Aurora lovers, rejoice. 2024 could be a great year for northern lights, due to solar maximum
Northern lights lovers, 2024 might be your year.
The solar forces that produce the gorgeous sky phenomena are predicted to peak next year, and at a more intense level than previously thought, forecasters from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center announced Friday.
"Solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than that predicted by an expert panel in December 2019," the prediction center said in a statement. "The updated prediction now calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak between January and October of 2024."
But with the good news about the potential uptick in aurora sightings next year also comes the worrisome side of heightened solar activity: It can interfere with the electrical grid, degrade GPS signals, increase orbital drag on satellites, and pose radiation hazards to airline crews and astronauts, the prediction center warned.
Stronger solar cycles produce more solar storms with greater intensity and therefore pose a larger hazard for these critical technologies and services, the prediction center said.
What are solar cycles? What is the solar maximum?
Solar cycles track the activity level of the sun, our nearest star. A cycle is traditionally measured by the rise and fall in the number of sunspots, but it also coincides with increases in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, radio emissions and other forms of space weather.
"The sun has an 11-year cycle where it goes through maximum and minimum," Shannon Schmoll, the director of the Abrams Planetarium at Michigan State University told USA TODAY in a recent interview. "This results in the number of sunspots seen on the sun. Sunspots result from areas of the sun that have stronger magnetic fields."
The number of sunspots on the sun's surface changes on a fairly regular cycle, which scientists refer to as the sun's 11-year cycle variation. Sunspot activity, and hence auroral activity, tends to peak every 11 years.
Scientists use sunspots to track solar cycle progress, NASA said. The dark blotches on the sun are associated with solar activity, often as the origins for giant explosions – such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections – that can spew light, energy and solar material into space.
"This material and radiation is what interacts with the Earth, resulting in aurora," Schmoll said.
A stronger cycle
Forecasters now say the next solar cycle (25) will be stronger than the previous one (24). A 2019 forecast predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would be weak, peaking in July 2025.
Solar Cycle 24 was the weakest cycle in 100 years. NOAA’s new prediction, though larger than the panel prediction and larger than Solar Cycle 24, would still make the strength of Solar Cycle 25 below average.
How will this affect the solar eclipse?
It is also good news for eclipse viewers, NOAA said: It means that the total solar eclipse that will be visible from the U.S. on April 8, 2024 will occur near the cycle maximum. "The sun may put on a good show, with a particularly impressive corona – the extended outer atmosphere of the sun that is only visible during an eclipse."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Northern lights aurora forecast good for 2024 due to solar maximum
