5 things to watch in the Trump-Biden debate

President Biden and former President Trump will face off in Atlanta on Thursday in the first of two planned debates as both men battle for the edge in a tight and contentious race.

The history-making showdown will mark the first debate for each of the White House hopefuls since 2020, as well the first between a sitting and former president.

Here are five big things to watch: 

What version of Trump shows up?  

Trump’s combative nature was on full blast four years ago when he came face-to-face with Biden at their first 2020 presidential debate, which some Republicans say cost him the election.

But last week at a rally in Philadelphia, Trump asked supporters whether he should be “tough or nasty” or “be nice and calm” at the debate.

“I think you’re going to see a combination,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist. “What Trump is going to want people to eventually come away with thinking is that Biden doesn’t have the ability, the agility, the mental acuity to serve another four years.”

But Trump’s typical brash performance style could again come across as too much against a more restrained showing from Biden, said Aaron Kall, the director of the University of Michigan’s debate program.

The former president needs to defy “the caricature that it exists of him as a debater” and avoid turning the debate into a campaign rally, Kall said.

But Democrats say they are hoping for Trump’s signature bombastic behavior, which they believe will refresh voters’ memories of his administration.

“President Biden’s case is strengthened by voters remembering how chaotic American politics was when Donald Trump was president,” said Jamal Simmons, former communications director for Vice President Harris. “The more Americans see Donald Trump in full, the more likely they are to reject him.”

Does Biden come across as sharp?

Biden’s reelection bid has been plagued by concerns about his age and fitness for another four years, and his camp has voiced frustration as his onstage slipups make headlines.

On Thursday, he may look to replicate his fiery, political appearance at this year’s State of the Union.

“The president shows up in a way that gives people a lot of comfort,” Simmons said. “If he performs at the debates the way he performed at the last two states of the union, I think that people will feel very comfortable with President Biden being reelected.”

Trump, too, has faced scrutiny for some verbal mix-ups — and both candidates will be working to avoid slips that could be spun into an unsavory viral moment.

How are Trump and Hunter Biden’s guilty verdicts handled?

Trump will take Thursday’s debate stage as the first former president convicted of felony crimes after a jury in Manhattan last month found him guilty of falsifying business records.

The conviction threw the 2024 presidential race into uncharted waters, but polling so far suggests the legal blow has largely failed to dent Trump’s momentum, with Trump holding an edge in critical swing states even after the verdict.

Still, Biden’s campaign has been leaning in on Trump’s conviction – raising questions about whether it will take up significant airtime during Thursday’s debate.

Blunting Republicans’ arguments of a weaponized Justice Department is the recent conviction of Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, in a federal gun case.

The incumbent isn’t implicated, but some Democrats have raised concerns that it could weigh heavy on Biden as he tries for another term.

Hunter Biden faces a second trial in September, a couple of weeks ahead of the second scheduled presidential debate.

“Biden will try to provoke Trump as much as possible … he wants the out-of-control Trump, not the measured, presidential Trump,” said Erik Nisbet, a Northwestern University professor of policy analysis and communication.

Trump, meanwhile, may use the Hunter Biden story to “provoke Biden to be emotional and somehow seem weak,” he added.

Does Trump spar with the CNN moderators?

Debate week kicked off on Monday with CNN anchor Kasie Hunt tussling with Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt over the moderator’s treatment of Trump. Hunt cut off the interview after Leavitt repeatedly attacked CNN anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash.

The incident appeared to ratchet up tensions between the former president and cable news outlet, which go back to his first presidential run in 2015.

“The biggest concern if you’re Trump right now is not Biden as much as it is the moderators,” said one Republican strategist. “That’s why you saw Karoline put them on notice.

“This is a lot like right before a boxing match, you’re going to try to loosen up the referees,” the strategist added.

Much of Trump’s political career has been defined by his attacks on the news media, which he and his supporters argue is biased against him and conservatives.

“I would be surprised if he did not attack the media, and the negotiators, and the rules from the stage,” said Simmons, who is a CNN political commentator.

Will there be a clear winner?

Following the debate, both Biden and Trump will claim victory. What is less clear is how much of an impact the event will have on the campaign overall.

Unlike past presidential debates, this year’s first debate is taking place prior to the parties’ nominating conventions. Democrats are hoping that the early timing of this debate and the September one will give them a boost with early and mail-in voting.

“Having a debate early helps people focus on Trump,” Simmons said, referring to voters who have not been as tuned in to the election prior to the debate.

Republicans say that won’t necessarily matter, pointing to Biden’s handling of issues including inflation and immigration.

“What’s different here is Joe Biden is saddled with a record and it’s not 2020 when you’re talking about the possible President Joe Biden,” O’Connell said.

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