As Central Indiana's suburbs grow, Democrats see an opportunity in November elections

The growth of Central Indiana’s northern suburbs has impacts on affordable housing, traffic, infrastructure, development and, potentially, future elections.

Since at least 2018, northern Indianapolis and its suburban counties are trending from historically reliable Republican voting areas to more purple-performing districts.

Just in the past four years, Democrats won statehouse seats in these areas, Carmel and Fishers elected the first Democrats to their city councils and President Joe Biden won in Carmel two years ago.

Indiana Democrats hope that trend continues in November, as some of the most competitive statehouse districts in the state overlap northern Marion County, Boone and Hamilton Counties. Among those races are Senate Districts 31 and 29 and House Districts 32 and 39.

Democrats believe wins in these state house and senate districts could help make a dent in the Republican supermajority, especially after the fall of Roe v. Wade and the passage of Indiana’s near-total abortion ban this summer.

“It really is the most competitive terrain in the state,” Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Mike Schmuhl said.

Experts say the changing political tide in the northern suburbs is likely due to changing demographics shifting toward Democrats as the populations of suburban communities skew younger and more diverse.

“The demographic has changed with new people moving into the area, and there's no question about that,” said Republican State Rep. Jerry Torr, of Carmel, who is running for reelection in House District 39.

It doesn’t mean areas like Hamilton County will go strictly blue in the future, but is increasing the likelihood Democrats could win, said Andy Downs, director emeritus of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics.

“What is likely to happen in a number of cases is that the margin by which the Republican won two years ago, or maybe even four years ago, will be less and so we may not see a shift in control the legislature by many seats, but we will see a narrowing of the gap,” Downs said. “The Democrats will then use it as the inspiration for recruiting people to run in 24 for House and Senate seats, but also as a way to attack the Republicans in the legislature in 23.”

Senate District 31: Democrat Jocelyn Vare challenges incumbent Republican Kyle Walker

In Senate District 31, at-large Fishers City Councilwoman Jocelyn Vare is running against Republican Kyle Walker in one of the statehouse races that August polling by Change Research showed was nearly tied.

Senate District 31 overlaps Hamilton and Marion counties.

Vare in 2019 was among the first Democrats elected to the Fishers City Council. The Fishers resident is a mom and a small business owner.

More:If all goes as planned, Fishers Democratic councilor won't complete first term

Vare began her campaign for Senate District 31 in 2021 after redistricting put all of Fishers in one senate district, she said. Historically, multiple senate districts have overlapped the city.

“I had no idea, though, that abortion would be the No. 1 issue this election and I’m here to tell you it absolutely is,” she said.

Vare said abortion rights is the top issue she hears from voters as she campaigns in the district.

“Across the board from this cross-section of voters or residents is disappointment, and even, frankly, horror, that the GOP supermajority within a two week timeframe removes women's access to abortion and across the board women and men are shocked that happened so quickly,” Vare said.

If Vare is elected, she said she would “fight” to repeal Senate Bill 1 and revert back to the state’s previous abortion legislation prohibiting the procedure at 20 weeks.

“Frankly, that is still restrictive, but it is appropriate and I have reached that conclusion because that is what I hear citizens want,” she said. “That is reasonable. It absolutely allows women access to the healthcare and abortions that they may need.”

Vare said she would like to see a repeal of the permitless carry bill, which allows people to legally carry a handgun without a license. Additionally, Vare said she would support more funding for public schools and teachers.

Vare believes her campaign and fellow Democrats can change the makeup of the statehouse, which she said is “too extreme” and “not reflective of Hoosiers.”

“There is, in this moment, grave concern about how the GOP supermajority serves Hoosiers and therefore we know seat by seat if we rebalance the statehouse, the outcomes for Hoosiers will be better,” Vare said.

Walker, of Lawrence, was elected to Senate District 31 in 2020 via Republican caucus to fill the seat vacated by Jim Merritt. He previously served on the Lawrence City Council and owns a consulting firm.

