Dejected Democrats look to House as ‘only hope’
For Democrats around the country, the last hope rests in the House.
The party lost control of the Senate on Tuesday, as expected. And by the early hours of Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ projected that former President Trump had won the presidency, securing the 270 electoral votes needed to defeat Vice President Harris and return to the White House next year for a second term.
Only the House remains unresolved, leaving the battle for the lower chamber as the Democrats’ last chance to control a lever of power in Washington — and push back on the second Trump administration.
It’s a dynamic that hasn’t been overlooked by Democrats, who were dejected by their party’s performance and are now watching anxiously for signs that not all was lost.
“In terms of the power trifecta, the House is the only hope for Democrats to maintain a check on our out of control Donald Trump,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), a 15-year veteran of the lower chamber, told The Hill in an interview early Wednesday morning.
“The results tonight are grim … for the country, and Democrats offer those who believe in constitutional democracy the only hope of presence in the White House and an enabling Republican Senate,” he continued. “So a lot is hinging on district-by-district results tonight.”
Democrats saw a few bright spots in shooting for that goal.
They defeated at least two incumbent Republicans in New York — Reps. Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams — according to The Associated Press and Decision Desk HQ, respectively, and appeared on track to pick off a third in Rep. Anthony D’Esposito.
As of the early hours of Wednesday morning, California Democrat Will Rollins had a slight edge over GOP Rep. Ken Calvert, who’s been on Capitol Hill for 32 years. In Oregon, Democratic challenger Janelle Bynum was leading first-term Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who represents one of their best pickup opportunities. And in Washington, Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had the advantage over her GOP opponent for a seat Republicans have fought hard to flip.
Democrats also retained control of the open seat in north-central Virginia being vacated by retiring Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) — a district Republicans had hoped to pick up. They kept the “toss up” seat left open by retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in Michigan. And several of their most vulnerable incumbents put wins on the board, including Reps. Pat Ryan (D) in New York, Don Davis in North Carolina, and Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico.
Several other seats are in striking distance but too close to call, including a highly contested race in Maine that has three-term Democratic Rep. Jared Golden leading his challenger by 2 points heading into final counting. And Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), another top GOP target, also has a late edge in Ohio.
But Republicans also saw bright spots. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) fended off a tough challenge in a battleground district that includes blue-leaning Des Moines, and Republican Tom Barrett flipped an open seat in Michigan being vacated by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who ran for Senate.
And GOP Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.), who has been a Democratic target for most of the last decade, will keep his seat.
Republicans were also leading Democratic incumbents in some key Pennsylvania races, with Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), a 12-year veteran, trailing GOP challenger Rob Bresnahan, and GOP state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie having an edge over four-term Rep. Susan Wild (D).
Heading into the polls, the House margins were already razor-thin: Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats to win control of the gavel. But dozens of competitive races remain uncalled, including a handful in California that could take weeks to resolve. That means House lawmakers might be facing a lengthy window of uncertainty as late ballots trickle in, slow-counting states tally their results and any court challenges work their way through the courts.
Connolly — who won reelection by more than 33 percentage points Tuesday — said he was not optimistic nor pessimistic about Democrats’ chances of winning the chamber, acknowledging that both parties have a path to the majority.
“I’m neither,” he said. “I’m in the anxious and anticipatory mood.”
“The House — the battle for the House has always been a battle of ground math,” he continued. “There’s no tide, sweeping House races. So it is a battle fought out district by district.”
Trump, however, did not skip a beat in declaring victory for House Republicans. During his victory speech in West Palm Beach, Fla., early Wednesday morning, the president-elect predicted he will have a House GOP majority alongside him in Washington next year.
“It also looks like we’ll be keeping control of the House of Representatives. And I want to thank Mike Johnson. I think he’s doing a terrific job,” he said, referring to the Republican House Speaker representing Louisiana.
Other Republicans tempered their expectations.
“Not doing declarations, and there’s a lot out to come in, but I’d rather be us than them in the House,” said Dan Conston, the head of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership.
Another GOP strategist familiar with House races concurred.
“We are confident we will hold the House majority when this is all said and done, and we still see a pathway to picking up seats,” the GOP strategist said. “Still more to come in, but what we are seeing is encouraging.”
Some of the races could stretch out to recounts or legal battles. But in the meantime, there could be plenty of posturing.
The campaign for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) — who won her first election in 2020 by just six votes — declared victory early Wednesday morning despite a lack of race calls for the very close race, saying the 400-vote lead made the team “confident in a positive result when all votes are counted.”
Updated Nov. 6 at 10:55 a.m.
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