3 big questions voters can answer in Arizona's July 30 primary election

We interrupt the Mark Kelly watch — will he or won’t he be Kamala Harris’ running mate? — to remind Arizonans there’s an important election coming up next week.

One that could tell us just how dominant the MAGA movement really is in GOP circles — and whether Democrats have a shot of repeating 2022 and making further inroads on power long held by Republicans.

Any registered Republican or independent can vote in Tuesday’s Republican primary. To find a polling place in Maricopa County, go to the county’s website.

Here are three storylines worth watching:

Will the hard-right lose the Legislature?

Watch Legislative District 1, where Sen. Ken Bennett is being challenged by former Rep. Mark Finchem.

Bennett, a traditional conservative who has served both as Senate president and secretary of state, has singlehandedly stopped the Arizona Freedom Caucus from imposing several extreme ideas on the state, primarily dealing with immigration and elections.

That’s made him a prime target of the hard right, which is backing one of the state’s most fervent MAGA warriors, Mark Finchem. Fresh off his 2022 loss for secretary of state, Finchem has carpetbagged his way from southern Arizona to ruby-red Yavapai County, where he hopes he can spin fantastical tales of stolen elections into a seat in the Senate.

Bennett should have the edge, having lived and worked in Prescott for decades. He also has a secret weapon: Steve Zipperman.

Zipperman lost a close race to Bennett in 2022. This year, he’s running again and will have to share the hard-core conspiracy vote with Finchem.

Advantage: Bennett.

Watch Legislative District 7, where Sen. Wendy Rogers faces Rep. David Cook.

Rogers was that perennial politician who never won anything until 2020, when she moved from her Tempe home into a Flagstaff trailer and spent buckets of money to knock off then-Sen. Sylvia Allen.

Since then she has become a rock star on the right, never mind her seeming affinity for people who spout white nationalist and antisemitic nonsense. She’s a master of hyping election conspiracy theories to raise a mountain of campaign cash, mostly from people out of state.

This year, she’s being challenged by Cook, a Globe cattle rancher who has deep roots in this rural Arizona district and is term limited in the House.

Rogers could be vulnerable. Her unwavering support of Steve Slaton — the state House candidate accused of falsely claiming to be a Vietnam War combat pilot and using racial slurs to refer to his Black opponents — is an eyebrow raiser.

So is the fact that her travel reimbursement checks are mailed to her home in Tempe, raising the question once again of whether she even lives in the district.

Meanwhile, a group tied to organized labor has spent $330,000 to oppose Rogers’ reelection.

Advantage: Rogers. Two years ago, the Senate censured her for inciting violence at a white nationalist conference and conduct unbecoming a senator. She glided to reelection anyway. Hard to argue that much has changed.

Watch Legislative District 17, where Sen. Justine Wadsack hopes to fend off former Sen. Vince Leach.

In 2022, Wadsack moved out of her midtown Tucson home, renting a room in this safe Republican district 20 miles north, where she proceeded to knock off Leach.

This year, Leach hopes to return the favor. He’s a traditional conservative backed by much of the business and law enforcement community. She’s a member of the Freedom Caucus, one of a bumper crop of culture warriors waging war on all things “woke.”

Leach has waged a bruising ad campaign featuring Wadsack’s belief that 9/11 was an “inside job,” that the May 2022 massacre of 19 children and two adults at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, was a false flag operation and most recently, that Wadsack is trying to duck a criminal speeding ticket for doing 71 mph in a 35 zone.

Democrats are watching this one closely. After defeating Leach in the 2022 primary, Wadsack beat her Democratic opponent with just 51.2% of the vote in the district that favors Republicans by 10%.

Advantage: Leach. In 2022, Leach split the traditional conservative vote with a third candidate in the race. This year, it’s a head-to-head race, with the possibility of Republican control of the Senate on the line.

Will MAGA seize control of Maricopa County?

The conspiracy wing of the GOP, still seething over election loses, is taking aim at the Republicans who run the county, apparently believing that they are part of a plot to turn over control of the state to Democrats.

Public Enemy No. 1 is Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, who in MAGA circles is considered the devil who singlehandedly denied Kari Lake her due, with backup from his dark angels on the Board of Supervisors.

Never mind that they’ve provided no credible evidence or explanation for why a Republican recorder would want to rig an election for a Democrat to become governor.

Richer is facing two MAGA challengers, Don Hiatt and Rep. Justin Heap, the Arizona Freedom Caucus pick who may — or may not — actually be MAGA.

Just a year ago, Heap posted on social media that he wasn’t part of the MAGA movement and, in fact, wasn’t a Trump supporter. Now, of course, he’s all in.

Other county races to watch include:

Maricopa County board of supervisors.

The hard right is coming hard after Supervisor Tom Galvin with Michelle Ugenti-Rita, a former state legislator who finished fourth in the four-way GOP race for secretary of state in 2022. Ugenti-Rita has a trunk full baggage — most recently an allegation of mortgage fraud — but she’s got the backing of MAGA activists.

Meanwhile, Supervisor Chairman Jack Sellers faces a primary challenge from Chandler City Councilman Mark Stewart, who curiously won’t say whether Joe Biden and Katie Hobbs won their elections. Stewart is the MAGA pick.

A victory by Stewart could open the way for Democrats to snag this Chandler-based district. In 2020, Sellers defeated Democrat Jevon Hodge by just 403 votes, 45.12% to 45.04%.

Maricopa County attorney.

Incumbent Rachel Mitchell once again faces Gina Godbehere, a former prosecutor who lost to Mitchell in 2022. No less than the MAGA queen herself, Kari Lake, is supporting Godbehere after Mitchell had the nerve to defend the county against Lake’s claims of a rigged 2022 election. Meanwhile, Mitchell has the support of police associations across the Valley.

Can Trump deliver for Abe Hamadeh?

Hamadeh, who lost a tight attorney general’s race in 2022, has a golden ticket in the race to replace U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko: a Trump endorsement. But the latest polling shows Blake Masters with a slight lead.

Masters, who in 2022 ran alongside Hamadeh on the losing America First ticket, has run a bare-knuckle campaign against Hamadeh, including insinuations about his personal life, campaign signs showing Hamadeh in traditional Muslim garb and a leaked text exchange from last year in which Hamadeh mocked “the crazies” who believe the election was stolen.

House Speaker Ben Toma, a traditional Republican who actually lives in the district and has a record of conservative accomplishment, is running third but with just days to go, it’s looking like this northwest Valley district will be represented either by the MAGA guy from Scottsdale (Hamadeh) or the MAGA guy from Tucson (Masters).

Whomever wins on Tuesday likely has a job for life.

Reach Roberts at [email protected]. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) at @LaurieRobertsaz.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona primary election will show us how powerful MAGA really is