Beto still trails Cruz in Texas Senate polling

A new poll has found that Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s long-shot quest to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, which has generated so much enthusiasm and financial support from national Democrats, has stalled well short of success.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Cruz leading O’Rourke 54 percent to 45 percent among likely Texas voters — roughly unchanged since a Quinnipiac poll taken in September.

The poll comes after at least $1 million in attack ads targeting the Democratic congressman have aired over the last several weeks across Texas. That includes campaign spots launched by Cruz’s reelection campaign attacking O’Rourke for being pro-immigration and supporting the rights of National Football League players to kneel during the playing of the national anthem.

More recently, Cruz has accused O’Rourke of being anti-law enforcement, seizing on comments he made at a recent town hall during which he decried racial profiling, police shootings of people of color and discriminatory sentencing. O’Rourke described those practices collectively as the “new Jim Crow” — but appeared to be referring to the justice system, not police officers personally. But Cruz cites the line in a new ad, in which he includes a clip of a Dallas-area sheriff calling O’Rourke’s rhetoric “divisive” and “dangerous.”

In response, O’Rourke, who has refused to go negative against Cruz, launched a statewide ad in which he called on Texans to look past the attacks. “You may have seen some of these negative attack ads seeking to scare you about what we’re trying to do for the state and our country at this critical moment,” he says in the ad. “Now we can be defined by our fears, or we can be known by our ambitions. I’m confident that when we see each other not as Democrats or Republicans but as Texans, as Americans, as human beings, there’s no stopping us.”

But the Quinnipiac poll is likely to put pressure on O’Rourke to be more aggressive in the race — something his supporters pointedly push him to do at many of his town halls. According to Quinnipiac, O’Rourke’s favorable ratings are dropping among likely Texas voters as they learn more about him. Forty-seven percent of likely voters polled say they view O’Rourke unfavorably — a 5-point increase since September — compared to 45 percent who hold a favorable view. By comparison, 52 percent of those polled view Cruz favorably, compared to 44 percent who don’t — a striking advantage for a senator who has been criticized by even members of his own party for not being very likable.

But O’Rourke’s campaign is still hopeful. The El Paso congressman, who is vying to be the first Democrat elected in Texas statewide since 1994, has built his campaign around targeting so-called “nonvoters” — including people in small town across Texas who have not traditionally turned out to cast a ballot. They argue that support may not necessarily be reflected in the polls. But whether O’Rourke actually has an effective ground game to turn out those people remains the great unknown of the race.

Still, there are troubling signs for O’Rourke in the Quinnipiac poll. He’s losing by 20 points to Cruz among white voters with college degrees and by 25 points among white women. Among Hispanic voters, O’Rourke leads by 24 points — a healthy margin but one his campaign had hoped would be higher.

Any path to victory in strongly conservative Texas will require O’Rourke to peel off some Republican support from Cruz, a tea party stalwart who has had trouble with the moderate wing of the party. But the poll found Republicans mostly united behind Cruz. Quinnipiac found 94 percent of Republicans are backing the incumbent. The other 6 percent say they’ll vote for O’Rourke.

But the Cruz camp is still worried about Republican voters staying home on Election Day — particularly in rural areas, where O’Rourke has campaigned heavily — and he’s turned to President Trump for help. Last week, he campaigned with the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr.; Mike Pence rallied on his behalf earlier this week, and the president has promised to campaign for his former rival sometime this month in “the biggest stadium in Texas we can find.”

O’Rourke and Cruz are scheduled to meet for their final debate on Oct. 16. Early voting in the state begins Oct. 22.

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