6 important things to watch at the Tim Walz-JD Vance debate

In this exceedingly tight election race, Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance are serving up one of the most consequential vice presidential debates in U.S. history, one that could make or break their respective tickets in the final five weeks of the fight for the White House.

The running mates typically host a snoozy undercard, but polls show a seesaw contest in each of the battleground states, and given that Tuesday's meeting in New York is likely the final debate of the 2024 campaign, this marks one of the last chances for either campaign to score a decisive blow against the other.

And as much as Walz and Vance differ, politically speaking, both have presented themselves as the everyman who better represents Midwestern values and spotlighted their rural, working-class roots in an attempt to win over undecided voters.

"The clash between their very different personas makes the debate quite interesting," said Robert Rowland, a former national champion college debater and professor of communication studies at the University of Kansas. "I think the core political conflict in the debate is a battle for which campaign actually represents working people in the country."

Vance, known as a policy wonk, has dived headfirst into his role as 2024 Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's attack dog by throwing culture war barbs that animate the team's MAGA-fueled base, particularly when it comes to illegal immigration.

The sharp elbows of the 2024 contest have left their mark on the Ohio senator, however. He has seen his poll numbers nosedive since receiving the VP nomination.

An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey released this month finds about half of registered voters have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Vance, compared with the roughly 3 in 10 voters who have a negative view of Walz.

As of late, he has been scorched by liberal critics for spreading unfounded claims about Haitian migrants eating pets in his state and past comments criticizing childless Americans.

As Walz has taken the national stage, he has tried to position himself as Vice President Kamala Harris' plainspoken messenger whose energetic and quick-witted style caught voters' attention after he dubbed the GOP "weird" in the weeks before he was put on the ticket.

The Minnesota governor, however, isn't without weaknesses that Vance could exploit in an effort to show that the Democratic ticket is too liberal, namely Walz's progressive record since taking office in St. Paul in January 2019. He has faced similar scrutiny for making misleading statements, such as embellishing parts of his past military service record and criticism from conservatives on how he handled the 2020 riots after George Floyd died at the hands of police in Minneapolis.

With early voting underway and another presidential debate unlikely, here's what to look for ahead of Tuesday's showdown.

Hot mics allowed

How Walz and Vance interact ? handshake, eye rolls, cross-talk bickering ? will depend in part on the debate rules, and a significant difference from the Harris-Trump faceoff will be CBS News allowing hot microphones.

The Harris campaign wanted a rule change from the June debate on CNN between President Joe Biden and Trump by having the mics turned on even when a candidate was not speaking.

Many political observers thought the reason Harris wanted this during the September presidential debate hosted by ABC News was to catch Trump in a viral moment. Harris' team ultimately folded to have the mics be muted when a candidate is not speaking.

Under these conditions, CBS News is reserving the right to mute either candidates' microphones, but otherwise every word between the two will be heard by the viewing audience.

Haitian migrants and the immigration fight

Vance's stiffest questions from the moderators, CBS' Norah O'Donnell and Margaret Brennan, could stem from his willingness to spread unfounded rumors about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, eating household pets.

The small city has been thrust into the national spotlight and faced threats in recent weeks, but thus far the Republican senator has been unapologetic about publicly airing the claims, which include that Haitians are causing tuberculosis and HIV to rise in the area. He maintains it is about bringing attention to voters' concerns about immigration to the forefront even in the face of threatening calls and bomb threats in the area and racist rants by members of Congress.

"Kamala Harris calls anyone a racist if they complain about her open border," Vance said in a Sept. 23 post on X.

"You're not a bad person for wanting to stop the flow of mass illegal immigration and deadly fentanyl," he added. "Americans who want a secure border have nothing to be ashamed of, but Kamala Harris sure does."

Walz and his military service record

One area Walz might be vulnerable to attacks are questions around his 24 years of service in the National Guard.

In 2018, Walz spoke in favor of stricter gun laws after a mass shooting in Florida by asserting how the firearms used in that incident were similar to the weapons he "carried in war."

But the Democratic governor was never deployed for combat, and he dodged a question about this misleading claim during his first sit-down interview since earning the VP nomination with CNN.

The Harris campaign later told USA TODAY that Walz "misspoke" in 2018 before defending how he did "handle weapons of war" while in the guard.

Vance, a retired Marine and Iraq War veteran, has accused Walz of ducking deployment by strategically retiring to run for Congress before his unit was called up in 2005.

Walz's unit received its alert order to mobilize for Iraq in July 2005, which was about two months after he had retired. But he appeared to know as early as March 2005 that his battalion could be sent to Iraq, according to past press statements.

Instead of responding, Walz has thanked Vance for his service on the campaign trail – but how he responds on the debate stage will be telling should he be pressed on the topic.

