Bucks County projected to shrink in population. What it means for decades to come

Bucks County will lose population over the next 30 years while other counties surrounding Philadelphia are projected to grow.

Bucks County could see its ranks shrink by 7.5%, or 48,596 people, according to a report by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania.

An October report from the center and the Pennsylvania State Data Center, of Penn State University, estimates most counties will see a drop in population through 2050 despite the state growing from 12.9 million to 13.1 million over the same period.

The report points to an aging Baby Boomer population and a stagnant birth rate as major drivers for declines in most counties across the state. It’s a trend that the center’s Executive Director Kyle Kopko said has been affecting rural counties for years.

However, Bucks is only one of three urban counties the study projects will shrink over the coming 30 years, including Beaver and Westmoreland counties in the western part of Pennsylvania.

“Really the main driver (in Bucks) overall is going to be births and deaths being out of balance. And that's not a new trend by any means. … It's something we've seen in our rural communities for many, many years and now it's starting to hit some of our urban areas as well,” Kopko said.

The center defines a county as rural or urban by whether it has more or fewer than 291 people per square mile, respectively.

At approximately 622 square miles and an estimated 646,112 people in 2020, Bucks County has about 1,038 people per square mile.

The changing demographics are going to mean myriad challenges that Kopko said require counties to begin planning sooner rather than later.

Bucks County officials are expected to unveil their 20-year comprehensive plan next month, County Commissioner Vice Chairman Bob Harvie said.

When populations change

Whether growing or shrinking, a shift in population is going to have a ripple effect on infrastructure, economics and just about every aspect of a community.

A group of older residents going into retirement could mean a shrinking workforce, which could mean planning for amenities to attract younger workers who might be starting a family. At the same time, those retirees and seniors will have different needs than young families looking for a starter home.

“A changing population affects virtually all areas of public policy,” Kopko said. "Every community is going to need to decide this for themselves. My biggest concern is that communities will not take account of these trends and then they're going to be caught off guard.”

Bucks County is like most of the roughly 40 other counties that will likely see a population decline. More than half the population now is approaching or past retirement age and birth rates are below the 2.1 children for every woman fertility rates that researchers say spurs natural growth.

The fertility rate in Bucks is about 1.61, but that rate is also on par with Pennsylvania’s 1.67 rate overall. Only Potter, Juniata and Mifflin counties — all rural areas — have fertility rates greater than 2.1 and only Juniata and Mifflin counties are expected to grow in population by 2050.

Kopko added that, very broadly speaking, urban counties like Bucks tend to be in a better position to adjust to the trending issues.

“Urban communities tend to have greater infrastructure and more amenities relative to our rural communities. They have more nonprofit organizations, philanthropic organizations, health care institutions, mass transit, etcetera,” Kopko said.

How does Bucks County adapt?

As the county looks ahead to the next two decades, Harvie said housing is going to play a pivotal role in not just the declining population but also other problems a lack of “attainable housing” can cause.

Bucks County is home to one of the first Levittowns, several early planned suburban communities developed by William J. Levitt after World War II, which brought a boom of young families out of the apartments of Philadelphia and Trenton, New Jersey.

“It was housing for middle-class families that never thought they could own a house … and now, all of a sudden, they had a house with a driveway and a yard,” Harvie said.

Soaring rent and high property values have led to a housing crisis nationwide, and it’s become increasingly harder for those born or raised in Bucks County to stay here.

More: Majority of Pa. counties projected to lose population by 2050. Rural areas bear the brunt.

“What we're seeing is really it's very hard for young people who were born here, raised here, went to school here, to stay here. And so, they're moving to different states or moving to the city,” Harvie said.

“You need housing you can afford, and right now we just don’t have a lot of that,” Harvie added.

Harvie doesn’t think another wave of suburban housing developments is the answer to keeping BucksCounty's young people living in the area, but it’s also hard to predict exactly what will meet the needs of the people and future residential developers.

As part of a commonwealth, there’s also not much the county can do unilaterally as far as guiding development. Zoning laws dictate what building use can go where, and those regulations are largely controlled at the municipal level.

Ultimately, whatever changes come to Bucks County over the next few decades, Harvie said he hopes for “smart growth” overall.

“You want to try to make a change that you can be comfortable with and manage that change in a way that benefits, you know, your residents and is done in a smart way.”

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Bucks County population to shrink. Why officials need to plan now