Could Beshear flip Kentucky blue as a VP candidate?

If Gov. Andy Beshear appears on the November ballot as the vice presidential candidate, do Democrats have a shot at flipping Kentucky from red to blue?

Not likely, said Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky.

Ultimately, it's the name at the top of the ticket that matters, Voss said. And Kentucky voters are more likely to go for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris, if she's the Democratic nominee.

"Research on the effect of candidate home state suggests that while the presidential candidate enjoys a friends and neighbors bump from home state voters, the VP selection makes little or no difference to the ticket," Voss said.

Beshear has become a popular contender as a running mate for Harris over the past week, joining a growing list of Democrats who the Harris campaign is reportedly vetting for the position.

His ability to twice win as a Democratic governor in a deep-red state is likely appealing to party leaders, political scientists say.

In the 2023 gubernatorial election, Beshear received 53% of the vote against Republican challenger Daniel Cameron. He also flipped eight counties and won 29 in the election, compared to securing 23 counties in 2019. Two of the flipped counties included Letcher and Perry, which were some of the hardest hit during deadly 2022 floods.

Some are skeptical, however, that Beshear's gubernatorial wins would translate on a national level.

For one, presidential elections typically have a higher turnout than gubernatorial ones, said Trey Grayson, former Kentucky GOP Secretary of State.

In 2020, 60.3% of registered Kentucky voters cast ballots in the general election, while 38.1% voted in 2023.

"I think that's in part because the electorate is just different, that the (presidential) electorate is more Republican," Grayson said.

More: Beshear ranks as most popular Democratic governor in new national poll

A higher percentage of registered Republican voters voted 2020, at 64.4%. Meanwhile, 59.4% of Democrats showed up to the polls.

Others say Trump already has a stronghold in Kentucky and having Beshear as Harris' running mate isn't going to sway Kentucky voters.

"There's no chance anyone's gonna flip Kentucky," said Tres Watson, a longtime Kentucky political consultant and former GOP spokesman. "Trump won Kentucky in the primary even more than he won West Virginia. Even with Beshear, it's still going to be 60/40 Trump."

In the 2020 presidential election, Trump won Kentucky with 62.1% of the vote and pulled 84.9% of the vote in this year's primary election. The last time the commonwealth voted blue in the presidential election was in 1996 for then-Democratic nominee Bill Clinton.

There still are a number of Kentucky Democrats who are excited about a potential Harris-Beshear ticket, including Democratic U.S. Rep. Morgan McGarvey, who posted his support on X, formerly known as Twitter.

"I like the sound of Harris Beshear," he said with an angel emoji.

There's more to choosing a vice presidential candidate than just whether they can win their home state.

Voss said he hopes the Harris campaign looks at more than where the candidate is from and whether they can win their state's electoral college votes when choosing her vice presidential pick.

"Much more important is how the the running mate helps amplify the messaging that will be coming from the top of the ticket, how the running mate will make voters all over the country think about the presidential candidate in a different way," Voss said.

Reach reporter Hannah Pinski at @[email protected] or follow her on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @hannahpinski.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Could Beshear flip Kentucky blue as VP candidate?