Despite defeat, Caleb Rudow’s campaign wasn’t in vain, political experts say

ASHEVILLE — Henderson County Republican Chuck Edwards’ win over Democratic opponent Caleb Rudow in the race to represent North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District came as no surprise.

The district, which covers the state’s 15 western-most counties, is staunchly conservative.

Chris Cooper, a professor of political science and public affairs at Western Carolina University, told the Citizen Times on Nov. 6 a victory by Rudow, who currently serves in the N.C. House of Representatives, wouldn’t have dominated just local headlines, but national ones, too.

“It would have been certainly the biggest upset that happened,” Cooper said.

Despite defeat, early voting data indicates Rudow’s efforts likely benefitted other Democratic candidates on the ballot.

Based on preliminary data, according to Cooper, the three North Carolina counties where former President Donald Trump’s support waned the most in 2024 were all in District 11, specifically Buncombe, Henderson and Transylvania counties.

“If part of the goal of a Caleb Rudow campaign was to drive Democratic turnout in some of N.C. 11, it appears to have been successful," he said.

Addressing his supporters Nov. 5, Rudow, 38, acknowledged how difficult the race would be against Edwards, 64, a first-term congressman.

“I got in this from the beginning because I knew the challenge, and I knew somebody had to run, and I knew our race could help all the amazing Democrats up and down the ballot,” Rudow said.

‘A recipe for success’

Ashley Moraguez, a political science professor at UNC-Asheville, told the Citizen Times that given the political makeup of the district, it would prove difficult for a Democratic candidate to pose a real challenge to Edwards in the near future.

Based on Moraguez’s early analysis, Edwards outperformed Trump in every single county in the district, which she said suggests some voters split their tickets. They voted for Edwards while also casting ballots for another presidential candidate, like Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, or someone from a third party.

She said Tropical Storm Helene may have been one factor.

In the immediate aftermath of the storm, which swept through WNC on Sept. 27, Edwards spoke out in defense of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, debunking myths that were spreading around the region about the agency’s relief efforts. By Edwards’ own admission, he’s been “wearing muddy boots, visiting communities, trying to find resources for people that have been affected by the storm.”

Moraguez said Edwards’ efforts, which at times were at odds with Trump’s claims about the relief effort on the ground, may have worked to his advantage, even though Edwards didn't hold strong on his position.

On Oct. 21, two weeks before Election Day, when Trump arrived in Swannanoa to survey storm damage, Edwards stood behind the former president and remained largely silent when Trump repeated false claims about FEMA.

Then in the final days leading up to the election, Edwards told the Citizen Times that he was now “extremely disappointed” in FEMA and that oversight of the agency appeared to be broken.

“I think the real problem starts there, in that FEMA is not truly accountable to Congress,” Edwards said Nov. 1.

Though both Rudow and Edwards vowed to rebuild WNC if elected, Edwards received more than 56% of the vote.

Despite the results, Democrats should continue pushing quality candidates in District 11, Moraguez said, if not for a long-shot chance to regain a congressional seat Democrats haven't held since 2012, then to bolster other Democratic candidates' chances at winning.

In Buncombe County, Rudow’s canvassing efforts likely helped down-ballot candidates like Democrat Lindsey Prather, who narrowly won reelection to the N.C. House in a newly redrawn district.

“Rudow really gave a recipe for success for Democrats moving forward,” Morguez said.

More: Buncombe NC House, Senate: Mayfield and 3 Democrats win; State Sen. Daniel beats Ager

More: US Rep. Chuck Edwards defeats Caleb Rudow, earning 2nd term in Congress

Jacob Biba is the county watchdog reporter at the Asheville Citizen Times. Reach him at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Even in defeat, Caleb Rudow’s campaign helped down-ballot candidates