Democrats led early voting after Trump's attacks on mail-in ballots. Now Trump needs to dominate Election Day
WASHINGTON – As Democrats dominate mail-in early voting, President Donald Trump will have to rely on strong in-person Election Day turnout among Republicans to defeat Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
The spread of the COVID-19 virus is surging in several Midwest battleground states – Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan – where the president needs Republican voters to flock to the polls.
Trump's yearlong disparagement of mail-in voting turned off many of his voters to absentee ballots. Democrats embraced the method, casting nearly double the mail-in ballots of Republican voters nationwide. Though Republicans narrowed the gap with in-person early voting, Trump heads into Election Day facing a likely vote deficit nationally and in swing states.
At least 92 million people, a record, have voted early, either in person or by mail, according to the United States Elections Project.
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Democratic voters accounted for 48.3% of all early votes cast, and Republicans accounted for 41.5%, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic elections data firm that combines party information from states and its own modeling. Voters with no party affiliation made up 10.2% of early voters. Polling has shown Biden ahead with independent voters, although the margin has thinned.
Trump has one day to reverse turnout trends.
"His voters have clearly listened to his call to avoid mail voting, and many of them are waiting for that Election Day experience to go out there," said Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart. "Because of what we've seen with the early vote – Democrats are reaching record levels of turnout – Republicans are going to need to do something similar on Election Day. They're going to need to vote in numbers of the likes of which we've never seen before."
Democrats turned in 49% of the 33 million mail ballots returned in the 19 states that detail party affiliation, data from the U.S. Elections Project shows. Republicans accounted for 26%, and voters with no party affiliation, 24%.
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Over the past two weeks, Republicans chipped away at the Democratic lead as early in-person voting exploded in Texas, Florida and North Carolina. Among the states that release party identification data of voters, Republicans made up 42% of the in-person early voters; Democratic voters, 36%.
On Oct. 12, Democrats led Republican in overall votes nationally, 55% to 34%, according to TargetSmart, but Republicans have narrowed the advantage each day since.
? In Florida, Democrats accounted for 40% of the state's 8.3 million early votes, Republicans made up 38% and voters with no party affiliation 21%, the U.S. Elections Project found. Democrats returned 46% of the state's absentee ballots, while Republicans returned 31%. The numbers flipped for in-person voting: 46% for Republicans and 32% for Democrats.
?In North Carolina, Democrats returned more than twice the mail ballots as Republicans, 46% of the 884,000 absentee ballots to 20% for Republicans. Unlike Florida, Democrats narrowly edged Republicans in in-person early voting, 36% to 35%, and 29% of the state's early in-person voters had no party affiliation. More than 4.3 million North Carolinians voted early.
?In Pennsylvania, Democrats accounted for a massive 68% of the 2.3 million returned mail ballots, more than three times the 22% made up by Republicans. (Pennsylvania does not have traditional in-person early voting but does have early in-person absentee voting.)
Because of the disparity in Pennsylvania, Trump is likely to jump out to a large lead on election night as in-person Election Day results, likely to favor him, are posted. Biden probably will begin erasing the gap as absentee ballots are tallied, which could take days because Pennsylvania does not start processing them until Election Day.
"In a place like Pennsylvania, what he'll need to do from a turnout perspective will be substantial," perhaps topping Biden by 45 percentage points in Election Day voting, Bonier said of Trump. "In others states, like Florida, where there has been more of a Republican turnout operation and they've been able to take advantage of early in-person voting, the margins will certainly be less than that."
For months, polls showed mail-in voting would favor Biden and Election Day would favor Trump. How it ultimately breaks down could decide the election.
Biden maintains a 52%-44% lead over Trump nationally, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released last week. Of the 33% of voters who say they plan to vote on Election Day, 48% are Republicans and 20% are Democrats.
Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster who has worked for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, said Republicans have "quickly closed the gaps" that Democrats built via mail voting.
"This is what we expected, and we also expect Republicans will cast many more votes than Democrats on Election Day," he said. "The GOP advantage on Election Day will likely be biggest in states without extensive or easy in-person early voting and smaller in states like Texas which have lots of in-person early vote available."
Despite their success in mail voting overall, he pointed to "warning signs for Democrats" in turnout among Hispanic voters in Miami and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas.
"It may well all come down to Pennsylvania, and if it does, we may not know what happened for days and days," Wilson said.
Trump campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager downplayed Democrats' early voting advantage, saying voting by mail is what Biden and Democrats "told them to do for months."
"But Biden is simply cannibalizing his Election Day vote and not bringing in new voters," she said. The Trump campaign "knows who our voters are, where they are and that they overwhelmingly want to vote in person on Election Day."
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In some states, Trump needs to ensure his voters turn out even as coronavirus cases rise. Wisconsin reported more than 5,300 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, Michigan reported 3,434, Minnesota 3,155 and Iowa 2,741.
Spokesman TJ Ducklo said the Biden campaign is "encouraged" by early voting numbers, "but the job is not finished. We know Donald Trump will have a big turnout on Election Day, and we are going to ensure that our supporters who are showing up on Election Day are able to cast their ballots safely."
Ducklo said the Biden campaign will wage an "aggressive effort at every level of our campaign" through Election Day to "ensure we have the kind of turnout that will send Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House."
Even amid the COVID-19 spikes, Trump has gotten large crowds in outdoor rallies in each of the four states the past week. He will need more than just his diehard supporters to show up Tuesday.
"It's really putting all of the eggs into the Election Day basket," Michael McDonald, associate professor of political science at the University of Florida, who manages the United States Elections Project, said in October. "The Trump campaign is going to have to hope that all of their voters show up on Election Day, and that's risky."
Bonier turned to a sports analogy.
"Republicans are counting on having the ball last and putting together a winning drive on Election Day. The question is, are they starting that drive from their own 2-yard line and need to go 98 yards? Or are they a little bit closer? ... At this point, it does appear that they've got a long ways to go."
Reach Joey Garrison on Twitter @joeygarrison.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump must dominate Election Day vote after Democrats led early voting