Walker is a more moderate member of the Republican caucus in the legislature. He said he is proud of his legislative accomplishments, which include a bill during the 2022 session that allowed governments to enter into public-private partnerships for transportation projects, a bill that established a sports tourism fund for athletic events in Indiana and a bill that establishes electronic monitoring of offenders.

More:How a statewide sports and tourism bill could benefit Grand Park in Westfield

Walker also is proud of a bill that establishes a fund to provide and pay for car insurance for foster children, he said.

“It’s a huge challenge for them as they start to enter adulthood and independence, and so this provides an opportunity for them to both have access to it, which is partially the issue, and then when they do get access to it, it’s very expensive,” Walker said.

Walker drew attention ahead of the special session this summer for publicly stating his own position on abortion rights, which was less restrictive than the near-total ban proposed and passed by his fellow Republicans.

From the summer:Indiana lawmakers to release proposal to restrict abortion

Walker, who voted against Senate Bill 1, said he does not believe his position on abortion rights will have a negative impact on his chances for reelection.

“It’s not a black-and-white issue. There’s a lot of nuance,” Walker said. “I believe, my position of trying to have a balanced approach to the policy is in line with the majority of folks that are in my district.”

If reelected, Walker said he would like to continue work on public safety and economic development issues. He said he also wants to continue helping foster children.

“It’s become a passion of mine,” he said.

Senate District 29: Republican Alex Choi faces Democratic incumbent J.D. Ford

Republican physician Alex Choi is running against Democratic incumbent and minority caucus chair J.D. Ford in Senate District 29, which covers portions of Hamilton, Boone and Marion counties.

Alex Choi, of Zionsville, is the chief of anesthesia for IU Health’s suburban hospitals and surgery centers. Choi serves as an at-large member on the Zionsville Town Council and on the board of charter school United Schools of Indianapolis.

Choi said he has previously advocated for healthcare issues at the statehouse through leadership with the Indiana State Medical Association.

He said he is running for office because he wants to contribute to policies that lead to “a healthier Indiana.”

"It's not just about the quality of life of being healthier," Choi said. "It's also about the economy of life and being able to keep more of your paycheck and also attract more businesses to Indiana."

Choi said he is in favor of abortion rights, although that is not his personal viewpoint.

“I’m also a small government person and I’m also a physician,” Choi said. “So where I land on this is that the belief in and access to abortion should be a decision made between a woman and her health care provider. That is a health care decision. It is an emotional decision. It is a very personal decision. No matter how I feel about it personally, I feel very strongly that this is not an area where the government really should get involved.”

Choi said his role as a physician would give him the ability to help with Republican majority policies at the statehouse.

“Do I think I could make an impact on what happened with Senate Bill 1, I don’t know,” Choi said. “But as a physician and being Republican, I think I have more of an impact than somebody else in this position in this role.”

Choi said he believes he could have an impact on healthcare policies tied to abortion, such as access to contraceptives.

“That is one area that I’m a strong advocate for,” Choi said. “If you’re going to pass something that restricts abortion or effectively abolishing abortion, then you need to provide all the options necessary so that unwanted pregnancies don’t happen in the first place.”

Choi wants to address mental health in Indiana if he is elected. Choi said he is bipolar and suffers from anxiety and panic attacks. He said he is also a recovering alcoholic and is 6 years sober.

“I wish I could tell you, ‘Hey, I’m going to get into the legislature and do X, Y and Z and help solve the mental health crisis in Indiana,” Choi said. “I don’t but I can help bring the conversation to light, bring good people to the table and really see where we can make an impact with the resources we have.”

Senator J.D. Ford, of Wayne Township, was elected to the Indiana Senate in 2018 in a historically Republican district.

Ford, a member of the LGBTQ+ community, said he’s running for reelection to continue the work he has done in the senate during the past three years and to provide a “balance” at the statehouse.

“Losing this seat would mean we would be going backwards, and that’s not healthy,” Ford said. “I would also argue that it’s just incredibly important to vote our values. We saw the CRT bill this year. We saw the permitless carry bill this year. We saw the abortion bill this year. So in the district, whether it be phone calls or emails or even just face-to-face coffee appointments, I listened to the district and voted our values of what we care about.”

