AccuWeather predicts 'explosive' 2024 hurricane season; North Carolina coast at risk
AccuWeather has predicted an "explosive" 2024 hurricane season, which may bring higher risks of direct hurricane impact to the coast of North Carolina. Here's what to know.
What months do most hurricanes occur?
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through the end of November. Long-range forecasters at AccuWeather say that now is the time to prepare for the potentially destructive string of tropical systems. Signs show that the first named hurricane could appear before the official season start date.
"The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said.
More: Hurricane season could be a doozy
AccuWeather 2024 hurricane season forecast
Here's the AccuWeather forecast for the upcoming season:
20-25 named storms
8-12 hurricanes
4-7 major hurricanes
4-6 direct U.S. impacts
Texas, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas face heightened risk.
Potential to break all-time record of 30 named storms in one season.
Accuweather
Embedded content: https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024_atlantic_season_forecast.jpg?w=632
Factors driving the 'hyperactive' hurricane season
AccuWeather reports say that two major factors are contributing to this year's predicted unusually active hurricane season.
Rising ocean temperatures because of climate change - Warm water is fuel for tropical systems, and there will be plenty of warm water for fledgling systems to tap into and strengthen. The Atlantic water temperatures observed in March were around or even warmer than they were in March ahead of the blockbuster 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons.
"Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region (for hurricanes)," DaSilva said.
Unusually warm water could also help to spawn tropical systems in November when the Atlantic hurricane season is winding down.
The change from El Nin?o to La Nin?a - La Ni?a results in less disruptive winds, known as wind shear, over most of the Atlantic basin. The faster the transition to La Ni?a occurs, the more active the hurricane season is likely to be.
La Ni?a was present during the 2020, 2021 and 2022 Atlantic hurricane seasons, all of which featured near or well above the historical average of 14 named storms. The 2020 season is tied with the 2005 season for the highest number of named storms, with 30.
Accuweather
Embedded content: https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/tropics_during_la_nina.jpg?w=632
More: La Ni?a is coming: It could worsen hurricane season and affect US weather, forecasters say
How will the hurricane season affect NC?
DaSilva said that the Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts in the 2024 season.
While it's impossible to say at this point exactly what the season holds for the N.C. coast, AccuWeather said that Hurricane Matthew, the Category 5 hurricane that was the most powerful storm of the 2016 season, is an "analog" for this year. Matthew took place during La Ni?a, similar to what is predicted to happen this year.
The Narional Weather Service website says that Matthew was directly responsible for 25 deaths in N.C. plus four in S.C., all but one of which were caused by the massive flooding the states saw. Damage in the U.S. was estimated by the National Center for Environmental Information at $10.3 billion, and the name "Matthew" was retired from the list of Atlantic hurricane names after the destruction it wreaked across the Caribbean islands and the Southeastern United States.
More: Heat records keep puzzling, alarming scientists in 2024. Here's what to know.
Cheryl McCloud, USA Today Florida, contributed to this report.
Iris Seaton is the trending news reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Hurricane season 2024: NC coast at risk, record number possible
