Arizona Republicans are more disillusioned than Dems, a new study finds. It could be pivotal in November
With many voters unhappy with their choices this election year, a new analysis of Arizona voting data shows Republicans are more disillusioned than Democrats.
It could have consequences in the upcoming primary and general elections. In 2020 and 2022, voters who generally support Republican candidates turned away from high-profile candidates who aligned themselves with Donald Trump, as well as Trump himself. Some didn't vote in those races, while others went a step further and voted for their Democratic opponents.
The trend is likely to continue in 2024, according to a report from a group of election analysts called The Audit Guys.
"Growing disaffection and surging disgust add up to a growing problem for national Republicans as Trump and his ideological allies become the face of the GOP," author Larry Moore states in "Things Fall Apart: Observations on a Divided Electorate."
Moore, along with two partners steeped in data analysis, dubbed themselves The Audit Guys in 2021. That's when they picked apart the methodology the Cyber Ninjas used to do a review of the ballots cast in Maricopa County's 2020 presidential election. They found the Ninjas' work could not be validated or replicated.
Now, they've turned their attention to voter behavior, analyzing data from the 2020 and 2022 elections as well as the presidential primaries through early March.
Moore's takeaway: "There’s a lot more persuadable voters going into 2024," he said in a recent interview.
Disaffection vs. disgust
He reached that conclusion after creating what he called a "voter disaffection index" as well as a "voter disgust index."
The disaffection index shows the movement of voters who support one party's candidates down the ticket opting against voting for the standard bearer at the top of the ticket.
In 2020, the analysis found 6.2% of Republican-leaning voters did not vote for Donald Trump. In 2022, the index increased slightly to 7.1%, using the races for U.S. Senate, governor, secretary of state and attorney general as a barometer.
More telling was the increase in the "disgust index" measuring the proportion of disaffected voters who crossed party lines at the top of the ticket.
In 2020, 65% of the disaffected Republican-leaning voters didn't just skip the presidential race — the analysis found they voted for Joe Biden. By 2022, using the same four races cited above, the index jumped to 86%. That resulted in narrow victories for Democratic candidates Katie Hobbs and Attorney General Kris Mayes, and healthy 5-point margins for Mark Kelly and Adrian Fontes.
A different story for Democratic-leaning voters
Similar measurements for voters who typically back Democratic candidates went the other direction: Disaffection with top-of-the-ballot Democratic candidates decreased from 3.7% to less than 0.9% between 2020 and 2022.
Meanwhile, "disgust" with top-tier Democratic candidates among this small population of disaffected voters showed a slight uptick in 2022, with 58% casting ballots for Republicans, compared to 56% in 2020.
These cross-party defections are what gave Biden his victory in 2020, the analysis found and led to Democrats sweeping the top of the statewide ballot in 2022.
The study shows that Hobbs got 4.2% of her vote for governor from voters who supported GOP candidates down the ballot. In contrast, Hobbs' Republican opponent, Kari Lake, drew only 0.8% of her vote from voters who otherwise were voting for Democrats.
The big tent is shrinking
The overall findings didn't surprise pollster Paul Bentz.
"We’ve seen a growing rejection of MAGA candidates," said Bentz, who works with the political consulting firm HighGround.
That's due not just to the Republican Party losing support from some of its voters, Bentz said, but also to Democrats doing a better job of appealing to independent voters. The GOP has shown no desire to grow its electorate, he said.
He found one issue with the analysis: The races it analyzed didn't have third-party options. Most of the contests were head-to-head Democrat vs. Republican.
"There was no third-party candidate that could have siphoned off votes," he said.
That may not be the same this year, although the No Labels Party just dropped its effort to field a presidential candidate who could compete against Biden and Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running as an independent, and polls have shown he has areas of appeal, especially among younger voters.
Moore dismissed the third-party option as having an insignificant effect on this year's vote.
"The framing of this election is a binary choice," he said, noting he views the coming presidential race as a referendum on the future of democracy.
“We’re taking a democracy slant right now," he said. "If that looks like we’re being partisan, so be it.”
Democracy in Doubt: White House phone calls, baseless fraud charges: The origins of the Arizona election review
What the presidential primaries say
Moore tacked on a postscript to the study after his team did a quick look at the results of the presidential primaries through mid-March.
In primaries where only registered Republicans could vote, Nikki Haley drew 21.3% of the vote, even as it was clear Trump would be the nominee. After she suspended her campaign in early March, Haley still drew 20.2% of the vote, which many interpreted as an anti-Trump vote.
In Arizona's March 19 election, Haley got 17.7% of the statewide vote and 19.8% in Maricopa County.
Moore interpreted that as bad news for the former president, as voters showed a preference for someone other than Trump.
But Biden also turned off Arizona Democrats in his primary race. Eleven percent of voters opted for someone other than the president when they voted in March.
Reach the reporter at [email protected] or at 602-228-7566 and follow her on Threads as well as on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter @maryjpitzl.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona GOP more disillusioned than Dems, new study finds