63 days to election: Betting odds split down the middle for Harris and Trump
The election is 63 days away, and betting odds are split down the middle on which presidential candidate could win on Election Day.
Vice President Kamala Harris holds the narrowest lead over former President Donald Trump of any recent Democratic nominee at this point in the election, with both candidates sitting at -110, according to Covers.
By contrast, Hillary Clinton's odds stood at -323 at the 75-day mark, but Clinton went on to lose the election.
However, the U.K. oddsmaker Betfair Exchange still favors Harris over Trump with Harris' odds sitting at +112 to Trump's -102.
The action, which U.S. oddsmakers cannot take part in legally, moved definitively toward the vice president during the Harris-Walz ticket's honeymoon but has cooled in recent weeks.
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Presidential election odds timeline
Presidential election odds as of Sept. 2
Bet 365
Kamala Harris: -110
Donald Trump: -110
Bovada
Donald Trump: -115
Kamala Harris: -105
BetOnline
Kamala Harris: -110
Donald Trump: -110
Oddschecker
Donald Trump: +100
Kamala Harris: +110
Odds narrower than polls
The statistical tie amongst the oddsmakers is narrower than the slight lead for Harris suggested by recent polls.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released Thursday found that Harris leads nationally 48%-43%, marking an eight-point turnaround from June, when President Joe Biden was the nominee.
The swing in the poll was fueled by parts of the traditional Democratic coalition “moving home” after the candidate swap and the DNC.
Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
Hispanics moved from supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
Black voters moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%.
Voters making less than $20,000 moved from supporting Trump by three points to supporting Harris by 23 points, 58%-35%
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday found similar topline results, showing Harris ahead 45% to 41% among registered voters. In the poll, Harris had a 13-point lead over Trump with women and Hispanic voters. A Wall Street Journal poll also released Thursday showed that the Vice President was ahead 48%-47% in a head-to-head match-up and 47%-45% when alternative candidates were included. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released late Thursday had Harris either ahead or in a statistical tie in Midwestern and Sun Belt battleground states.
A Fox News poll of battleground states released Wednesday showed that the Democrats were slightly ahead in most Sun Belt battleground states.
The poll had the race at:
Arizona: Harris 50% - Trump 49%
Georgia: Harris 50% - Trump 48%
Nevada: Harris 50% - Trump 48%
North Carolina: Trump 50% - Harris 49%
The poll found that Trump equaled his 2020 vote percentage in the head-to-head race in every state except Georgia, while Harris meets or exceeds Biden’s 2020 vote share across the states.
How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
Harris held the narrowest lead over Trump of any recent Democratic nominee at the 75-day mark, sitting at -102 at U.K. oddsmaker Betfair Exchange. By contrast Hillary Clinton's odds stood at -323, but Clinton went on to lose the election in one of the two times the betting underdog won on election night.
The other upset came in 1948, when Harry Truman (D) beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey (R).
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Harris vs. Trump: Where the betting odds stand 63 days before election