Is a Biden-Trump presidential election rematch the best we can do in 2024? Apparently so

For a nation that doesn’t seem to want a rematch of Joe Biden or Donald Trump running for office, we have a funny way of showing it.

With March 5’s Super Tuesday in the rearview mirror and another election Tuesday confirming what we already knew to be the result, we’re left to decide between two elderly gentlemen who can’t control what comes out of their mouths for different reasons.

So what does the tale of the tape look like in the rematch?

Biden will have to answer for inflation and immigration

Let’s take Biden first.

His campaign was, and must be, making the election about Trump. Just talk to your liberal friends about their support of Biden and see how many seconds it takes before they start talking about Trump.

For Democrats there is no better rallying call than Trump being the Republican nominee.

A referendum on Trump turned out to be a record-setting vote in 2020, and I would be shocked if we don’t see similar numbers in 2024.

Trying to run on individual issues doesn’t make much sense for Biden.

The economy is the most important issue, and it isn’t particularly close. While Biden has a positive economic argument on items like GDP growth, investment, and unemployment, his message isn’t breaking through because of inflation.

The rate has slowed thanks to the Federal Reserve Board’s higher interest rates, but that doesn’t do anything to reduce the price spikes we’ve all experienced.

“Well, I think most Americans know that prices are not likely to fall,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin told ABC News at the end of January. “It’s not the Fed’s objective to try to push the level of prices back to where they were.”

When Biden officials are effectively conceding high prices, Biden’s campaign on the economy is stuck in the mud.

Immigration is another significant issue on voters’ minds. Border security has crept from a parochial Republican issue to the single most important issue behind the economy. According to Gallup polling, the number of voters citing immigration as the top concern for the President and Congress to address has increased more than 300% from August 2023 to February of 2024.

Biden made an elaborate show of reversing Trump’s immigration policies, and immigration numbers went through the roof. He can blame Trump for killing comprehensive immigration reform, but that’s not going to change the perception that Biden caused the spike in illegal immigration and hasn’t been able to competently manage the issue.

Voters also see government and poor leadership as an increasingly significant issue, but neither Biden nor Trump appears particularly trusted to remedy those challenges.

Trump’s demand for loyalty and criminal charges are his Achilles’ heel

Trump’s path to victory is hammering away at immigration and inflation while avoiding self-inflicted harm. The best gift his campaign ever received was the death of his constant tweets. Trump’s Truth Social rants are every bit as ridiculous, but most folks simply don’t encounter them.

Trump doesn’t have a Democrat problem. They hate him, and they’ll show up to vote against him provided that Biden still has a pulse. That’s not enough to beat the former president.

Trump’s electoral math gets complicated with Republicans and independent voters. While Trump again cleared the primary field, he operated as the de facto incumbent. He should have won. Yet we’re seeing roughly 20 to 30 percent of Republican primary voters in states like Michigan, Virginia, and North Carolina support someone other than Trump.

Trump and many of his supporters have burned President Ronald Reagan’s “big tent” Republican Party to the ground.

“We’re getting rid of the Romney’s of the world,” Trump recently crowed. “We want to get Romneys and those out.”

Trump has repeatedly pointed out that those voters and their preferred candidates have no home in the Republican Party.

Just assume for a minute that former Republican contender Nikki Haley represents a more traditional conservative Republican like Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah. That contingent remains a material part of the Republican Party. A small percentage of those Republicans may vote for Biden, but the more likely challenge for Trump is that they either stay home or write in a candidate.

Trump must actively unite the Republican Party, or he’s toast. Even if we assume that more independents and Democrats are voting in GOP primaries, having even 10% or 15% of the GOP effectively sitting out the November election would devastate Trump’s chances.

While a criminal conviction also definitively derails Trump’s candidacy, the likelihood of that happening before Election Day seems increasingly unlikely.

RFK Jr. could still be a spoiler in 2024, but for whom?

We also need to keep in mind that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. doesn’t seem to be going anywhere and is polling around 20% in the general election. That’s a dynamic that wasn’t present in 2020, and it will undoubtedly have an impact on the race.

To be clear, that impact went from helping Biden at the end of 2023 to helping Trump early in 2024, so what happens several months from now is anyone’s guess.

The bottom line is that this is going to be a competitive race and both of the major party candidates are deeply flawed with vulnerabilities that could wreck their campaigns at any moment.

The truly shocking takeaway from Super Tuesday on March 5 and the March 12 primary elections is that neither major party could figure out how to do anything but a rematch that feels like a Geritol advertisement.

My guess is that we’ll be hearing a lot less from Biden and a lot more from Trump as the campaign moves forward.

Both camps seem to believe that’s their path to success.

We should consider whether this is the best we can do as a nation.

USA TODAY Network Tennessee Columnist Cameron Smith is a Memphis-born, Brentwood-raised recovering political attorney who worked for conservative Republicans. He and his wife Justine are raising three boys in Nolensville, Tennessee. Direct outrage or agreement to [email protected] or @DCameronSmith on X, formerly known as Twitter. Agree or disagree? Send a letter to the editor to [email protected].

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Election 2024: Biden, Trump matchup feels like repeating 2020