Two versions of the American everyman

Call it the everyman debate, but much of the 2024 campaign has been about the gender divide and the two campaigns' dueling views on the role men play in U.S. society that are embodied by their respective VP picks.

Vance, in particular, has been at the center of this discussion mostly for his comments describing women without biological children as "childless cat ladies" who have "no direct stake" in America.

Younger women are far more liberal than in years past, polling shows, and Harris often says the 2024 election is a referendum on the loss of abortion access after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. in 2022.

Her campaign isn't subtle about it. It used actor Sam Elliott in an ad encouraging men to "be a man and vote for a woman," and it held a livestreamed town hall hosted by Oprah Winfrey that was reminiscent of her hit talk show, which made her an icon among female viewers.

Walz, similarly, has positioned himself and been lauded by Harris supporters as the caring "coach" or protective "dad in plaid," a foil to those who would deny women reproductive rights.

The Trump campaign, on the other hand, has been heavily courting younger male voters since the GOP convention.

The former president often appears at male-centered events, such as UFC fights with singer Kid Rock, and joining podcasts hosted by figures such as influencer Logan Paul, comedian Theo Von and online streamer Adin Ross.

A survey by Blueprint, a Democratic polling firm, released findings this past week showing 55% of men think the Democratic Party has "moved too far to the left."

"What really seems to be pushing them away from the Democratic Party are economic issues," said Evan Ross Smith, the pollster who did the survey. "Men seem to be just drifting rightward on things like tax cuts and and all sorts of economic things where they just don't think the Democratic Party can can deliver as much anymore."

That plays out in how men and women view Harris' and Trump's running mates too, the survey finds.

Of the roughly 1,200 men polled, Vance's net favorable ratings broke even, while Walz had a negative 4% rating, the poll shows. Among the approximately 580 female respondents, Vance had a negative 15% net favorable versus Walz, who held a positive 17% net favorable.

Andrew T. Walker, a professor of Christian ethics and public theology at Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, said Vance in particular will be expected to defend the traditional family and gender roles in a way that doesn’t offend but also push back at language around "toxic masculinity" that he said a portion of men resent.

"There is a male population that feels like they have been told that they are the problem of society," Walker said. "And (Vance) is trying to tap into this of silent male majority that feels elite cosmopolitan liberalism or progressivism has tried to scapegoat and accuse them of being guilty of all of these social crimes and social sins."

Linking ‘Hillbilly’ bio to Harris record, economic concerns

Vance's chief goal will be casting the Democratic ticket too far to the left on a host of issues, namely inflation and illegal immigration.

Part of that will be calling out Harris for changing her position on key issues but also anchoring the incumbent vice president to the Biden administration's record, especially by convincing poor and working-class voters that they were better off four years ago when Trump was in the White House.

Rowland, the debate expert, said that rather than launching into attacks at the outset, the senator's own life story, covered in-depth in Vance's bestselling book, "Hillbilly Elegy," could provide a softer approach that works in the first exchanges.

"Vance was picked in large part because of his biography and his narrative of overcoming poverty and familial dysfunction through hard work," he said.

Vance is expected to call out Walz, like Harris, as someone who has pretended to be a moderate while leading one of the most liberal states in the country. His mission is to do that while also avoiding his own gaffes.

“Vance needs to not come across as weird and stay out of the 'Whoa, that dude is stuck in 1950' on social issues," Republican consultant Liz Mair said.

Warning of Trump's return but fleshing out Harris' goals

Walz is largely expected to frame the 2024 election as most Democrats have this year: as a last chance to halt Trump from returning to the White House.

Repeatedly on social media, the governor ties the GOP nominee to the Project 2025 plan, written by the Heritage Foundation with help from more than 100 other conservative groups.

But what Walz is expected to do most on Tuesday is help Harris flesh out her agenda for voters who are still unsure about her goals and specific policy prescriptions.

Democratic strategist Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC, said Walz may have a more difficult task than Vance in that regard.

"He does have to play to a much broader audience and set of voters because they are trying to build a new coalition," she said.

On the campaign trail, Walz has managed to combine strong attacks against Trump and portray himself as a caring everyman by his skillful use of humor as a strategy.

Rowland said he expects the Minnesota Democrat to outline how Harris cares about ordinary people and explain how her policies would actually work while portraying Trump as someone "who never cared about anyone but himself."

"Given his affable persona, I think there is less risk of Walz saying something truly horrible that shifts public opinion of him," Rowland said.

"But one reason debates are interesting is their unpredictability," he added. "Either candidate could say something egregious that ends up shifting the race."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: VP debate guide: 6 key things to watch for as Walz, Vance face off