Democrats privately worry the Teamsters non-endorsement is a warning sign

PHILADELPHIA — Eight years after Donald Trump shattered the Blue Wall, some Democrats worry he could do it again.

Most polls show Kamala Harris tied or leading Trump in the critical battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin after a commanding performance at the debate. Party leaders are projecting confidence publicly. But on the ground, jittery elected officials, strategists and allies are quietly pointing to warning signs for the vice president.

The Teamsters withholding an endorsement from Harris this week — after internal polling showed most respondents backing Trump — is sparking fresh concerns that the GOP nominee could have higher-than-expected support among union members, especially men. Labor leaders in other sectors attest that, like in 2016 and 2020, the former president has maintained a grip on key parts of their rank-and-file despite his anti-union record. Privately, Democrats say Harris still has work to do to win over older, white, working-class voters who make up a large portion of the electorate in the Rust Belt and have been hit by high prices.

“Candidly, Trump has a solid, solid base of working-class people that have bought into his message,” said Jimmy Williams, president of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, which has endorsed Harris. “It’s movable and it's been moving. But it's not like some tide that's turned.”

Some Teamsters leaders have questioned the methodology of the polling showing Trump winning majority support among the union’s members. But one pro-Harris union official, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, spoke in dire terms about it. The person said it is a “red flag” that is reminiscent of the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton underperformed among union households despite winning the majority of top labor endorsements.

“Hard not to have HRC flashbacks right now, to be honest, that stuff might be wrong beneath the surface,” the official said. “I hope it's not."

Democratic strategists said Harris’ performance in November could come down to the historic gender gap, especially among blue-collar voters, that has so far defined this election.

Pete Giangreco, a longtime Democratic consultant who has worked on several presidential campaigns, said he is “optimistic” about Harris’ standing because women decisively support her.

“The good news is that she’s doing better than most Democrats ever have with white non-college women. But the bad news is that with white non-college men, we’re seeing a step back,” he said. “The gender gap is growing wider because those groups are heading in two different directions, and how does it net out? We’ve got 47 days to figure that out.”

Democrats in swing states said another factor at play is that Harris is an unknown quantity to many older white voters. Some argued that Harris is not hitting Trump enough over past comments — which he has sought to walk back — threatening Social Security and Medicare.

“I’m worried about her with [seniors] … most of all, I just think they don't know her,” said a Pennsylvania Democratic elected official, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “She should be coming in on Medicare and Social Security like non-fucking-stop.”

Another top Democratic elected official in Pennsylvania said: “How much time do you hear the top of the ticket talking about that issue? Almost nothing. They just have to talk about it more.”

In an interview with POLITICO Playbook, Harris senior adviser Brian Fallon noted that a number of Teamsters councils and locals in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and other battleground states unveiled endorsements of the vice president this week. “So you've seen huge expressions of support from the rank and file in the form of the locals that have announced in just the last 24 hours,” he said.

When it comes to the question of winning over more working-class white voters, Fallon said, “I will make a prediction. I think that it's quite possible that by the end of this election cycle that she'll be more trusted than Trump on handling the economy.”

On the campaign trail, Harris has promised to fight price gouging and expressed sympathy for voters dealing with high prices. The vast majority of top national unions have thrown their support behind her, and her labor allies have touted that she is a leader in a pro-union administration.

The Harris campaign also pointed to TV and digital advertising that attacks Trump for planning “severe cuts to Medicare and Social Security,” as well as the fact that the vice president has made a similar argument during campaign stops and at the Democratic National Convention. And Democrats said they are heartened by the fact that Harris has been campaigning in exurban and rural areas in battleground states where older, white, working-class voters live.

But Democratic pollsters also noted public surveys that show Republicans drawing nearly even with their party in handling Social Security and Medicare. One poll, conducted on behalf of the labor-aligned Alliance for Retired Americans, found that Democrats had just a 1- to 2-percentage point advantage on those issues compared with the GOP. The group's pollster described it as “concerningly tight, given the party’s historic advantages on these issues,” according to a memo released last month.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans have sent out numerous mailers to voters alleging that Trump will protect Social Security and Medicare, while Harris will “bankrupt” the programs due to an “amnesty plan for illegals.”

Fact-checkers said the claims are false. But some Democrats are concerned they’re nonetheless persuasive.

“When races are decided by thousands of votes, and you see a warning sign, like numbers on Social Security and Medicare, you need to take it seriously,” said Jason McGrath, a Democratic pollster who led the survey. “If we do win back or persuade seniors, it’s on that issue in particular.”

In Michigan, former Democratic Rep. Andy Levin said “working-class people, in general, I think will definitely determine the election, and I think that we’re going to duke it out right to the end.” He argued that United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain’s endorsement of Harris is a major asset in his swing state: “He will help Democrats cut into Trump’s numbers with white, non-college men.”

One Democratic strategist in Michigan said Trump’s advantages with that cohort — and plans to activate them across the Blue Wall states — are obvious. Trump held a town hall in Flint, Mich. earlier this week.

“This is not a secret,” the person said. "In Michigan, one of [Harris’] particular challenges is with white working-class men in the I-75 corridor from Detroit to Flint. … She's got to shore up those voters."

Both Harris and Trump met with Teamsters President Sean O’Brien and other Teamsters members in an effort to win the union’s backing. In a statement, Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, “By unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a stronger footing for generations to come.”

Officials in President Joe Biden’s administration acknowledge disappointment that the Teamsters didn’t offer an endorsement of Harris, particularly after the president took action to protect the pensions of the union’s workers and retirees, according to a senior aide not authorized to speak publicly. Harris cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate for that bailout, which was included in the American Rescue Plan.

Still, the Teamsters’ snub didn’t come as a complete surprise after O’Brien spoke at the Republican National Convention over the summer when Biden was still the nominee, angering many Democrats. O’Brien, who has described himself as a “lifelong Democrat,” said he also wanted to talk at the Democratic National Convention. He was not invited to do so, though some rank-and-file Teamsters retirees were instead.

In what was perhaps a sign that the endorsement was not seen as obtainable for the Democratic ticket, neither Biden nor his senior aides directly lobbied the Teamsters national leaders to support Harris — or himself when he was running — according to Biden officials. Instead, Biden aides back-channeled with Teamsters allies outside of the board on behalf of both the president and Harris.

Still, the Teamsters’ internal survey results showing apparently strong member support for Trump surprised even some union leaders. Bill Carroll, president of Teamsters Joint Council 39 in Wisconsin, said he was "shocked" when he saw the polling, though he added he nearly missed the response deadline and thinks pro-Harris members may not have known about it.

But, he said, “Maybe we haven’t conveyed the importance of good labor policy, federally, and what that means for our members. We need to find a way to show them the bigger picture.”

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a Teamsters ally, agreed that more work has to be done to win over blue-collar voters. He said both parties had contributed to “the hollowing out of manufacturing,” leading to anger and distrust in the working class.

“I think we need to show that we have a vision for bringing manufacturing back, for bringing new industry to America,” he said. “Obama did it. And so, I mean, I think it's very doable.”

Jonathan Lemire, Nick Niedzwiadek, Brittany Gibson and Eli Stokols contributed to this report.