Ford said some of his accomplishments while in the senate include serving as the top Democrat on the senate’s education committee during debate on House Bill 1134, which would have prohibited many “divisive concepts” and given parents more power over curriculum and classroom activities.

More:Indiana Senate kills CRT-inspired legislation that created outrage among educators, Black Hoosiers

“We actually defeated that bill during the 2022 session and I was proud to lead those efforts in doing so,” Ford said.

But Ford said “the worst two weeks this year” was the special legislative session this summer in which the Indiana General Assembly passed a near-total ban on abortion.

Ford voted against Senate Bill 1 and said it should be repealed. The state also needs to work on access to contraceptives and comprehensive sexual education, he said.

“The road to bodily autonomy for women in our state is going to be a long and bumpy and arduous one,” Ford said. “But as I mentioned on the senate floor, in my closing remarks, is that I'm dedicated to them, to be on this journey with them to restore those rights for those women.”

Ford said he questions how Choi could have influence over abortion policy if the physician is elected to the state senate as a freshman in the majority party.

"That would be a new senator telling the majority party that they made a wrong decision and I don't think that they're going to embrace that position," Ford said. "In fact, I think it will have the opposite effect. I think they will ostracize him for his positions because they would see it as too liberal."

Ford said he has passed more than 70 bills, which demonstrates his ability to work with both Democrats and Republicans, despite the Republican supermajority.

If reelected, Ford said he would like to continue to work on educational issues, especially finding ways to improve student mental health.

Ford authored a bill during the 2022 session that would have, among actions, allowed administrators to OK student absences due to mental health. The bill did not move out of committee, but Ford said he’s especially aware of mental health impacts on the LGBTQ+ community.

“Me, being our only out serving member of the LGBTQ+ community and my unique perspective … I try to be open and visible and authentic and let students know that they can too,” he said.

House District 32: Democrat Victoria Garcia Wilburn runs against Republican Fred Glynn

In the new House District 32, which does not have an incumbent, Democrat Victoria Garcia Wilburn is running against Republican Fred Glynn. The district was formed after 2021 redistricting and covers portions of Hamilton County and northern Marion County.

Victoria Garcia Wilburn, of Indianapolis, is an assistant professor of occupational therapy at IUPUI. She is a mom of three children and the wife of a retired police officer.

Garcia Wilburn said she was inspired to run after serving as the immediate past president of the Indiana Occupational Therapy Association where she was involved in advocacy at the statehouse.

“Being at the statehouse made me realize how women and in particular women of color are not very well represented,” Garcia Wilburn said. “You really need diverse perspectives to govern efficiently and effectively.”

If elected, Wilburn said she would like to work on bringing better mental health access and environmental standards to improve air quality in Indiana.

“I have been on a crusade with several community organizations for the past five years to improve mental and behavioral health access in our state, so I am very, very passionate about mental health,” Garcia Wilburn said. “I’m particularly passionate about adolescent mental health.”

Additionally, Wilburn said Indiana’s near-total abortion ban passed over the summer is a “very sensitive issue” and “a complete overstep of regulation.”

“Abortion is healthcare and healthcare decisions need to be made between patient and providers,” she said. “It's hard for me to think what a slippery slope this could be, if we open the door for other government intrusion in health care decisions.”

Fred Glynn, of Carmel, is a two-term Hamilton County Councilor and a one-time Carmel mayoral candidate.

Glynn won a close-race for the Republican nomination for House District 32 against former Trump administration official Suzie Jaworowski earlier this year.

Glynn said his “leadership” and “teamwork” on the Hamilton County Council helped the county achieve a AAA bond rating, low tax rates and land purchased for the county’s first domestic violence shelter.

If elected to House District 32, Glynn said in a response to emailed questions that he wants to focus on education, public safety and property tax issues.

“My focus will be on empowering parents when it comes to their children’s education, exploring ways to reign in rogue prosecutors that are causing crime to skyrocket in our cities, supporting law enforcement in the era of misguided defund the police efforts, and ensuring property tax assessments impacted by inflation don’t result in a tax hit for homeowners,” Glynn wrote.

