Comparing Donald Trump’s Polling Now to 2020 and 2016
From the Dispatch Politics on The Dispatch
Happy Monday! We somehow made it through a weekend without having to do an emergency edition of some Dispatch newsletter. Thanks for the day off, world!
Up to Speed
Vice President Kamala Harris raised $200 million for her campaign in less than a week, with 66 percent of those coming from first-time donors, her campaign announced Sunday. The announcement comes after the campaign last week said it had raised more than $126 million in three days, with $86 million coming in her first 24 hours as a candidate.
In a new op-ed in Monday’s Washington Post, President Joe Biden laid out three proposed changes for the Supreme Court: a constitutional amendment undoing the court’s decision on presidential immunity, term limits for Supreme Court justices, and an enforceable ethics code. Soon after, Harris’ campaign issued a statement from the vice president aligning herself with what she called “important reforms” to the high court. “Today, there is a clear crisis of confidence facing the Supreme Court as its fairness has been called into question after numerous ethics scandals and decision after decision overturning long-standing precedent,” Harris said.
Chris LaCivita, a top adviser to Donald Trump’s campaign, on Saturday posted a new ad attacking Harris for her connection to the Minnesota Freedom Fund, a bail fund for protesters arrested in the summer of 2020, which also bailed out people charged with violent crimes. The ad highlights a tweet from 2020 in which Harris encouraged people to donate to the fund and lists examples of alleged violent criminals whom the fund has posted bail for. “Soon all of America will know the price people have and will pay for ?@KamalaHarris dangerous ideas,” LaCivita wrote on X.
Trump on Sunday endorsed both Blake Masters and Abe Hamadeh in the Republican primary for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, which takes place Tuesday. “Blake Masters is a very successful businessman, and an incredibly strong supporter of our Movement to Make America Great Again – He is smart and tough! Likewise, Abe Hamadeh, a Veteran, former prosecutor, and fearless fighter for Election Integrity, has been with me all the way!” Trump had previously endorsed only Hamadeh in December, while his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, had endorsed Masters.
The same day, Trump also endorsed Joe Kent, one of two Republicans running in the August 6 primary—in which the top two vote-getters advance—for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District. Trump previously backed Kent in the district’s 2022 primary when Kent defeated incumbent Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler—who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, riot. Kent lost to Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in the 2022 general election.
On Saturday, Trump endorsed three candidates in the GOP primary for Missouri’s gubernatorial race—Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, and state Sen. Bill Eigel—which also occurs August 6. Trump in his post said all three were “great” and that he could not endorse one without hurting the other two: “You can’t go wrong!”
Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire criticized Vance for his 2021 comment that the country was effectively run by “childless cat ladies,” including Harris. “I don’t think those comments were helpful,” Sununu told ABC News. “Those are personal attacks that can alienate a huge part of that independent voter block that you need.” Vance sought to explain his comments Friday in an interview with Megyn Kelly. “The simple point that I made is that having children, becoming a father, becoming a mother, I really do think it changes your perspective in a pretty profound way,” he told the conservative commentator.
The Reality of Trump vs. Harris Right Now
Vice President Kamala Harris is a brand new White House contender and it’s difficult to know how formidable, or not she will be, although initial signs for the presumptive Democratic nominee are promising. And former President Donald Trump?
The one-time reality television host and real estate mogul has been the putative leader of the Republican Party for nearly a decade. Despite myriad vulnerabilities and weaknesses for Harris to exploit in the final 100 days of this campaign, Trump is arguably the strongest he’s ever been as a presidential candidate. A review of the public opinion polls from his first two presidential campaigns, and the 2024 surveys, tells the tale.
By the numbers, Trump is in better electoral shape today than he was at this point in 2016 versus Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Ditto in 2020 versus Biden.
On Monday morning, Trump was leading Harris in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls by a margin of 1.7 percentage points—47.9 percent to 46.2 percent. Four years ago today, Biden led Trump in the RealClearPolitics average by 8.4 points and was cracking the important 50 percent threshold, enjoying a 50.1 percent to 41.7 percent advantage over the then-incumbent president. Eight years ago, Trump and Clinton were tied at 44.3 percent, each.
It’s not just the extent of Trump’s lead today, compared to trailing or being tied in the previous campaigns. Look at Trump’s vote share, a critical metric. Presently, he is approaching 48 percent of the vote, putting him closer to 50 percent on a consistent basis than he’s ever been. Four years ago, Trump was just above 40 percent at this stage of the race—and in that first campaign against Clinton he was in the mid 40s. The mid 40s has, until now, been his ceiling; Trump won in 2016 with 46.1 percent of the vote and lost in 2020 with 46.8 percent of the vote.
In nine of the 15 polls that make up the polling average referenced above, Trump is at 48 percent or higher; in seven of those surveys, he is garnering 49 percent of the vote, or higher.
The candidates’ personal favorability ratings—also an important factor in presidential campaigns—also shows signs of improvement for Trump when compared to his previous campaigns. We had trouble finding a complete set of perfectly competing numbers based on this day in history. But in 2016, Trump outpaced Clinton on Election Day despite a disapproval number of 61 percent, as measured by Gallup, compared to just 52 percent for his opponent. By late July of 2020, Trump’s popularity as measured by the 538 average was somewhat improved but still significantly high at 55.6 percent disapproving.
