These Arizona lawmakers are most likely to lose their jobs over the abortion ban
Now that we are living in the year of our Lord 1864, I picture Sen. Shawnna Bolick breathing into a paper bag.
Republicans already were looking at a fist fight to hang onto their one-vote control in each chamber of the Arizona Legislature. But with this week’s revival of a near total ban on abortion?
Well, let’s just say the Arizona Republican Party ought to lay in a supply of paper bags.
Here are the Republicans who should be hyperventilating about now.
1: Sen. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix
Bolick was appointed to her seat last year and already had a fight on her hands as she faces a challenge from Democratic Rep. Judy Schwiebert in this competitive northwest Valley race.
That might explain why Bolick was so quick to bail on her staunchly pro-life principles on Tuesday and call for a repeal of the 1864 abortion ban.
“Considering today’s Arizona Supreme Court ruling to uphold Arizona's 1864 territorial abortion ban, it is time for my legislative colleagues to find common ground of common sense,” she said in a social media post just hours after the court ruling was released. “The first step is to repeal the territorial law.”
What Bolick didn’t mention was that she supported that territorial abortion ban just two years ago.
Bolick was in the House when the 15-week abortion law passed on a party line vote in March 2022, just two months before Roe v. Wade was overturned. In that new 15-week law, Republicans took pains to note: “This act does not repeal, by implication or otherwise, section 13-3603.”
ARS 13-3603 is the 1864 law that mandates a two- to five-year prison sentence for any doctor who performs an abortion unless his patient is dying.
Add in the fact that Bolick’s husband, Clint, was among the four Supreme Court justices who revived the 160-year-old law, and Bolick is looking like a short-termer.
2: Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix
Gress, from another of the state’s most competitive districts, was one of the first Republicans to decry the Supreme Court’s ruling. He tried to engineer a quick repeal of the 19th century ban on Wednesday, only to be blocked by his fellow Republicans who ran like the wind to quickly adjourn.
Gress wasn’t in the Legislature in 2022 when his fellow Republicans voted to keep that territorial law on the books.
But in 2023, he introduced a series of bills that appeared to be a back-door effort to create a fetal personhood law, effectively outlawing abortion.
Gress denies it, saying the bills — allowing child support and tax credits during pregnancy, enhancing domestic violence penalties for assaulting a pregnant woman and authorizing pregnant drivers to use the HOV lane — were all about protecting women.
Look for Gress to continue pushing his fellow Republicans to repeal the 19th century law, as if his political life now depends on it.
Because it probably does.
3: Rep. Justin Wilmeth, R-Phoenix
Like Bolick, Wilmeth represents a swing district in the northwest Valley. And like Bolick, he voted for that 2022 abortion bill that kept the 1864 law on the books.
He may have caught a break given that Democrats curiously put up only one challenger in the race for two House seats. But there also is an independent in the mix.
Wilmeth has been silent since Tuesday’s ruling but on his website, Wilmeth says that he has “Voted Pro-Life 100% Of The Time.”
In an election where angry voters turn out in droves to enshrine abortion into the state constitution, Wilmeth may goeth.
4: Rep. Julie Willoughby, R-Chandler
Willoughby was appointed last year upon the ouster of Rep. Liz Harris. But this Chandler district swings both ways. (Not like that, get your mind out of the gutter.)
She might be helped by the fact that the other Republican in the race is former Rep. Jeff Weninger, who like all Republicans that year, voted to preserve the 1864 law.
5: Sen. J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler
Mesnard also voted to leave that 1864 territorial law on the books in 2022. Now he’s running for reelection in the most competitive legislative district in the state.
Add in a flock motivated voters pouring out to protect abortion rights via the Arizona Abortion Access Act and Mesnard could have have trouble.
6: Sen. T.J. Shope of Coolidge
Like Bolick and Gress, Shope was quick to call for a repeal of the 1864 law.
“Today’s Arizona Supreme Court decision reinstating an Arizona Territorial-era ban on all abortions from more than 150 years ago is disappointing to say the least and has ignored our legislative intent,” he wrote.
But like Bolick, he failed to mention his own role in dragging us back a couple of centuries.
The Great GOP Abortion Retreat: Is in full effect
Shope is going to have to explain why he voted for a 15-week ban that expressly left that territorial abortion ban on the books. And why, once Roe v. Wade was overturned, he didn’t make a move to strike it from the books.
That is, if the goal was always to have a ban at 15 weeks.
7: Teresa Martinez, R-Casa Grande
Martinez, too, voted to preserve that 1864 law in 2022, and like all Republicans who live in swing districts, she’s got some serious spinning to do.
Like every other House Republican (except Gress) she voted to adjourn on Wednesday rather than face a vote on repealing the 1864 law.
“We do not want to repeal the pre-Roe law without first having a conversation about it,” she said in a floor speech.
Suddenly, we’re saddled with a 19th century law that mandates prison sentences for any doctor who performs an abortion on anyone other than a dying woman.
What, I wonder, is there to discuss?
8-10: Sen. Justine Wadsack, and Reps. Rachel Jones and Cory McCarr, R-Tucson
None of this trio of hard right lawmakers were in the Legislature in 2022 when Republicans signaled their intent to keep the territorial abortion ban in place. But they didn’t win their races by much later that year.
This year, their district should be considered competitive, what with us now living in the 19th century.
All three are members of the Arizona Freedom Caucus, which supports the 1864 abortion ban. Both Jones and McCarr have signaled their approval, while Wadsack seems to be lying low.
Democrats only put up one candidate for the two House seats, so it’s likely that at least one of the trio will be back. (There’s also another Republican in the race.)
Other candidates who may be biting their nails
Rep. Kevin Payne, R-Peoria, who is running for the open Senate seat in what now, given 19th century standards, must be considered a competitive district. He, too, voted in 2022 to keep that 1864 law on the books.
Rep. Michele Pena, R-Yuma, already was vulnerable given that she’s a Republican representing a heavily Democratic district. It won’t help that GOP party activists in the district censured her last year, declaring her unfit to serve after her vote to expel now-ex Rep. Liz Harris. She hasn’t said anything publicly about the 1864 ban.
Reach Roberts at [email protected]. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) at @LaurieRoberts.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona abortion ban could force these Republican lawmakers out
