substantial positive effect on our state’s economy."

LNG and the U.S. Senate race in Texas

Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, said Allred signaling his support for the Texas fossil fuel industry, at least in the short term, is unlikely to alienate Democratic environmentalists because their antipathy for Cruz runs much deeper than any disappointment they might have in the Dallas congressman.

More: Oil and Gas Politics Signal Market Growth According to Industry Insider Jeremy A. Paul

But no matter what complimentary things Allred might say about LNG, Cruz will continue to paint him as an anti-energy Democrat, which in Texas could tamp down support from those who are politically moderate as well as from independents — two groups that are vital to any effort to undercut Cruz's support in a Republican-friendly state, Jones said.

"I think the difficulty for (Allred) is regardless of whether he shifts his votes in a minor way, he's still going to get beat up heavily based on the fact that he's a Democrat and the person right above him on the ballot is Joe Biden," Jones said. "And it's Joe Biden whose policies and actions are having a negative impact on the oil and natural gas industry."

Biden's past comments on oil and gas

The political roots to the LNG export pause and the box it put at least some Texas Democrats in can be traced back nearly four years to Biden's successful bid for the presidency.

During a debate in 2020 with incumbent Donald Trump, Biden complicated life for Texas Democrats who often must walk a fine line between the desire of their party's progressive base for cleaner energy resources and their need to accommodate the state's powerful oil and gas sector.

Asked about climate policy in the debate's final moment, Biden responded: "I would transition away from the oil industry, yes." When asked why, he responded, "Because the oil industry pollutes, significantly. It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time."

The Biden camp later sought to walk back his comment, saying the intent was to end federal subsidies for the industry, but Texas Republicans hammered their opponents on the original remark from then until Election Day.

"There's already a built-in narrative in Texas that national Democrats are hostile to oil and natural gas, and anything that buttresses or highlights that narrative, such as the LNG ban, reinforces the view among people whose livelihoods depend directly or indirectly on oil and natural gas," Jones said.

Some Texas Democrats are pushing back against LNG export pause

Not all congressional Democrats from Texas are playing defense on oil and gas, or playing nice with Biden on the issue. U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo, Marc Veasey of Fort Worth and Vicente Gonzalez of Brownsville voted with Republicans on the House measure that would have rolled back the LNG export pause. And they were joined by Allred and two other Democrats, all of whom voted against forcing an end to the pause, in a Feb. 1 letter to Biden urging him to support the exporting of LNG.

More: Oil, coal and gas are doomed, global leaders say in historic resolution

“As the United States continues to lead in global stability and energy resources, the export of U.S. LNG is a linchpin for fostering strong international partnerships, diversifying energy supplies, and reducing dependence on volatile regions," the letter said. "The Administration’s support for U.S. LNG is not only a boon for America but a beacon for the world’s pursuit of cleaner, more sustainable energy sources.”

Cuellar, whose 28th Congressional District is part of the oil- and gas-producing Eagle Ford Shale, has been called “Big Oil's Favorite Democrat” and has a longstanding reputation for bucking his party's progressive wing when it comes to energy policies.

"Liquefied natural gas is a major economic driver for our country and South Texas," Cuellar said on X last week. "We must continue to support LNG and ensure our security in the energy economy and global markets."

Even though the effort to bring an early end to the LNG export pause failed in the U.S. House, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has floated the idea of tying the issue to an Ukraine aid package the White House is pushing. While there was some early hope that the administration and congressional Republicans might reach a deal on the matter, prospects soon dimmed.

At a news briefing last week, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre sidestepped questions of whether Biden would lift the LNG export pause to secure more U.S. aid for Ukraine as the Russian invasion continues.

"I’m just not going to negotiate from the podium," Jean-Pierre said.  "I’m not going to get into hypotheticals."

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Texas Democrats walk fine line on energy, climate amid LNG export pause