Abortion ruling is a full-on disaster for Arizona Republicans
The Arizona Supreme Court set off a political earthquake on Tuesday, resuscitating a 160-year-old territorial law making abortion a criminal act.
But it’s the aftershocks that will be long lasting.
That movement you feel under your feet? That’s one of America’s key battleground states swinging blue.
Republicans are cheering today -- or in the case of some, backpedaling -- but what they should be doing is strategizing about how to get out of a political mess of their own making.
If that’s even possible at this point. I’m not sure it is, given the makeup of their voter base and their own sincerely held belief that abortion is, as Kari Lake has said, “the ultimate sin.”
Democrats could flip the Arizona Legislature
But here is what is clear: If the GOP-run Legislature does nothing and allows this 19th century law to stand, Republicans soon could be looking at a state where abortion is a constitutional right and Democrats take total control of the state.
The Arizona for Abortion Access initiative, enshrining abortion into the state constitution, already has the signatures to get on the November ballot. It already was going to boost voter turnout, which is no small thing in a state that Joe Biden won by just 0.3%.
But now, with a Civil War-era law in place that criminalizes abortion except to save the life of the mother?
If I were Donald Trump or Kari Lake, I’d be frantic.
If I were Reps. David Schweikert or Juan Ciscomani, running in swing congressional districts, I’d be gnawing my teeth into nubs.
Republican candidates should be nervous
Ditto for the Republicans who cling to a bare one-vote margin in both the state House and Senate.
Supreme Court Justices Clint Bolick and Kathryn King, two of the four Doug Ducey appointees who reinstated the 19th Century abortion ban, must stand for retention on the November ballot.
I’m pretty sure Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs would be delighted to appoint two new justices to the all-Republican court should voters boot the pair out .
The fallout from this ruling is likely to be vast and deep, and I’m not sure there’s much that Republicans can do to stop it.
“If the Legislature doesn’t take action to repeal the 1800s law, Democrats will gleefully tout their ballot initiative as a way to turn out more Democratic voters and win elections across the board,” Republican strategist Tyler Montague told me. “It may hand them control of the Legislature.”
“It puts a stronger wind at the Democrats’ back,” longtime Republican consultant Chuck Coughlin told me. “It probably helps create a more enthusiastic reasoning about taking back both (legislative) chambers. And it hurts Trump and Lake.”
Kari Lake flails at explaining her flip-flop
Already, Lake is spinning madly.
“I have traveled to every corner of this state on the campaign trail. I speak to more Arizonans than anyone and it is abundantly clear that the pre-statehood law is out of step with Arizonans,” she said on Tuesday in response to the Supreme Court ruling.
Funny, that isn’t what she was saying two years ago, a few weeks before Roe v. Wade was overturned, when she said she called the 1864 ban a “great” law during a GOP candidate forum.
Law is clear: Women must now fight for our lives
“We have a great law on the books right now, if that happens, we will be a state where we will not be taking the lives of our unborn anymore,” she said while running for governor.
Of course, GOP legislators could have taken a giant target off Republicans’ backs by proactively repealing that 1864 law, ensuring that the 15-week ban they passed in 2022 remains in effect.
Polling shows Arizona voters support a woman’s right to choose to a certain point, and Republicans could have made the case that 15 weeks is a fair compromise.
But because the hard right runs the Legislature, that 1864 ban remained on the books, leaving the Supreme Court to rattle their world.
How will MAGA explain abortion now?
So what now?
Within hours of the Supreme Court ruling, Gov. Katie Hobbs called on the Legislature to repeal the old law, which goes into effect in 60 days.
But how does a MAGA Legislature extract itself from the box it built?
If Republicans repeal the 1864 law now about to take effect, they make a mockery of their own belief that life begins at conception and all abortion is murder.
If they put a competing measure on the ballot, proposing that abortion be legal for up to 15 weeks, they risk alienating their voter base and send a message that the “ultimate sin” is negotiable.
And if they do nothing, disaster.
As Lake tweeted in 2022, “ALL Baby Lives Matter — every single heartbeat is a gift from God & we will never stop fighting to protect life.”
Except when they do, because political lives matter ... more?
Disclaimer: My sister sits on the Arizona Supreme Court. Prior to the ruling’s release, I had no idea what the court would decide or how she voted. Conversely, she has no idea of what I’m writing in response. It’s better that way for peace and harmony at family gatherings.
Reach Roberts at [email protected]. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) at @LaurieRoberts.
Support local journalism: Subscribe to azcentral.com today.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Abortion ruling is a full-on disaster for Arizona Republicans
