Arizona may be one vote away from a repeal of its Civil War-era abortion law

The Arizona Senate is poised Wednesday to cap three weeks of roiling debate over abortion as lawmakers consider repeal of a near-total abortion ban dating from 1864.

Indications are the closely divided Republican-controlled Senate will approve the repeal with not a vote to spare.

Arizona has been center stage of the national abortion debate ever since an April 9 state Supreme Court ruling upheld the 1864 law. It bans abortions in all cases, except to save the life of the mother, and imposes prison terms for doctors or others who aid in an abortion.

The ruling has divided the GOP majority at the statehouse, with a handful of Republicans in both chambers willing to join with Democrats to repeal a 160-year-old law that they feel is unreasonable and inappropriate for current times.

It's also galvanized anti-abortion advocates and propelled Republicans to explore other abortion policies. GOP lawmakers are toying with the idea of presenting ballot measures that could compete with an expected citizen initiative that would allow abortions up until the point of viability, generally viewed as 22 to 24 weeks.

How can the Arizona Senate pass abortion ban repeal?

The Senate's approach to the abortion debate has been generally calm, in contrast to the drama in the House of Representatives.

Two weeks ago, the Senate moved ahead with a repeal law identical to the one in the House. On Wednesday, senators are expected to swap their Senate Bill 1734 for the House version and hold an official vote.

GOP Sens. Shawnna Bolick of Phoenix and T.J. Shope of Coolidge are expected to join with all 14 Democrats to pass the measure with the needed 16 votes.

Supporters of the abortion ban are working to mobilize opposition to a repeal.

Sen. Wendy Rogers, R-Flagstaff, is urging her followers on social media to contact their senators to vote against the repeal.

Students for Life Action said they'll be at the Capitol at 8 a.m. Wednesday to rally lawmakers to "hold the line" on abortion policy and stick with the high court's decision.

“Arizona’s Senate could make history in the worst possible fashion," Chanel Prunier, the organization's vice president of public affairs, said in a statement. "If Republican leadership and members go along with this Democrat-led repeal, Arizona will become the first state led by Republicans to strip protections from already-protected preborn babies.”

If the bill passes the Senate, it goes to Gov. Katie Hobbs, who has promised to sign it when it gets to her desk. Lawmakers must send bills to the governor promptly "and without further delay," according to a 2009 state Supreme Court ruling.

When will the repeal go into effect?

Once signed, bills generally don't become law instantly. It takes 90 days after the Legislature finishes its work for the year for most new laws to be enforceable.

It's unclear when the Legislature will get to the finish line, but 90 days after adjournment would likely fall in late summer. When that happens, the prevailing Arizona law would ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for the life of the mother.

In the likely interim between passage of the repeal bill and its taking effect, the 1864 law will have the force of law as of June 8, according to a statement from Attorney General Kris Mayes in the aftermath of the ruling. She subsequently said legal maneuvering pushed that date back to June 27, though other parties in the initial lawsuit dispute that.

On Tuesday, Mayes asked the state Supreme Court for a 90-day stay on when the court's decision on the 1864 law becomes final. Her motion is meant to buy time as she decides whether to ask the U.S. Supreme Court to review the state high court's decision.

If Mayes’ motion for a stay is granted, the effective date of the law could be even later than June 27.

This could create an on-again, off-again scenario in which Arizona's abortion policy in the second half of the year could fluctuate between virtually no abortions to one that allows abortions up until 15 weeks.

Mayes has said she would not prosecute any abortion cases, and Hobbs signed an executive order earlier this year that takes away county attorneys' power to enforce abortion laws.

Things could change yet again if a citizen initiative, called Arizona for Abortion Access, qualifies for the November ballot and wins voter approval. If that were to happen, Arizona would permit abortions up until viability, with exceptions that would allow later-stage abortions.

Reach the reporter at [email protected] or at 602-228-7566 and follow her on Threads as well as on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter @maryjpitzl.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona's Legislature poised to repeal controversial abortion ban