Is Arizona an ‘emerging problem’ for Donald Trump? He could return to the state soon

Arizona used to be a near-foregone conclusion for Donald Trump. Now it’s an “emerging problem," according to one longtime political observer.

Vice President Kamala Harris is rising in battleground state polls and drew thousands to a political rally in Glendale last week, establishing herself as a more formidable Trump opponent than President Joe Biden was.

Now, Republicans wonder whether Trump has been present in Arizona enough and say he is losing ground to Democrats.

“They're on their back foot,” said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime GOP strategist who left the party during the Trump era. “Arizona clearly is an emerging problem for him.”

Trump could address some of those criticisms in person as soon as next week. The former president is weighing a trip to Arizona’s southern border in Cochise County, where the U.S.-Mexico border runs for 84 miles. The region is home to two ports of entry: Douglas and Naco.

Sierra Vista Mayor Clea McCaa and Sierra Vista police Chief Chris Hiser will be present for Trump’s visit, a city spokesperson said on Wednesday. It is not clear what day Trump might visit the county, and the former president’s campaign declined to answer questions about his travel plans.

Arizona is a top campaign destination for presidential candidates because it is among a handful of states that could decide the outcome of the 2024 election. Trump lost here by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020, the smallest margin of any state on the electoral map. It was the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won in Arizona since 1996 and only the second time since 1948.

Democrats had all but given up on Arizona’s presidential prospects at the beginning of the summer, but the well-choreographed swap at the top of the ticket has injected new enthusiasm in the party.

Harris held smaller Arizona events during her tenure as vice president but drew a crowd of 15,000 to Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale last week for her first Arizona appearance as the Democratic nominee. Trump addressed some 4,000 people at a rally at Dream City Church in Phoenix in June.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report just changed its Arizona presidential election forecast from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” and a survey from Coughlin’s polling firm HighGround found Harris narrowly leading Trump in Arizona 44% to 42% among likely voters. (The HighGround survey was conducted July 30-Aug. 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points).

“I didn't think Democrats thought they could win out here,” Coughlin said. “Now they're like, oh ... we might be able to win this thing.”

The Trump campaign has put more resources into Arizona lately, dispatching vice presidential nominee JD Vance for a rally and border tour in Cochise County, the same region Trump is considering visiting.

Trump and his allies are also pouring millions into TV ad buys to attack Harris on immigration and the economy. MAGA Inc. just announced a $100 million TV ad buy across the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, POLITICO reported.

“It's hard to believe until you see it with your own eyes, just how bad the policies of the Kamala Harris administration have been when it comes to the southern border,” Vance said during his trip to the border wall, making sure to attack Harris on one of her most vulnerable issues.

Trump has veered off track with his messaging, though, according to one of his Arizona backers. Trump “never stops speaking” and should stick to a campaign message that can broaden his coalition, said Arizona Republican Alberto Gutier, who served as a Trump elector in 2016.

“Trump can still win it, but he’s gonna have to solidify what's left of the party,” Gutier said, pointing to struggles Arizona Republicans have faced in recent years. The GOP lost three Senate races, the Governor’s Office, the Secretary of State’s Office and the Attorney General’s Office during the Trump era.

For its part, the Trump campaign said his momentum is growing and attacked Harris on the economy and the border.

“Everything — from rent, groceries to gas — is far more expensive under Kamala Harris. Under her failed leadership, Arizona families have experienced record high prices and an unruly border crisis; our communities have been less safe, and deadly drugs are killing our youth. President Trump offers Arizona voters hope through his agenda to make Arizona safe and affordable again," Arizona’s Team Trump spokesperson Halee Dobbins said in a written statement.

"The momentum is only growing for Trump ahead of November as voters grow sick and tired of Harris’ lies and unlivable policies; Arizona won’t buy her gaslighting this fall."But Gutier said he’s worried that Harris appeals to a noteworthy voting group that could help sway the election result.

“Here in Arizona, young people, a lot of people who have not been involved in politics, see her as a savior,” Gutier said. “Good luck, America.”

Still, Trump just got a boost from a top Arizona Republican whom he butted heads with in the past. Former GOP Gov. Doug Ducey endorsed Trump on Tuesday, putting his “differences aside” to back the former president who once said Ducey was betraying Arizona by certifying the 2020 election results.

“Differences aside, there is too much on the line and only a Republican in the White House and a majority in the House and US Senate can ensure it,” Ducey said, throwing his support behind Trump and GOP Senate nominee Kari Lake.

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He also received praise from the Arizona Republican Party chair for taking questions from billionaire Trump booster Elon Musk during a lengthy livestream on Musk’s social media site. Harris has taken few questions from reporters since she became her party’s nominee.

“The conversation between President Trump and Elon Musk on X Spaces again demonstrated President Trump's commitment to transparency and direct engagement with the American people,” Arizona GOP Chair Gina Swoboda said in a written statement. “In stark contrast, Kamala Harris has been noticeably absent from the media for over three weeks.”

When it comes to campaigning offline, Trump has a lighter footprint than the Harris operation in Arizona. The Trump campaign has eight offices here, compared with Harris’ 12, though it says it has plans to open more ahead of the election. Trump offices are in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Casa Grande, Sun City, Chandler, Mesa, Tucson and Kingman. The campaign also holds “Super Saturday” training sessions for volunteers around the state.

“The Harris-Walz campaign has seen a surge of momentum as voters are responding to Vice President Harris’ fight to bring down costs, secure the border, and make sure Arizona families don’t just get by but get ahead,” Harris spokesperson Jacques Petit said in a written statement.

“Meanwhile Donald Trump and JD Vance have almost no presence in the state and are running on a toxic Project 2025 agenda to ban abortion in Arizona and slash Medicare and Social Security, which is why Republicans, Democrats and Independents are coming together to defeat them and deliver the White House for Vice President Harris and Governor Walz.”

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Is Arizona an ‘emerging problem’ for Donald Trump? What to know