Who will control the House after 2024? From Michigan to California, these are the tight races to watch
WASHINGTON – All 435 House seats are up for grabs in the 2024 elections, but just a small fraction of them will be competitive races and help determine which party takes control of the lower chamber next year.
The stakes are particularly high in 2024, considering Republicans have the narrowest of majorities in the House. GOP lawmakers' razor-thin command has made it difficult for them to pass conservative priorities, thanks to a handful of recalcitrant members.
Republicans currently control 219 seats, while Democrats hold 212 (Democrats will hold 213 seats when Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., is sworn into Congress.) That means all it would take for Democrats to reclaim control is flipping just a few districts.
Here are some races to watch this year:
Republican seats in Joe Biden's districts
Much of the focus in this year’s House races will be on the 17 Republicans representing districts President Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. These “crossover” districts, as they’re called, will be critical in determining control of the lower chamber.
These districts are where Democrats see their best chances of recapturing the House. Republicans will have to defend most if not all of these seats if they hope to keep their slim majority – or expand it.
The 17 Republicans representing Biden-won districts are:
Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz.
Rep. John Duarte, R-Calif.
Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif.
Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif.
Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif.
Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Calif.
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb.
Rep. Tom Kean Jr., R-N.J.
Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y.
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y.
Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y.
Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y.
Rep. Brandon Williams, R-N.Y.
Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, R-Ore.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa.
Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va.
Democratic seats in Donald Trump's districts
While not as many in number, Republicans also have a set of vulnerable seats to target: Democrats representing districts former President Donald Trump won in the 2020 election.
If Republicans want to keep their majority and get a little more breathing room to pass legislation – something that has grown rarer in recent years – capturing some of these seats is almost essential.
The 5 Democrats representing Trump-won districts are:
Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska
Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio
Rep. Matt Cartwright, D-Pa.
Rep. Marie Glesenkamp-Perez, D-Wash.
Other races in play
It’s not just crossover districts that both parties will be heavily investing in this year. There’s also a handful of seats in play for both Democrats and Republicans that could make or break the House majority.
In Michigan, for example, Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin and Dan Kildee are leaving their competitive districts, potentially opening up their seats for Republicans’ taking. Slotkin is running for the Senate, while Kildee is retiring.
Democrats also have a chance to flip California’s 41st congressional district from red to blue. Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., a House veteran who’s served since 1993, is now considered a vulnerable member thanks to redistricting from the 2020 census.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who will control the House after 2024? The tight races to watch
