Busy 2024 hurricane season forecasted for Ocean City, Mid-Atlantic area. What to know.
The official 2024 Hurricane Forecast released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for a busy year for the East Coast, including Ocean City and the mid-Atlantic area.
In what NOAA calls "above normal" activity, the report is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 miles-per-hour or higher. Of those, eight to 13 are forecasted to become hurricanes with winds of 74 miles-per-hour or higher, including four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5. Those typically have winds of 111 miles-per-hour or higher.
According to the agency, forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
"We're looking at the potential for an above normal hurricane season, and that's based on recent trends of (changing weather patterns)," said Andrew Zimmerman, a meteorologist with the Wakefield, Va. office of the National Weather Service. "This far out, it's difficult to see exactly what will happen for the Delmarva Peninsula, but we want to focus on is that it's not too early to prepare. When you have high waves, there may be the situation when you have hurricanes in succession even if it's tracking off the coast. You will have secondary impacts."
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Why such a busy forecast for the 2024 hurricane season?
The outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season spans from June 1 to Nov. 30, and some reasons behind an active report are near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Ni?a conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.
NOAA also noted human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.
"Further out, when you're putting together a forecast, you look at extended range models and a (collection) of data so that the National Hurricane Center can put something out. We'll look at rainfall on high-resolution data to see where fontal boundaries might be to see there the heaviest rainfall will be and cause flash flooding," Zimmerman said.
According to the agency, a busy hurricane season will also mean a critical look at property preparedness and actively informing the public on approaching dangerous weather.
"With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
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This article originally appeared on Salisbury Daily Times: Ocean City, Mid-Atlantic area can expect a busy 2024 hurricane season