Ahead of the May primary, Glynn told IndyStar he spoke with teachers who did not like House Bill 1134, which would have limited topics teachers could address in the classroom, but that those teachers wanted parts of the bill to be addressed at the state level.

More:Transgender sports, gun rights, schools: House District 32 candidates on hot button issues

“They’re saying the test scores are slipping, that there’s been more of an activist focus there and that’s creeping into the schools,” Glynn said ahead of the primary.

Glynn did not answer questions from IndyStar about his position on abortion or Senate Bill 1.

Glynn drew attention from Democrats over the summer for allegedly removing language from his website that stated life begins at conception.

He wrote that voters he has spoken with are more concerned with “schools, inflation and crime.”

“Over the summer our lawmakers were tasked with confronting a very complex and emotional issue. No matter what they passed there were going to be unhappy people on both sides of the debate,” Glynn wrote. “Now is the time to let the bill take effect and allow time to understand its full impact and if any changes need to be made.”

House District 39: Democrat Matt McNally challenges longtime incumbent Republican Jerry Torr

In House District 39, Democrat Matt McNally is trying to pick off Rep. Jerry Torr, a longtime influential Republican and head of the House Judiciary committee. House District 39 in Hamilton County covers Carmel and southern Westfield.

McNally, of Westfield, has two children and served in the military for 22 years, 20 of which were on active duty, he said. McNally said he spent a year in Afghanistan.

His service to the country was a driver to run for office, McNally said.

“When I think about why I’m running, it’s a big sense of duty and responsibility, the same reasons that compelled me to serve,” McNally said. “I think about the later years in Afghanistan, our job and what we were there to do was help establish democracy, including women’s rights. I never expected to have those rights taken from my daughter.”

McNally, who said he is in favor of abortion rights, said he has knocked on more than 14,000 doors in House District 39 as of early October and that voters said the Indiana legislature has “gone too far” on the near-total abortion ban passed this summer. 

“You want to talk about liberty and freedom and limited government, this is government overreach and a lot of people feel that way.”

McNally said other issues that matter to him include funding for public schools. Both of his children attend Westfield High School, McNally said.

“The community wants good public schools. It affects everything from current property values to future work opportunities for our children, to the economic future of the state of Indiana,” McNally said. “Yet, we have people who have been in office a long time who were voting against public schools and supporting their public teachers.”

McNally said he hopes his military career and sense of duty connects with voters.

“Seeing a suburban dad out in the streets, fighting for his daughter, I think that resonates with a lot of people,” he said. “There are so many people that feel like they haven't had a voice. There are people that have been neglected by politicians in this area for 20 years.”

Torr, of Carmel, was first elected to the Indiana statehouse in 1996.

Torr said his accomplishments in the 26 years he has been in office include in 2005 when he authored a bill to put Indiana on Daylight Savings Time. His proudest moment, he said, was making Indiana a right-to-work state in 2012, which prohibited employees from being forced to join labor unions as part of employment.

“That absorbed quite a bit of my life for eight years,” Torr said.

More:How Indiana went from ‘God’s time’ to split zones and daylight-saving

In 2014:Indiana Supreme Court upholds 'right to work' law

Torr over the summer voted to pass the state’s near-total abortion ban.

Torr said there are valid arguments on both sides of the abortion rights debate. It’s an issue “I never particularly cared to deal with politically,” he said.

Torr believed voting yes was the right vote after hearing from constituents and listening to committee testimony in the House and Senate, he said.

“I knew it would cost me some voters, frankly, but I have never decided how to vote based on what the political consequences might be and I wasn’t going to start with that,” he said.

If reelected, Torr said he would like to help Hoosiers with impacts of crime and assessed values on property taxes.

“I think we're also going to have to do something to protect property taxpayers from the significant increases that a lot of folks have seen in their assessed values, because of the housing market, I think that's going to be a big issue,” Torr said. “And helping to curb violent crime in urban areas and increasingly closer to the suburbs. I think that's a very important issue that we need to work on.”

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Democrats see opportunities in elections as northern suburbs grow