2024 Presidential election odds: How bettors are seeing race since Trump-Biden debate
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump may have a stronger indicator of the reaction to the first Presidential debate than the polls: the betting odds.
Bettors have had a strong track record of picking the President, only losing twice since the 1800's.
The betting market, which bookmakers can't legally take action on in the US, shifted to the right after the debate between Biden and Trump, according to Lee Phelps, a spokesperson for UK betting house William Hill.
"Trump and Biden have traded outright favouritism in the market for several months now, but June’s debate seems to be the heaviest blow dealt by either, so far, with Trump pulling away to 4/7 from 4/5 for a return to the White House later this year," Phelps said in an email to USA TODAY.
The question of Biden continuing the campaign has moved money in the betting market, according to Phelps.
"An intriguing subplot is whether the Democrats will turn to Kamala Harris to spearhead their campaign instead of the incumbent Biden. Harris is an 11/2 shot, only a shade longer than Biden (9/2) in the betting and much shorter than her price of 11/1 just two weeks ago," Phelps said.
Here are the betting odds for the Presidential election as of July 10.
Presidential election betting odds
William Hill
Donald Trump: 4/7
Joe Biden: 9/2
Kamala Harris: 11/2
Gavin Newsom: 10/1
Michelle Obama: 12/1
Bovada
Donald Trump: -180
Joe Biden: +375
Kamala Harris: +600
Michelle Obama: +2000
Robert Kennedy: +4500
BetOnline
Donald Trump: -200
Joe Biden: +475
Kamala Harris: +475
Michelle Obama: +2300
Gavin Newsom: +2300
Oddschecker
Donald Trump: -169
Joe Biden: +820
Kamala Harris: +800
Gavin Newsom: +2500
Michelle Obama: +2800
How accurate have betting odds been in past Presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation.
The two upsets came in 1948, when Harry Truman (D) beat eight to one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey (R), and in 2016, when Trump overcame seven to two odds to beat Hillary Clinton (D).
Biden was the betting favorite in the 2020 race, holding the pole position with Oddscheker from May through November.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 Presidential election odds shift towards Trump after debate
