Abortion initiative is just the latest election disaster for Arizona Republicans

To absolutely no one’s surprise, the drive to enshrine the right to an abortion in the Arizona Constitution is making like a freight train as it thunders toward the November ballot.

Backers of the Arizona Abortion Access Act announced on Tuesday that they’ve collected more than 500,000 signatures — with a goal of turning in double the 383,923 needed to earn a spot on the ballot.

Elsewhere in political news, Democrat Ruben Gallego has announced that his U.S. Senate campaign raised an eye-popping $7.5 million in the first three months of the year, more than doubling his previous quarterly totals.

Meanwhile, Republican Abe Hamadeh lost yet another 2022 election challenge this week and Kari Lake is headed to Mar-a-Lago for a fundraiser, hoping to cash in on the star power that is Roseanne Barr.

Arizona GOP struggles to keep lights on

As for the Arizona Republican Party, it’s just hoping to keep the lights on.

Party leaders on Monday confessed to the Federal Elections Commission that they couldn’t make rent “for multiple months” in 2023 due to their "shortage of cash-flow and donations,” according to a report from the Arizona’s Politics blog.

As the swing state of Arizona charges into a crucial election season, fate appears to be smiling on the Democratic Party that, until a few years ago, was basically a nonentity in statewide politics.

For that, Democrats have Donald Trump to thank. That, and the hard right takeover of both the Republican Party and the U.S. Supreme Court.

Unless abortion foes can figure out a way to derail it, the Arizona Abortion Access Act appears a slam dunk to make the ballot.

The proposal confers the constitutional right to an abortion until the point of fetal viability, around 24 weeks, but it also would allow abortion beyond that if a doctor deems it necessary to protect the physical or mental health of the mother.

Court ruling will do them no favors

Its placement on the November ballot seems likely to boost voter turnout for Democrats, which is no small thing in a battleground state that Joe Biden won by just 0.3%.

And if the Arizona Supreme Court reinstates the 1864 territorial law that criminalizes abortion, a decision that could come any day now?

Well then, whoa. Republicans will be facing a full-on five-alarm fire — one that could consume their grip on the state Legislature.

Kari Lake's chances of winning: Seem dimmer by the day

Of course, GOP legislators could have taken a giant target off their backs by repealing that 1864 abortion law, ensuring that the 15-week ban they passed in 2022 remains in effect.

Polling shows Arizona voters support a woman’s right to choose to a certain point, and Republicans could have made the case that 15 weeks is a fair compromise.

But because the hard right runs the Legislature, that 1864 ban remains on the books, leaving the state Supreme Court to sort it out.

Abortion could hurt Republican candidates

Republican political strategists shake their heads at that.

“These are losing issues for them,” Republican consultant Tyler Montague told me. “They should have repealed that 1800s law and let the 15-week ban stand. Now they are going to get the ballot initiative backlash they earned for not being strategic thinkers on the issue.”

“See Cathi Herrod,” said longtime GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin, referring to the conservative Center for Arizona Policy’s president. “True Believers are extremists.”

With abortion front and center on the ballot, Republican candidates will have to take a stand.

That’s a tricky thing, given that reproductive rights have passed in every state where the issue has been put to a public vote, including conservative states like Ohio and Kansas.

What else has the Legislature accomplished?

Consider Kari Lake’s rather painful contortions. She who just two years ago called abortion the “ultimate sin” now says she wouldn’t vote to ban it.

Expect to see similar wiggling from Republican lawmakers.

Republicans who could have — should have — helped themselves by at least trying to minimize the coming backlash.

Republicans who are now about to scale back their work at the state Capitol to one day a week, having accomplished nothing this year.

This, so they can get on the campaign trail to tell us why they should continue to control the Legislature.

Sure, that makes sense.

Reach Roberts at [email protected]. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter, at @LaurieRoberts or on Threads at laurierobertsaz.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Abortion initiative could put Arizona Republicans on the ropes