Atlantic hurricane forecast says Patty could form next week

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, now in its next-to-last month, appears to be in a lull this week. And folks are wondering: Is the season, which featured such cataclysmic hurricanes as Helene and Milton, over?

As of Tuesday, the Atlantic basin remains free of any hurricanes or tropical storms, and no systems were expected to form within the next seven days, the National Hurricane Center said.

But AccuWeather forecasters say there is a chance for development of a tropical depression or storm next week. The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would be Patty and Rafael.

A brewing storm?

"We suspect there will be another attempt for a tropical depression or tropical storm to brew in the western Caribbean during the middle to the latter part of next week," said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist.

Record warm waters that have helped spur tropical development throughout the season continue, especially in the Caribbean Sea. Combine that with low chances for wind shear and you have conditions that support development of tropical cyclones.

"A large storm or gyre may again form near the western Caribbean, which, when factoring in warm waters and low wind shear, could foster new but slow development," AccuWeather said.

There is some good news should a storm develop and move toward the U.S.: "Long-range models keep very hostile wind shear across Florida and along continental U.S. waters into the first week of November, which would offer protection from any mischief that may come over the next few weeks," WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Lowry said.

But it's still early to be talking about the path of a possible storm.

"The track of any new tropical feature in the Caribbean will depend on exactly where it forms and the overall strength and movement of non-tropical features farther to the north over the United States and the western Atlantic," AccuWeather said.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season? Are November storms rare?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. November is usually a quiet month for hurricanes as the season winds down.

Since official Atlantic tropical cyclone recordkeeping began 174 years ago, nearly 600 tropical storms or hurricanes have struck the mainland U.S. shoreline. Of those landfalling storms, only about a dozen struck in November, Lowry said.

"Named storms affecting us here in the states in November only happen about once every 15 years on average," he said. "They’re an uncommon occurrence, but when they do strike, they almost invariably strike Florida."

Forecasters keep monitoring tropical waves. Why?

Forecasters will be keeping watch on tropical waves in the Caribbean over the next week and beyond. According to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, 85% of all tropical storms can trace their origins to tropical waves. 

At its simplest, a tropical wave is an area of clouds and thunderstorms that typically moves east to west. It's also known as an easterly wave, according to the National Weather Service.

If conditions are right, a tropical wave can develop into a tropical depression or named tropical storm, and then a hurricane.

Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network ? Florida

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Atlantic hurricane forecast says Patty could form next week