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Yahoo News

Arizona election 2024: Current polls, history and why the state's results matter

Updated
1 min read
A graphic with photos of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris reads: Arizona, 11 Electoral College votes. 2020 result: Biden won 0.31%, the second smallest margin of any state. It has been 76 years since Democrats have won Arizona in consecutive elections.
Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photos: Spencer Platt/Getty Images, Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
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?? Key races

In addition to the presidential contest, Arizona is home to a key downballot race between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake that may help decide control of the U.S. Senate.

Gallego, who represents Arizona’s Third Congressional District in the U.S. House, was consistently outpolling Lake, the former Republican gubernatorial candidate, in the race to replace outgoing independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

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Yahoo News has more coverage of the Arizona downballot races here.

?? Past election history

The results of the last three presidential elections in Arizona are as follows:

  • 2020: Joe Biden (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) by 0.31%.

  • 2016: Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) by 3.50%.

  • 2012: Mitt Romney (R) defeated Barack Obama (D) by 9.06%.

?? Which way the state was trending

Over the past several presidential elections, Arizona was lurching to the left. In 2012, Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, won the state by more than 9 percentage points. In 2016, Trump won Arizona by less than 4 points, the smallest margin of victory for any Republican who won the presidency since 1912, when the state was founded. In 2020, Joe Biden managed to flip Arizona, winning by just 0.31%, or 10,457 votes.

?? Why it matters

Biden’s win in Arizona in 2020 was propelled by a high turnout among Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters — a voting bloc that could prove pivotal again in 2024.

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