Today, the 538 average of surveys gauging the former president’s popularity shows his unfavorable rating sitting at 52.1 percent. Harris’ unfavorable rating is at 52.22 percent in the same average (and Biden is at 55.6 percent.)
None of this is to say Trump will win. As we’ve written, Harris replacing Biden atop the Democratic ticket has made this race newly competitive. But Trump can win, and today, the data suggests that the former president should be considered the favorite. That’s the reality.
Scott Walker on Trump’s GOP
When Sean O’Brien, the head of the Teamsters (one of the largest labor organizations that represents workers in both the private and public sectors), delivered a fiery pro-union speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee earlier this month, former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was watching and listening.
Walker’s past fights with public-sector unions rallied Republicans across the country and briefly made the two-term Republican a top contender for the party’s nominee for president in 2016. But in an interview last week, Walker told Dispatch Politics that O’Brien’s address, which railed against “corporate elites” and businesses that commit “economic terrorism” against labor organizers, was a positive development for the GOP.
“At a convention, your goal, your audience, is not the people there. It’s the people at home,” Walker said. “And if you’re sending a message that untraditional folks might be supporting your candidate, that’s generally a good thing.”
It’s a remarkable admission from Walker, once the favorite of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. It’s also indicative of the shifting balance of power from traditional conservatives to working-class populists within the Republican coalition.
After winning his race for governor in 2010, Walker gained a reputation as a champion of conservative causes. His most notable legislative accomplishment in his first term was the 2011 signing of Act 10, which abridged public-sector unions’ collective bargaining ability as a means of balancing the state’s budget. Fervent opposition to the bill spawned a 2012 recall effort that drew in national attention and money from both sides of the aisle.
Walker won the recall election, making him the first governor in American history to do so. He then won reelection in 2014 and signed a right-to-work law in March 2015—months before formally launching his campaign for president. Things did not go his way in the GOP primary, and incumbent Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers defeated him in the state’s 2018 gubernatorial race.
Today, Walker serves as president of Young America’s Foundation, a conservative youth organization that seeks to preserve the legacy of Ronald Reagan. Some have pointed to O’Brien’s speech as evidence that former President Donald Trump’s stewardship of the GOP has turned the party away from its Reaganite heritage (though the Teamsters endorsed Reagan in 1980 and 1984). To that point, Walker said he disapproved of O’Brien’s prescriptions for the country, which included government-mandated reforms of corporate welfare and bankruptcy practices.
“I didn’t mind him being there,” Walker told Dispatch Politics. “I just—the answer isn’t more government, more regulations. The answer is more prosperity.”
Despite the Teamsters president’s rhetoric, Walker predicted that Trump, as the 47th president, would look similar to the 40th.
“It may not be a common analysis, but I think it’ll be very similar to Reagan,” Walker said, “in the sense that I think he’ll do more tax cuts. I think he’ll do more to ease the regulatory burden—very much things that Reagan did—continue the solid Supreme Court and other court appointments. I think even on trade, he’ll continue to push hard to say, ‘You want free trade? Let’s make it fair. Let’s level it off, compete on a similar ground.’”
For evidence of this claim, Walker pointed to the traditionally conservative people that held high-ranking positions in the first Trump administration.
“There’s people that like him based on his personality, and there are others who like the substance,” he said. “And so because of people like Larry Kudlow, Art Laffer on the economic side, people like Mike Pompeo, Robert O’Brien, or others who helped on the foreign policy standpoint, there’s a lot to like, no matter where you fall on the personality spectrum.”
To Walker’s point, Pompeo, who served as secretary of state under Trump, co-authored an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that laid out “a Trump peace plan for Ukraine,” which included a buildup of America’s defense industry, a lend-lease program for Ukraine, and the country’s admission to a revitalized NATO once the war ends. At the same time, Trump himself has not commented on the plan, and Walker said Trump may not give a full-throated endorsement of aid to Ukraine.
“I think Trump’s style will be much different than what we’ve experienced in the past,” he told Dispatch Politics. “It certainly may be different than Reagan’s was, but I also think he has some empathy for the people of Ukraine trying to fight back. His answer may just not be pushing more aid. There may be other ways that he engages in that, not the least of which may be talking directly to Putin.
Walker said he was sympathetic to concerns over Trump’s rhetoric, acknowledging that even he does not agree with everything the former president says. But he maintained that the choice in the election was “binary” between Trump and his Democratic opponent.
“In the Midwest, we value doers over talkers,” he said. “A lot of politicians say all the right things in this town and then don’t do squat. I’ll take a doer over a talker every day, even if I don’t always agree with some of the things he says. And that’s where it is with the president—don’t always agree with the style, don’t always agree with some of the comments. But when I compare him to what the alternative is, no choice.”
Notable and Quotable
“JD Vance is weird.”
—Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign in a press email, which also called the Republican vice presidential nominee “a creep,” July 26, 2024
